NIDIS Southeast U.S. Drought Early Warning Information System Planning Meeting

1. NIDISSoutheast U.S. Drought Early Warning Information System Planning Meeting July 21-22 Chapel Hill, NC Jeffrey L. Payne Deputy Director NOAA Coastal Services Center

2. The Regional Connection in NOAA • NOAA’s regional collaboration • 8 regional teams • Goals: • Improved services for the benefit of NOAA’s customers • Increased value and productivity of partnerships • Improved stakeholder relations and support • Improved internal communications and efficiency across NOAA’s existing organizational structure • And…Sea Grant, Regional Climate Centers, Cooperative Institutes, IOOS Regional Associations, NOAA line offices, RISAs (CISA; SCC), Regional Ocean Governance…

3. Role of Regional Collaboration in Climate Services • Engage stakeholders and value context (long-term) • Understand regionally-specific climate issues and needs • Facilitate a shared vision of service and a one-NOAA (and beyond) approach • Bring appropriate parts of NOAA to bear • Promote awareness and understanding of capabilities within region (NOAA and external)

4. Climate Change/Drought and Southeastern Coastal States Impacts • Demographics and socio-economics – more people, economic activity and infrastructure at risk • Changing water levels – erosion, aquifer depletion, saline intrusion, loss of protective features • Precipitation and temperature patterns – drought, fire, freshwater supply and quality, movement of nutrients and pollutants, sediment transport • Ecosystem integrity and demand for ecosystem services – provisioning, regulating and supporting services; living resources and habitats; invasive species; disease carriers; land use

5. Understanding and Addressing Impacts: Illustrative Needs • Systems approach – to modeling and observing regions and cities (physical processes, social infrastructure, human practices) • Monitoring data, predictions and projections – consistent baseline data, standards, trusted results, evaluation of effectiveness • Risk and vulnerability assessment – information on risks associated with extreme and chronic events (drought) and impacts (social, economic, structural) to provide science foundation for evaluating adaptation strategies and investment options • Decision support tools, maps and visualizations – usefulness of information for public works investments (resilient siting and design), green infrastructure, and relocation considerations • Communication, literacy and capacity – contextualize for scale and culture; integrate physical, natural and socioeconomic information; build capacity; uncertainty; awareness of risks and benefits of actions

6. Climate and Regional:Illustrative Activities • Southeast • NIDIS Early Warning System for the SE Drought Workshop; ecosystem and water quality impacts (Apr 08) • SE Natural Resource Leadership Group Workshop on Adapting to Climate Change in the SE (May 08) • Coastal Carolinas Ecosystem Services and Human Well-Being Workshop (with EPA), including climate change impacts on ecosystem services (Jan 09) • Development of the South Atlantic Alliance – community resilience to hazards and climate change one of four priorities • Integration with NOAA climate portals; distributing climate related tools, training, data, and resources • HMT-SE workshops (Feb 09 and June 09)

7. Importance of Partnerships • Strengthen relationships with NOAA extramural partners as enablers • Estuarine Research Reserves, Regional Climate Centers, Fishery Management Councils, Cooperative Institutes, RISAs, Cooperative Observers, Coastal Zone Management Programs • Leverage associations and governance structures • Integrated Ocean Observing System Regional Association • Assoc. of State Floodplain Managers; State Emergency Management Assoc. • Regional Ocean Governance • Nurture grassroots, regional and interagency activities • NOAA in the Carolinas • Sea Grant-sponsored regional research priorities planning • Southeast Regional Partnership for Planning and Sustainability (SERPPAS) • Promote interactions with less-traditional partners • Land trusts; alternative agriculture sector; green infrastructure • National Association of Counties • U.S. Chambers of Commerce

8. Backup SlidesAdditional Information

9. Expanded Description of Coastal Projects Proposed for Climate Portal • Climate Training/Toolkit • Stephanie Fauver (CSC) • Cathy Angell (NERR) • Eventually to be an online training • as part of a toolkit • First effort is Padilla Bay Workshop • Coastal No Adverse • Impact Toolkit • Audra Luscher (CSC) • Currently a training/handbook focused • on hazards, not necessarily climate change • Could incorporate modules based on SLR • adaptation – logical place to start • Will likely have FY10 opportunities • for collaboration NOAA Climate Portal Dave Eslinger (CSC) • Communicating • Climate Change and • Scientific Uncertainty • Dave MacNeill (NY SG) • Literature review of peer-reviewed • publications relating to • communicating uncertainty • Bibliography available shortly • Climate Change • Adaptation Guidebook • Allison Castellan(OCRM) • Estimated completion in February 09 • Strategies and approaches to • adaptation for coastal managers • Coastal Community Planning • and Development Training • Tricia Ryan (CSC) • Revision of CSC/SG/EPA smart growth training • course to include resilience • Climate Adaptation • Website • Stephanie Fauver (CSC) • Estimated completion in ?? Nationally Applicable Tools and Training

10. Expanded Description of Coastal Projects Proposed for Climate Portal • Great Lakes – Prep for • Climate Change • Rochelle Sturtevant (Sea Grant) • looking at Lake level dropping and impacts • to socio/economic/physical/etc. impacts NOAA Climate Portal Dave Eslinger (CSC) • Great Lakes Climate • Change & Coastal Habitats w/TNC • Lindy Dingerson (CSC) • Examining coastal habitat impacts of lowered • Lake levels – wetlands, grasses • Focus on segments of shoreline • in Lake Ontario • Coastal Inundation • Mapping Training • Doug Marcy (CSC) • two-day course, targeted at certified floodplain • managers, National Weather Service personnel, • and county, state, and municipal officials, teaches • participants about coastal inundation issues • and spatial techniques for mapping inundation • North Carolina SLR work • Carol Auer (NCCOS) • Impacts of SLR on coastal habitats • a coastal flooding model • Habitat simulation module • sedimentation vs plant growth • GIS-based predictive tool • all inclusive landscape model Predicting Impacts of Water Level Changes