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“Arab Climate Resilience Initiative”. First Regional Consultation Meeting. “The Impacts Of Climate Change On ِ Water Resources ” Damascus, The Arab Republic of Syria 15-16 September 2010. Dr. Naif Abu-Lohom Prof. Dr. Abdulla Babaqi Water & Environment Centre (WEC), Sana’a University

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slide1

“Arab Climate Resilience Initiative”

First Regional Consultation Meeting

“The Impacts Of Climate Change On ِ WaterResources ”

Damascus, The Arab Republic of Syria

15-16 September 2010.

Dr. Naif Abu-Lohom

Prof. Dr. Abdulla Babaqi

Water & Environment Centre (WEC), Sana’a University

Republic of Yemen

slide2

Contents

  • Background Information
  • Yemen’s Climate Change Profile
  • Challenges in Water Sector
  • Scenarios of Climate Change Impact on water sector
  • Main National Policies, Projects, Activities Undertaken to Address CC
  • Recommendation to Mitigate and adopt with CC Impacts
  • Opportunities for Interventions at Different Levels:
  • (Technical, Policy, Institutional, Support of Local Communities, etc)
slide3

Background Information

  • Yemen signed UNFCCC in 1992 and ratified it in May 1996.
  • Ratified Kyoto Protocol in September 2004.
  • Established CDM Committee in 2007.
slide4

Yemen Climate Change Profile

  • UNESCO (1979), classified Yemen into 4 Climatic Zones:

Hyper- Arid Zone

Rainfall < 50 mm/Y

Arid Zone (Rainfall = 100 – 250 mm/Y

Semi Arid Zone

Rainfall = 250 – 500 mm/Y

Sub-Humid Zone

Rainfall > 500 mm/Y

slide5

Yemen Climate Change Profile

Temperature Trend

  • Historical data (since 1970) indicate Warming become greater for summer(+0.2°C/decade) than winter (+0.15°C/decade).
  • According to IPCC report, Yemen is expected to warm by 3-4°C by 2080s which is roughly 1.5 times the global mean response

Rainfall Variability In Yemen

  • The average total annual precipitation recorded for about 100 years show variability but without an obvious and unpredictable trend
  • The extreme events are increasingly becoming a source of concern
  • (Hadramout & AlmahraFloods).
slide6

Rainfall Variability In Sana’a City

  • The Fig. depicts the spatial distribution of rainfall in Sana’a City measured at four stations
  • It shows significant differences in total rainfall over a period Jan. – July 2007
slide7

Hadhramout Flood,

25th October, 2008

  • The flooding comes after more than a full day of rain in Yemen, which normally receives only a few inches of rain per year.
  • A flash floods have claimed the lives of more than 140 persons and left more than 20,000 without shelter in the Hadramout and Maharah Governorates
slide8

Vulnerable Sectors

to Climate Change Impacts

  • INC & NAPA identified 5 main sectors vulnerable to climate change
  • Impacts:
    • Water Resources
    • Agriculture
    • Coastal Zone
    • Biodiversity
    • Health and Tourism
challenges in water sector
Challenges In Water Sector
  • Increased water scarcity and reduced water quality
  • Per capita annual water resources of only 120 m3
  • 10% of regional average and 2% of global average
  • Over-exploitation of GW (3-8 meters/year annual drop in most of the basins)
  • Annual Abstraction in SB exceeds 4 times the recharge
  • Irrigated area has expanded from 37,000 to about 1,200,000 ha
  • Agriculture use more than 90 % of Water Resources
  • Decrease Water Supply in most of the main cities (Sana’a, Taiz,Amran.)
  • Increase water conflicts.
  • Low irrigation water use efficiency (20-40%)
  • Institutional and implementation capacity challenges for groundwater management
water status in yemen

Total renewable water: 2.1 Bm3/y. Total water use: 3.0 Bm3/y

Deficit: 900 Mm3/y

Water status in Yemen
  • Excessive Pumping
  • Flood Irrigation
  • ََِQat trees
slide11

Impacts of Climate Change in Groundwater

  • Three simplified CC scenarios of the impacts of CC on groundwater for the period 2025 up to 2080s were developed (WEC & HR Wallingford, 2010) . This study financed by the World Bank in the framework of NAPA programe:
      • A “hot and dry” scenario
      • A “mid” scenario,
      • A “warm and wet” Scenario
  • These scenarios were developed based on the collected baseline data (1961-2000) i.e. :
  • Average annual Temperature
  • Average annual rainfall
  • 3. 15 Global Climate Model (GCM)
slide12

Scenarios

Broad Characterization

  • Expectations:
  • - warming (1 to 1.6 °C)
  • An increase in rainfall
  • An increase in Runoff and recharge
  • Expectations:
  • Considerable warming (1.6 to 3.1 °C)
  • No significant change in rainfall
  • Expectations:
  • Decrease Rainfall,
  • Decline of runoff and recharge
  • Temp. may become too high (2 to 4.5 °C)

Change in annual rainfall %

Warming Degree C

slide13

Prospects of GW Abstraction & Climate Change

impacts for Yemen as a Whole

By 2025 GW reserves will be exhausted & abstraction will equal recharge

After 2025, the GLshows the extraction levels that would be consistent with current rates of recharge + the extra resource available from increased recharge under the ‘warm & wet’ scenario.

The Red Line is common to all scenarios up to 2025

The RL after

2025 traces:

Drop in recharge & abstractions

below current recharge levels under Hot & Dry Scenario

Average GW Recharge Baseline

slide14

Main National Policies Undertaken to Address the CC

  • The Initial National Communication (INC) on CC was prepared on April, 2001
  • The National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA, Yemen) was prepared on 2008 and endorsed by Cabinet in March 2009.
  • The Second National Communication (SNC) on CC was prepared on 2007- 09.
  • Some Relevant Existing national and sectoral strategies and plans
  • Poverty Reduction Strategy, Vision 2025.
  • National Water Sector Strategy and Investment Programme (NWSSIP)
  • Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plans
  • Health and Environment Strategy
  • Environmental Impact Assessment Policy
  • World Bank Country Assistance Strategy (CAS)
  • Establishment of Inter-ministerial CC Commission/Board, 2009:
  • (MWE, MAI, MoF, MLA, MFW, MoT, MTIT, EPA, NWRA)
slide15

Previous Projects

Related to CC

  • - National Level:
  • A Study on climate change scenarios projections (2008/09)
  • National Capacity Self Assessment for climate change, biodiversity and combating desertification
  • National Probabilistic Risks Assessment
  • Hadramout and Al Mahra Probabilistic Risks Assessment
  • - Local Level:
  • Municipality of Sana’a Natural Disaster Risk Evaluation and Urban Planning
  • Sana’a Integrated Storm water Management Plan
  • Adapting to Water Scarcity for Yemen’s Vulnerable Communities:
  • (Case studies of Sana\'a Basin , Sada’a Basin and Aden City)
slide16

On-going Projects

Related to CC

  • Climate impacts on water resource management and agriculture (W. Bank)
  • Climate impacts on Agrobiodiversity (World Bank)
  • Rainfed Areas Livestock Project
  • Agro-biodiversity and Adaptation Project
  • Water Sector Support Program
  • Groundwater and Soil Conservation Project (World Bank)
  • Sana’a Basin Water Management Project
  • Integrated Coastal Zone Management
  • Irrigation Improvement Project

Planned Projects Related to CC

  • Pilot Project for Climate Resilience (PPCR)
slide17

Recommendations to Mitigate and Adopt with Climate Change Impacts

  • Improving governance through transparency and an active civil society role,
  • Capacity Building and awareness Programme at all levels
  • Empowering rural communities so that they can participate in assessments and feed in their knowledge to provide useful climate information;
  • Integrate climate resilience into the design of new infrastructure for irrigation and flood control
  • Developing an early warning systems which can help to anticipate and prevent disasters
  • Integrating climate change impacts into economic planning for the national budget.
slide18

The opportunities for interventions

1. Technical Opportunities : WR management and agriculture

  • Updating knowledge on critical basins to determine safe yields and storage capacities of aquifers and surface water resources.
  • Upgrading the network of hydro-meteorological monitoring stations; collating relevant agricultural, social and economic datasets to enhance understanding of the system
  • Developing and use appropriate tools such as Decision Support System DSS at different levels (Catchment, Basin, County)
  • Developing robust climate models that reduce the degree of uncertainty in national and regional climate prediction.
  •  Conducting Remote sensing and ground-truthing studies to identify the relationship between climate and change in water resources, food security and agriculture.
slide19

The opportunities for interventions

1. Technical Opportunities : WR management and Agriculture

slide20

The opportunities for interventions

2. Policies, Institutional and Capacity Building:

  • Establishing a CC strategy endorsed by Cabinet and in consistence with available strategies
  • Accelerating formation of National Committee for CC adaptationand representing all concern agencies
  • Mainstreaming of climate change issues into all local, sub – national, national, and sectorial planning processes
  • Building institutional and technical capacity in the MWE, including NWRA, the water utilities and GARWSP to better integrate climate change concerns into water strategies and policies.
  • Ensuring close cooperation among various agencies with interests in the water sector, including MAI, MWE, NWRA, EPA, the water utilities, GARWSP, and CAMA.
  • Revision and development of Water Resources plans according to CC impacts
  • Staff Capacity Building and provision of a suitable environment to perform their tasks
slide21

The opportunities for interventions

  • 3. Support of Local Community-:
  • Investing in public awareness campaign of local communities about CC impacts & adaptation
  • Promote Capacity building of lo identify priorities and adaption with CC
  • Involve local communities (LC, WUA) in planning and implementation process of pilot projects
  • Improve livelihood of local communities through implementation of certain activities based on areas priorities
  • Exchange experiences between community
  • representatives in different topographical areas
  • Documentation of the local traditional, indigenous
  • knowledge and use it for CC adaptation
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