Regional future O 3 and PM 2.5 levels & components over US Future emissions Future climate

1. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON US AIR QUALITY: EXAMINATION OF OZONE AND FINE PARTICULATE MATTER CONCENTRATIONS AND THEIR SENSITIVITY TO EMISSION CHANGES Tagaris Efthimios1, Kuo-Jen Liao1, Kasemsan Manomaiphiboon1, Armistead G. Russell1, Jung-Hun Woo2, Shan He2, Praveen Amar2, Lai-Yung (Ruby) Leung3 1School of Civil and Env. Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology,Atlanta, GA 2NESCAUM, Boston, MA 3Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA

2. Regional future O3 and PM2.5 levels & components over US • Future emissions • Future climate grids: 147 x 111 resolution: 36 x 36 km

3. Methodology Simulating period: Historic yearly data: 2001 Future yearly data: 2050 Air quality modeling conducted using: CMAQ –DDM and Downscaling meteorology (GISS-GCM) using MM5 Emissions: 2001: US: Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) 2001 Canada: Environment Canada 2000 Mexico: US EPA’s 1999 BRAVO 2050: IPCC-A1B emissions scenario and CAIR 2020

4. Modeling approach GCM: Global Climate Model EI: Emission Inventory

5. Are 2001 and 2050 representative years? Temperature

6. Are 2001 and 2050 representative years? Temperature

7. Are 2001 and 2050 representative years? Temperature

8. Are 2001 and 2050 representative years? Temperature

9. Temperature 2000 2001 2002 2049 2050 2051

10. Humidity 2001 2050 Rain 2001 2050

11. Evaluation Temperature A general under prediction in 2001 annual temperature Better performance during summer months and worst during fall, caused by the high mesoscale variability during seasonal transition.

12. Evaluation O3 Mean annual M8hO3 concentration is slightly (10%) over-predicted. Model performance for the mean annual PM2.5 concentrations is region dependent PM2.5

13. Emissions NOx: -50% VOC’s: +2% PM2.5: -10% SO2: -50% NH3: +7%

14. Prediction Temperature +2.3K +1.4K +1.5K +2.0K +1.3K +1.7K Maximum warming during fall months (up to 4.8 degrees in the West region)

15. Prediction O3 PM2.5

17. O3_2001 O3_2050 O3_2050 - O3_2001

18. O3_2001 O3_2050 O3_2050 - O3_2050np O3_2050 - O3_2001 np: Emission Inventory 2001, Climate 2050

19. PM2.5_2001 PM2.5_2050 PM2.5_2050 - PM2.5_2001

20. PM2.5_2001 PM2.5_2050 PM2.5_2050 - PM2.5_2001 PM2.5_2050 - PM2.5_2050np np: Emission Inventory 2001, Climate 2050

21. Sensitivity O3

22. PM2.5

23. Conclusions • Combining both emission changes and climate change future O3 and PM2.5 concentrations over the US are expected to be lower but the effects are more pronounced for regional PM2.5 concentrations • The contributions of anthropogenic NOx to O3 formation are more important than biogenic VOCs. Reduction in anthropogenic NOx emissions will continue to be effective for reducing regional ozone concentrations • Organic carbon as the most important PM2.5 component • Contributions of biogenic VOC emissions to PM2.5 formation are simulated to be more important in the future • Regionally the Eastern US benefits more than the rest of the regions • Emission controls have larger impact than climate change

24. Future plans • Uncertainties in regional air quality and its sensitivities due to climate change uncertainties Acknowledgement This work was supported by the US EPA for STAR grant RD-83096001

25. Supporting materials

26. C o + Co ∆C p Cp + E Ep Eo E DDM Brute Force (BF): S = ∆C / ∆E Decoupled Direct Method (DDM): S = C / E

27. NO2_2001 NO2_2050 NO2_2050 - NO2_2001

28. NOx_Jun 2001 NOx_Jun 2050 Emissions VOC_Jun 2001 VOC_Jun 2050

30. np: Emission Inventory 2001, Climate 2050

31. np: Emission Inventory 2001, Climate 2050

32. SO4-_2001 SO4-_2050 SO4-_2050 - SO4-_2001

33. OC_2001 OC_2050 EC_2001 EC_2050

35. The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building, and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family develops into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system. The three A1 groups are distinguished by their technological emphasis: fossil intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy sources (A1T), or a balance across all sources(A1B) The A2 storyline and scenario family describes a very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is self-reliance and preservation of local identities. Fertility patterns across regions converge very slowly, which results in continuously increasing global population. Economic development is primarily regionally oriented and per capita economic growth and technological change are more fragmented and slower than in other storylines

36. The B1 storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same global population that peaks in midcentury and declines thereafter, as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity, and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives The B2 storyline and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability. It is a world with continuously increasing global population at a rate lower than A2, intermediate levels of economic development, and less rapid and more diverse technological change than in the B1 and A1 storylines. While the scenario is also oriented toward environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels