Modeling future land use regional climate and maize yields in east africa
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University of Dar Es Salaam. B43H-03. Modeling Future Land Use, Regional Climate, and Maize Yields in East Africa. Nathan Moore, B Pijanowski, B Lofgren, G Alagarswamy, J Andresen, J Olson. Fundamental Research Question:. What is the nature and magnitude of climate-land interactions?

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Modeling Future Land Use, Regional Climate, and Maize Yields in East Africa

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Modeling future land use regional climate and maize yields in east africa

University of Dar Es Salaam

B43H-03

Modeling Future Land Use, Regional Climate, and Maize Yields in East Africa

Nathan Moore, B Pijanowski, B Lofgren, G Alagarswamy, J Andresen, J Olson


Modeling future land use regional climate and maize yields in east africa

Fundamental Research Question:

What is the nature and magnitude of climate-land interactions?

GCM versus RCM

IPCC, radiative forcings

Coupling human and natural systems


Focused questions motivation

Focused Questions/Motivation

Question 1: What are likely Climate Change and Land Cover Change Impacts on Future East African Agriculture?

Question 2: Is Land Cover/Land Use Change asimportant as Greenhouse Gas Concentrations at the Regional Scale?


Conceptual framework of the modeling system

Herding,

Agriculture,

Urban, Irrigation, etc

Human Systems

Land Use & Land Cover

Effects on Agriculture

Surface

Characteristics

Climate

Conceptual Framework of the Modeling System

Many pathways

Spatial scales / temporal scales / uncertainty


Modeling future land use regional climate and maize yields in east africa

Upper Embu coffee & maize farms --- slopes of Mt. Kenya


Major data sources and models

Major Data Sources and Models

  • Land Use: Historical LUC studies, Africover. Model: Land Transformation Model (LTM)

  • Land Cover: GLC 2000, MODIS fc & LAI (seasonal)

  • Climate: CCSM 3.0 boundary conditions, RAMS 4.4, Worldclim station data, ECHAM5, HadCM3

  • NPP Models: CERES/Maize, LPJ


What changes do we expect in agricultural land cover

What changes do we expect in agricultural land cover?

Land cover in 2000 Land cover in 2050 (projected)

Lowered roughness, higher moisture


4 experiments for exploring climate and landscape effects

4 experiments for exploring climate and landscape effects

Land CoverGlobal ClimateComparison:

1: CurrentCurrentBaseline

2: Current2050 decadeFuture climate effects only

3: 2050 decadeCurrentFuture land cover effects only

4: 2050 decade2050 decadeSynergistic effects


Results from the 4 experiments

Results from the 4 experiments

  • Focus on Differences:

  • Future Climate Effects (2-1)

  • B. Land Cover/Land Use Effects (3-1)

  • C. Synergistic Effects (4-1)


Modeling future land use regional climate and maize yields in east africa

Differences in Precipitation

Climate Change Land Cover/Land Use Synergistic Effects

Effects Change (LCLUC) Effects


Modeling future land use regional climate and maize yields in east africa

Differences in Temperature

Climate Change LCLUC Synergistic Effects

Effects Effects


Modeling future land use regional climate and maize yields in east africa

Differences in Latent Heat Flux

Climate Change LCLUC Synergistic Effects

Effects Effects

(7.8 W/m2) (-2.8 W/m2) (8.6 W/m2)


Wind pattern changes due to lcluc

Wind pattern changes due to LCLUC


Modeling future land use regional climate and maize yields in east africa

Herding,

Agriculture,

Urban, Irrigation, etc

Human Systems

Effects on Agriculture

Land Use & Land Cover

Surface

Characteristics

Climate

Projected D in Maize Yield

Climate and Landscape Forcings

Q1: Impacts on African Agriculture


Modeling future land use regional climate and maize yields in east africa

Relative Impact of Greenhouse Gases

vs. Land Use Change


Summary

Summary

Tharaka, Kenya

Land Use and Climate may have strong impacts on East African Agriculture, and thus on humans (feedbacks)

Land Cover/Land Use may have impacts on the same scale as elevated Greenhouse Gas Concentrations, but highly localized effects


Coupling human systems to land use land cover

Herding,

Agriculture,

Urban, Irrigation, etc

Human Systems

Land Use & Land Cover

Effects on Crops, Disease,Ecosystems, etc

Surface

Characteristics

Climate

Coupling Human Systems to Land Use/Land Cover


Conclusion

Conclusion

  • Potential problems related toagricultural futures in Africa

  • Relative roles of greenhouses gases versus Land Cover/Land Use Change on climate

  • Interdisciplinary issues of societal import; continuing savannas research


Surface characteristics influencing climate

Herding,

Agriculture,

Urban, Irrigation, etc

Human Systems

Land Use & Land Cover

Effects on Crops, Disease,Ecosystems, etc

Surface

Characteristics

Climate

Surface Characteristics influencing Climate

Important to include regional and local characteristics


Modeling future land use regional climate and maize yields in east africa

Projected D in Maize Yield

Climate Forcings Only


An illustration of climate and land cover drivers

An Illustration of Climate and Land Cover Drivers

Landscape Inputs

The Climate Model Domain

Global Climate inputs at the boundaries


Modeling future land use regional climate and maize yields in east africa

Relative Impact of Greenhouse Gases

vs. Land Use Change: Tmax


Modeling future land use regional climate and maize yields in east africa

Projected D in Maize Yield:

Landscape Forcings Only


Modeling future land use regional climate and maize yields in east africa

Differences in Sensible Heat Flux


Modeling future land use regional climate and maize yields in east africa

Conceptual framework: A walk around “The Loop”

Global Climate:

From CCSM model

CLIMATE DYNAMICS

RAMS simulations

Land Transformation Model (LTM)

Land cover input to RAMS

CERES-MAIZE(Crop model)

Tmin, Tmax, solar, precip

Land cover (albedo, FC, LAI)


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