Redefining the “M” in MOR -- 21 st Century OR Challenges for Militaries

1. Redefining the “M” in MOR-- 21st Century OR Challenges for Militaries presented to ISMORS September 2009 Dr. David S. Alberts Director, Research OASD/NII – DoD CIO

2. Military Operations Research Q. What makes MOR different from OR? A: It is all about the problem formulation. Specifically, ~ the Objective Function / MoE ~the assumptions ~the “approved” scenarios ~the “validated” models Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 2009

3. The Problem There is a fundamental disconnect between Problem Formulations of Military Operations Research & 21st Century Military Mission Challenges Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 2009

4. The Result The value chain is broken! Mission Effectiveness Shared Awareness Self- Synchronization Information Quality Collaboration Information Sharing Robustly Networked Force Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 2009

5. 21st Century Military Missions 21st Century Military Missions are Complex Endeavors Complexity in the Task and Environment + Complexity of ‘Self’ = Complex Endeavor Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 2009

6. Task and Environment Counter Terrorism Humanitarian Assistance Peace Keeping • The success of 21st Century “Military” Missions requires a multi-dimensional effects space • - political, social, economic, military • The complexity of the mission is a result of the interactions between and among the effects, particularly across dimensions, and the uncertainties associated with a cascading effects chain. Stability Operations Disaster Relief Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 2009

7. Task and Environment Counter Terrorism Humanitarian Assistance Peace Keeping • The success of 21st Century “Military” Missions requires a multi-dimensional effects space • - political, social, economic, military • The complexity of the mission is a result of the interactions between and among the effects, particularly across dimensions, and the uncertainties associated with a cascading effects chain. Military Missions are no longer Military Missions ! Stability Operations Disaster Relief Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 2009

8. Complexity of Self • Self = A large number of heterogeneous, independent entities that differ significantly with respect to: • Culture, values and norms; • Laws, policies, rules, and regulations; • Practices and processes; • Levels of trust; • Language; • Information and communications capabilities; • Approach to organization and management. • The complexity of ‘Self’ comes from the nature of the interactions between and among the participating entities and the dynamics of the situation that affect entity willingness, constraints, perceptions, and capabilities. Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 2009

9. Implications for Command and Control The nature of C2 is an assumption • There will not be a unified chain of command. • Entities will each have their own intent. • The situation will be, in part, unfamiliar to all entities. • There will be multiple planning processes. • Critical information and expertise necessary to understand the situation will be non-organic. • Actions, to be effective, will require developing synergies between and among entity actions. There is a difference between Entity C2 and Collective C2 Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 2009

10. It’s all about Networks • Complex Endeavors are the rule not the exception • Complex Effects Space • More than just effects in a single domain • Interactions in effects space significant • Lack of understanding of cross-domain cause-effects • Inability to predict • Operating in a Network-Centric Environment • Many v. Few • Unfamiliar v. Familiar • Complex “Self” • “Self” is composed of a large number of heterogeneous entities • Different objectives, values, constraints • No single entity in charge • Entities have significantly different perceptions Effects Network Networked Self Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 2009

11. Focus and Convergence Replaces the C2 assumption • Focus and Convergence accomplishes the functions • associated with command and control • without • the existence of a single chain of command • the assumption of control Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 2009

12. F&C Approach Space Distributionof InformationAmongParticipants Patterns of Interaction Among Entities Allocation of Decision Rights to the Collective Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 2009

13. Approach Space Distributionof InformationAmongParticipants Patterns of Interaction Among Entities Traditional Military / Industrial Organizations Allocation of Decision Rights to the Collective Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 2009

14. Approach Space Distributionof InformationAmongParticipants The constraint to operate in a small part of this space Is not longer valid Patterns of Interaction Among Entities Traditional Military / Industrial Organizations Allocation of Decision Rights to the Collective Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 2009

15. Approach Space Distributionof InformationAmongParticipants Edge Organizations Patterns of Interaction Among Entities Traditional Military / Industrial Organizations Allocation of Decision Rights to the Collective Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 2009

16. Archetypical Approaches Archetypical Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 2009

17. The Challenge Endeavor Space Approach to Focus and Convergence What is your requisite level of Maturity? How much Agility do you need to have? Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 2009

18. F&C Agility replaces the objective to maximize mission effectiveness • Agility is an umbrella concept that includes: • Responsiveness; • Robustness; • Resilience; • Flexibility; • Innovativeness; • Adaptability. • F&C Agility is the ability to maintain effective F&C as a function of changing circumstances and stresses. Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 2009

19. F&C Agility • F&C Agility involves more than being able to recognize the nature of the situation and adjust the C2 Approach • F&C Agility also involves being able to maintain an acceptable level of effectiveness in the face of: • Physical, Electronic, and Cyber attacks that destroy or degrade nodes and/or links; • Information attacks that results in a loss of information or the insertion of misinformation; • A loss of trust in information, services, or entities; • An austere environment that limits connectivity and services; • …. Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 2009

20. Getting Started on the Way Ahead • Acquire a New Mindset • Recognize the need to move beyond traditional approaches • Recognize that there is no single approach that fits all situations • Recognize the difference between entity and collective action • Adopt the language of Focus and Convergence • Use Case Studies and related Analyses to • Select targets for F&C Maturity and Agility • Determine, for a given endeavor, your Requisite Maturity and Requisite Agility • Work with others, in a given endeavor, to determine the Requisite Maturity and Agility of the Collective • Use the F&C Maturity Model to: • Characterize and understand your approaches and capabilities • Identify what co-evolution is required to move to the next level of maturity • Create time-phased milestones for your implementation plan Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 2009

21. Military Operations Research Redefining the "M" in MOR -- ISMORS September 2009