Here for the long run. Investor Update – August 2013. long run profile. Key Metrics. 2013 Q2 Production. 52% oil. 48% natural gas. $450 million credit facility. Second Quarter 2013 Highlights. Increased Production and Funds Flow from Operations .
Here for the long run
Investor Update – August 2013
2013 Q2 Production
48% natural gas
$450 million credit facility
Increased Production and Funds Flow from Operations
Average production of 24,431 boe/d, 52% crude oil and liquids
Q2 ‘13 Peace Area production increased 6% from Q1 ‘13 to 9,952 boe/d
Q2 ’13 Redwater production increased 6% from Q1’13 to 5,444 boe/d
Funds flow from Operations of $63.2 million ($0.50 per share)
Resource assessment identified Discovered Petroleum Initially-in-Place of 301.2 million barrels of oil (best case) on a portion of Long Run’s Montney lands in the Peace area
Forecast 2013 Annual Average Production of 25,000 boe per day
25,000 boe per day
average annual boe per day
2013 Target Funds Flow of $230 million
Adding Production & Reserves
Development of light oil play areas through horizontal technology
Ongoing development work targeting oil at Peace in the Montney and at Redwater in the Viking
Multi-year inventory of locations
Target rich environment
Highly experienced M&A team
Current light oil assets highly amenable to EOR
Strong technical team with significant experience in initiating and maintaining EOR
This junior/intermediate yield sector has been in favour with investors over the past two years, generating returns in excess of the broader energy index on a total return basis (including yield)
Growing investor demand for yield product that achieve a blend of capital appreciation and income
Growing yield sector in junior / intermediate energy companies as demand for yield products continues to outstrip supply
Tightening of capital markets with diminished support for equity issuances from growth (non-yield) energy companies
Strong Year -Over-Year Growth
2012 Reserve Highlights
P+P Net asset value of $9.60 per share
P+P reserve life index of approximately 9.1 years
Oil & Liquids
Capital Spending ($275 MM)
Number of wells
Exploration and Development Focused
600,000 net acres
Primary targets are Triassic age resource plays targeting oil and liquids-rich gas
Current development focus area is Girouxville/ Normandville Montney oil
Dominant Position in Multi-Zone Play
Current production of 9,450 BOE/d (60% oil)
Resource Assessment evaluated 92 sections of land in Montney fairway
Have drilled 60+ wells to-date
Multi-year development inventory
Initial development plan average up to 6 wells/section
Have started injection on initial EOR pilot
50 wells planned in 2013
Have reduced spud to rig-release time from 11 days to 9 days over last 30 wells
Normandville / Girouxville
Peace River Area
Potential water injection wells
Identified Montney Oil
Historical Hz well
New Hz well
Resource Assessment Identifies Significant Resource In-Place
(1) Discovered oil initially in place ("DOIIP") is evaluated in an independent resource assessment (the "Resource Assessment") prepared by Sproule Associates Limited ("Sproule") effective December 31, 2012 on a portion of Long Run's lands (the "Evaluated Areas") covering the Montney formation at Normandville and Girouxville which evaluated the discovered petroleum initially in place ("DPIIP"). The DOIIP and DPIIP currently cannot be further subcategorized as it is not possible at this time to define a recovery project for this DOIIP or DPIIP. See "Advisory" section of this Presentation with respect to additional advisories on DOIIP and DPIIP.
(2) Included for illustration purposes only. Primary assumes 10% recovery of best case DOIIP; secondary recovery assumes 8% recovery of best case DOIIP. While included for illustration purposes, it should be noted that while waterflood technologies have been used in what Long Run believes to be analogous pools, the effectiveness of such techniques in the Evaluated Areas covered by the Resource Assessment has not been established. There is no certainty that enhance recovery techniques and additional infill drilling which is planned, will increase recoveries. Enhanced recovery projects have historically been developed sequentially over a number of drilling seasons and are subject to annual budget constraints. Long Run's policy of orderly development on a stage basis, the short and long-term view of Long Run on commodity prices, the results of exploration and development activities of Long Run and others in the area and possible infrastructure capital constraints will determine the pace of development.
For the purpose of the Resource Assessment, 48% of LRE’s Montney acreage was evaluated by third-party engineers
301.2 mmbbls of oil DPIIP(1) (best)
40 mmbbls potential unbooked oil upside (2)
Total Normandville/Girouxville Montney = 123,312 Acres
25 mmbbls illustrativeunbooked oil - secondary(2)
15 mmbbls illustrativeunbooked oil – primary(2)
1.9 mmbbls oil produced
Substantial Throughput Capacity
Normandville Oil Battery
Peace River Area
Donnelly Gas Plant
28 MMcf/d to sales
Girouxville Oil Battery
5,000 bopd12 MMcf/d
Horizontal Type Curve Economics
Recent horizontal Montney oil wells using 25-stage, cemented liner completions (28 wells – Q4 2012, Q1 2013)
Historical Montney oil type curve
Cherhill & Redwater
Significant Development Inventory
Type Curve Economics
12-month capital efficiency of approximately $29,000/boe/d
Average operating netback of approximately $63.48/boe
Recent horizontal Viking oil wells (41 wells – Q4 2012, Q1 2013)
Historical Viking oil type curve
Focus on operational efficiency and ingenuity
Maximize ‘bang for the buck’ with targeted capital spending
Maintain a reasonable balance sheet
Provide growth through development of tight oil and natural gas, strategic acquisitions and enhanced oil recovery
Create a strong, balanced, mid-cap oil and natural gas exploration company
Bill AndrewChair and CEO
Jason FleuryVice President, Capital Markets
Toll-Free Investor Line:1-888-598-1330
Long Run Exploration Ltd.Livingston Place, West TowerSuite 400, 250 – 2nd Street SWCalgary, AB T2P 0C1
Certain information herein may constitute forward-looking statements under applicable securities laws. Forward-looking statements herein include management's go-forward business strategy, management's assessment of future plans and operations, drilling plans and the number of wells to be drilled in 2012, type curves for various plays and the performance of wells to be drilled based on such type curves, 2012/2013 capital budget and expenditures and the allocation thereof, 2012/2013 funds flow, 2012/2013 average production and production growth, anticipated commodity mix for 2012/2013. Plans to build facilities and timing thereof, estimated well and on stream costs of wells, plans to use secondary recovery methods including waterflood and infill drilling to increase recovery from Long Run’s Montney resource and pro forma information about the company. Forward-looking statements necessarily involve risks associated with oil and gas exploration, development, exploitation, production, marketing and transportation, loss of markets, volatility of commodity prices, currency fluctuations, imprecision of reserve estimates, environmental risks, competition from other producers, inability to retain drilling rigs and other services, capital expenditure costs, including drilling, completion and facilities costs, unexpected decline rates in wells, wells not performing as expected, delays resulting from or inability to obtain required regulatory approvals and ability to access sufficient capital from internal and external sources and other risks identified in Long Run's annual information form date March 2012 and available for review under Long Run's SEDAR profile at www.sedar.com. Forward-looking statements or information are based on a number of factors and assumptions as stated herein which have been used to develop such statements and information but which may prove to be incorrect. Although Long Run believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements or information are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements because the Corporation can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. The forward-looking statements contained herein are made as at the date hereof and Long Run does not undertake any obligation to update publicly or to revise any of the included forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, events or otherwise, except as may be required by applicable securities laws.
Included herein is an estimate of Long Run's 2013 funds flow related thereto which is based on the various assumptions as to production levels, commodity prices and exchange rates and that drilling and service costs for 2013 will be similar to the 2012 cost level and other assumptions stated herein. To the extent such estimate constitutes future oriented financial information or a financial outlook, they were approved by management of Long Run on May 22, 2012, and such future oriented financial information or financial outlook is included herein to provide readers with an understanding of Long Run's anticipated funds flow and Long Run's ability to fund its expenditures based on the assumptions described and estimated herein. Readers are cautioned that the information may not be appropriate for other purposes.
Netbacks are calculated by subtracting royalties, transportation costs and operating costs from revenues. Disclosure provided herein in respect of barrels of oil equivalent (boe) may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion ratio of 6 Mcf: 1 Bbl is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Given that the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a conversion on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value.
Type curves presented herein are not necessarily reflective of the performance of future wells.
Forward Looking Statements
Forward Looking Statements
The Resource Assessment mentioned was prepared in accordance with the definitions, standards and procedures contained in the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook (the "COGE Handbook") and National Instrument 51-101 - Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities ("NI 51-101").
The following definitions from NI-51-101 and COGE Handbook are used in this presentation:
“Production” means the cumulative quantity of petroleum that has been recovered at a given date.
"Discovered Oil Initially in Place – DOIIP and DPIIP referred to herein is based on the Resource Assessment effective December 31, 2012 prepared by Sproule. DPIIP means the quantity of petroleum that is estimated, at a given date, to be contained in known accumulations prior to production. The recoverable portion of petroleum-initially-in-place includes cumulative production, reserves and contingent resources; the remainder is categorized as unrecoverable. The 301.2 Mmbbl (best case) DOIIP referred to in this presentation, includes 13.6 Mmbbl of proved plus probable reserves as evaluated in the independent reserve evaluation prepared by Sproule effective December 31, 2012 and 1.9 MMBBL of cumulative production to December 31, 2012. All estimates of DPIIP and DOIIP, including reserves and production, represent gross resources, meaning the company's working interest share in the resources before deducting royalties and without including any royalty interest of the company. Best estimate is considered to be the best estimate of the quantity of resources that will actually be recovered. It is equally likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the best estimate. Those resources that fall within the best estimate have a 50% confidence level that the actual quantities recovered will equal or exceed the estimate. In the case of reserves, the best estimate is proved plus probable reserves. The DPIIP and DOIIP estimates include unrecoverable volumes and are not an estimate of the volume of the substance that will ultimately be recovered. For low, best and high estimates of the DPIIP and DOIPP, further definitions related thereto, positive and negative factors relating to the DPIIP and DOIIP and risk factors relating thereto, please refer to the presentation of the Corporation dated July 2, 2013. There is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the resources.
BOES – Disclosure provided herein in respect of barrels of oil equivalent (boe) may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion ratio of 6 Mcf: 1Bbl is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Given that the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1; utilizing a conversion on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value.
Reserve Disclosure – The estimates for reserves for individual properties may not reflect the same confidence level as estimates of reserves for all properties, due to the effects of aggregation.
Reserves are further classified according to the level of certainty associated with the estimates as follows: Proved Reserves are those reserves that can be estimated with a high degree of certainty to be recoverable. It is likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the estimated proved reserves. Probable Reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than proved reserves. It is equally likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the sum of the estimated proved plus probable reserves. Possible Reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than probable reserves. It is unlikely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the sum of the estimated proved plus probable plus possible reserves. "Unrecoverable" is that portion of DPIIP quantities which is estimated, as of a given date, not to be recoverable by future development projects. A portion of these quantities may become recoverable in the future as commercial circumstances change or technological developments occur; the remaining portion may never be recovered due to the physical/chemical constraints represented by subsurface interaction of fluids and reservoir rocks. All estimates of DPIIP, including reserves and production, represent gross resources, meaning the company's working interest share in the resources before deducting royalties and without including any royalty interests of the Company. DPIIP estimates were determined using probabilistic methods. Probabilistic aggregation of the low and high property estimates shown in the table might produce different total volumes than the arithmetic sums shown in the table. Uncertainty ranges are described in the COGE Handbook as, low, best and high as for reserves and resources as follows: Low estimate is considered to be a conservative estimate of the quantity of resources that will actually be recovered. It is likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the low estimate. Those resources at the low end of the estimate range have the highest degree of certainty - a 90 percent confidence level - that the actual quantities recovered will equal or exceed the estimate. In the case of reserves, the low estimate is proved reserves. Best estimate is considered to be the best estimate of the quantity of resources that will actually be recovered. It is equally likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the best estimate. Those resources that fall within the best estimate have a 50 percent confidence level that the actual quantities recovered will equal or exceed the estimate. In the case of reserves, the best estimate is proved plus probable reserves. High estimate is considered to be an optimistic estimate of the quantity of resources that will actually be recovered. It is unlikely that the actual remaining quantities of resources recovered will meet or exceed the high estimate. Those resources at the high end of the estimate range have a lower degree of certainty - a 10 percent confidence level - that the actual quantities recovered will equal or exceed the estimate. In the case of reserves, the high estimate is proved plus probable plus possible reserves. The Discovered Petroleum-Initially-In-Place estimates include unrecoverable volumes and are not an estimate of the volume of the substances that will ultimately be recovered.