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The Last Lecture

The Last Lecture. Final Exam. December 12 – 3:30-5:30 2 hour exam All material from policy agenda+ formulation forward Responsible for themes for whole course

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The Last Lecture

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  1. The Last Lecture

  2. Final Exam • December 12 – 3:30-5:30 • 2 hour exam • All material from policy agenda+ formulation forward • Responsible for themes for whole course • Responsible for specifics of readings and lectures only from agenda and formulation forward except section of Chap 1 ISOS on policy cycle • Review session: Tu Dec 10 (Room TBA) • 11-12 (whole class) • 12-1 (students from whom English in not first language • Office Hours George • Monday Dec 9, 1-4 • Wednesday Dec 11, 10-12 and 2-4 • By appointment • Office Hours Gabrielle • Friday Dec 6th, 1-4pm • Monday Dec 9th, 9-11 am • Tuesday Dec 10th, 10am-12pm

  3. outline • Feedback on course • Forest policy futures • Short term • BC Liberal Future • What if the NDP had won? • Longer Term • Barriers to more sustainable policy • Final words

  4. Merits of redesign? Themes Policy Content Objective: Draw out broader themes while reducing complexity Concern: Still too complex?

  5. Key elements • Forces at work framework • How government works • Interest Groups • First Nations • International Context • US Influence • Policy Cycle • Policy Formulation • Decision-making and Policy Design • Implementation • New Values: Carbon and Bio-energy • Comparisons • Cases • Great Bear Rainforest • Mountain Pine Beetle Policy Categories tenure Stumpage Rate of harvest Land Use zoning Regulation of Forest Practices Emergent areas – carbon, energy

  6. Course design issues • Should there be tutorials • How would you create space for them?

  7. Course design issues • Website • Facebook page • Twitter feed

  8. Future Directions • Short term • BC Liberal Future • What if the NDP had won? • Longer term

  9. Christy Clark Forest Policy • Mandate letter for appointment of Minister Steve Thomson

  10. MFLNRO mandate letter (1)

  11. MFLNRO mandate letter (2)

  12. Christy Clark Forest Policy • Major Campbell initiatives that seem to be continued • Greenhouse gas reductions? • Pacific Carbon Trust eliminated, function retained • Pressure on forests will increase to offset LNG emissions • Aboriginal reconciliation – signs of move away from treaty focus but that was underway • Reorganization – process seems incomplete • But bigger steps impolitic • Name change?

  13. Let’s suggest a new name! • Current: Ministry of Forests, Lands, and Natural Resource Operations

  14. An almost NDP Future

  15. NDP Platform • New funds • Expanded reforestation • Updated inventory, more R&D on adaptation • Restriction on log exports • Reduce wood waste, create bio-energy opportunities http://www.bcndp.ca/files/BCNDP-Platform-2013-Web.pdf

  16. Longer Term? What values will we be managing for? • Resurgent commodities • Carbon • Bioenergy • Biodiversity • Recreation • Aesthetics Governance • Corporatization • Privatization • Decentralization (Haley and Nelson’s 3 alternatives)

  17. BC Tenure apportioned by AAC Great sources for BC tenure data http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hth/timber-tenures/apportionment/index.htm

  18. Policies for SFM (Luckert et al) • SFM: optimizing 3 dimensions – now and in the future • Economic • Environmental • Social • Diagnosis: failure (too strong?)

  19. Policy obstacles (Luckert et al) • Undue focus on sustained yield of timber • Insufficiently comprehensive rights • Growing trees • Multiple timber species • Energy • Non-market • Forced vertical integration (abandoned in BC) • Inefficient land use zoning • Overly stringent regulation

  20. Principles for Change • Integrative management of jointly produced resources • Flexibility • Innovation • Clarity

  21. Barriers: Why aren’t we doing better? • Intellectual • Value differences • Uncertainties • Political opposition from those benefitting from the status quo • Decision rule that advantage opponents to change • Institutional mismatch • Path dependence

  22. Path dependence • “once a policy or institutional path is established, entrenched mindsets, interests, and institutions make departures from the status quo difficult to envision” (Luckert et al)

  23. Final theme • Potential beneficial policy changes are frequently thwarted by intellectual, political, and/or institutional obstacles. Path dependence increases the costs of change.

  24. Closing thoughts • The meaning is in the detail

  25. Last word: Critical Thinking • Complexity • Facts and values • Steps: • Identify argument • Values underlying • Facts • Be respective of value differences • Be conscious of “motivated reasoning” • Mobilize evidence • Persuasion requires appealing to their values Steps in Policy Analysis • Define problem • Criteria for evaluation • Identify multiple alternatives • Outcomes/consequences of alternatives • Compare/tradeoff • Recommended decision

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