EIONET/EPA networks Workshop on climate change vulnerability, impact and adaptation

1. EIONET/EPA networks Workshop on climate change vulnerability, impact and adaptation EEA, 27-28 november 2007 Regional impacts and vulnerability The Mediterranean (Italy) Franco Desiato, Domenico Gaudioso, Francesca Giordano APAT – Agenzia Nazionale per la Protezione dell’Ambiente e per i Servizi Tecnici

2. Primary impacts indicators (temperature, precipitation, …..) Medium to long term forecasted change (i.e. 2071-2100 versus 1961-1990) of mean temperature, cumulated precipitation,…) From high-resolution global or regional AOGCM models ….

3. Temperature change - Southern Europe: 1900-2000 (observed); 2000-2100 (A1B scenario , 11 models)

4. Cumulated Precipitation change - 21 models ensemble 2080 - 2099 versus 1980 - 1999 Scenario A1B DJF JJA %

5. Uncertainty by prediction models Precipitation anomaly (mm) – Northern Italy - Winter

6. ……..Primary impacts indicators • (temperature, precipitation, ….. • Medium to long term forecasted change • BUT ALSO : • Current trends estimate from observations time series • IS NEEDED FOR: • the knowledge of past/current impacts of climate change • the continuous, in-progress verificationof AOGCM forecasts • the downscaling: impacts and vulnerability estimates are needed at the local scale

7. Trend estimates from observations time series Require time series homogenization: • WMO WG on Homogenization and Quality Control in Climatological Databases; • COST ActionES0601: Advances in homogenisation methods of climate series: an integrated approach

8. Mean temperature anomaly over Italy Italy: 1961-2006 T = +0.94 °C 1980 – 2006 T = +1.54 °C Global:1961-2006 T  +0.7 °C

9. Cumulated precipitation anomaly 1961-2006 Northern Italy Central Italy Southern Italy

10. Primary impacts EXTREMES indicators • Example: • Set of indicators form the WMO CLIVAR Working Group on Climate Change Detection: • Frost days • Summer days • Tropical nights • Cold days, cold nights • Warm days, warm nights • Maximum absolute temperature • Minimum absolute temperature

11. Tropical nights - Italy 1961-2006  = +12,5 days/year 1978 – 2006  = +21 days/year

12. From the GREEN PAPER 4 out of the 6 most vulnerable areas in Europe concern Southern Europe and/or the Mediterranean: • Southern Europe and the entire Mediterranean Basin due to the combined effect of high temperature increases and reduced precipitation in areas already coping with water scarcity • Mountain areas, in particular the Alps, where temperatures increase rapidly leading to widespread melting of snow and ice changing river flows • Coastal zones due to sea level rise combined with increased risks for storms. • Densely populated floodplains due to increased risks for storms, intense rainfall and flash floods leading to widespread damages to built-up areas and infrastructure.

13. Sensitivity to desertification Areas at high risk: Pianura Padano-Veneta, Versilia, Fondi and Pontina plains. 1500km out of 8000km at risk of erosion and flooding 1% Very low 63% Low 33% Medium Hydro-geological risk 3% High Flooding risk DISMED Project Desertification degradation of land in arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas. It is caused primarily by human activities and climatic variations (UNCCD). Areas at high risk: Sardinia, Sicily, Puglia, Basilicata • Areas at high risk: 9,8% of the Italian territory • 4,1% floods • 5,2% landslides • 0,5% avalanches Areas of potential vulnerability to climate change in Italy

14. Systems/Sectors of critical impacts for Italy • MARINE AND COASTAL SYSTEMS • WATER RESOURCES • BIODIVERSITY AND FORESTS • AGRICULTURE • TOURISM

15. MARINE AND COASTAL SYSTEMS Some example of indicators:

16. WATER RESOURCES Some example of indicators:

17. BIODIVERSITY AND FORESTS Some example of indicators:

18. ITALY – Outputs from the National Conference on Climate Change From the Italian National Conference on Climate Change and from preparatory workshops, several indications emerge for the priority actions to be undertaken by the Ministry of Environment, Land and Sea. By 2008 the Italian Ministry of the Environment, Land and Sea commits to drafting a national sustainable adaptation and land protection strategy. Two important outcomes of the conference: - The CLIMATE MANIFESTO - The first 13 ACTIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE ADAPTATION

19. ITALY – Outputs from the National Conference on Climate Change The CLIMATE MANIFESTO points out the following needs: - development of climate change mitigation policies - coordination of mitigation measures with adaptation measures - definition of a National Adaptation Plan to Climate Change - promotion of measures to assist developing countries - monitoring of progress at regular intervals throughthe National Conference on CC The first 13 ACTIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE ADAPTATION concern: - research and knowledge work - extreme events - energy savings - marine resources - new models of consumption - tourism - water resources - health - agriculture - meteo-climatic early warning - coasts - public awareness - environmental incentives for labour and enterprises

20. SPAIN – National Plan for the adaptation to climate change 2004:previous step, ECCE project “A preliminary general assessment of the impacts in Spain due to the effects of climate change” 02-2006:presentation at National Climate Council, Coordination Commission for Policies on Climate Change, Sectoral Conference of Environment 03-2006:public consultation 07-2006:formal approval at CCPCC Every 4 years:monitoring and assessment Report of the National Plan of adaptation to climate change, that will guide further developments

21. FRANCE – National Strategy for the adaptation to climate change • The French National Strategyfor the adaptation to climate change has been drafted by the National Observatory for the Effects of Global Warming. • It represents an intermediate step between the scientific outputs and the drafting of an action plan. • November 2006: approval by the Inter-Ministry Committee for Sustainable Development • Four objectives: • to assure safety and public health • to limit the increase of inequalities in front of the risk • to limit the costs through preventive measures • to preserve the natural heritage

22. PORTUGAL – The SIAM Project (Scenarios, Impacts and Adaptation Measures) AIM: to carry out the first integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change in the country. The work focuses on a core set of socio-economic and biophysical impacts, and is based upon scenarios of future climate produced by climate models. Impacts on specific sectors: fisheries, forestry and biodiversity, human health, water resources, agriculture, coastal zones, and energy SIAM II: application of the general methodology of project SIAM at a smaller geographic scale in order to provide responses to decision makers in the public sector.