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Application of Regional Models: High-Resolution Climate Change Scenarios for India Using PRECIS

Application of Regional Models: High-Resolution Climate Change Scenarios for India Using PRECIS. Rupa Kumar Kolli (kolli@tropmet.res.in) Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (http://www.tropmet.res.in) Pune 411008, India. Summer Monsoon Rainfall (mm/day) Simulation by AOGCMs. Observed.

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Application of Regional Models: High-Resolution Climate Change Scenarios for India Using PRECIS

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  1. Application of Regional Models: High-Resolution Climate Change Scenarios for India Using PRECIS Rupa Kumar Kolli (kolli@tropmet.res.in) Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (http://www.tropmet.res.in) Pune 411008, India COP-10 In-Session Workshop, Buenos Aires, December 8, 2004

  2. Summer Monsoon Rainfall (mm/day) Simulation by AOGCMs Observed Global models provide inadequate and even inaccurate information on regional scales, more strikingly in the case of the Indian summer monsoon variability patterns. COP-10 In-Session Workshop, Buenos Aires, December 8, 2004

  3. PRECIS Application • Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies • PRECIS runs on a Linux PC (horizontal resolutions currently available: 50 x 50 and 25 x 25 km). • Needs data for the selected domain on lateral boundary conditions (LBC) from the driving GCM (e.g., HadCM3/HadAM3) and the associated ancillary files (e.g., sea surface temperatures, vegetation, topography, etc.). • Hadley Centre, UK has been providing PRECIS as well as the driving data to several regional groups. • Baseline (1961-90), A2 and B2 scenarios (2071-2100). Reanalysis-driven runs provide comprehensive regional data sets representing current conditions, which can assist model evaluation as well as assessment of vulnerability to current climate variability. • Ensembles to estimate model-related uncertainties. COP-10 In-Session Workshop, Buenos Aires, December 8, 2004

  4. GCMs to Regional Adaptive Responses : Modelling PathCs = f(Cl , Øs )Cs - small scale climateCl - large scale climateØs - physiographic details at small scale COP-10 In-Session Workshop, Buenos Aires, December 8, 2004

  5. Global Model Regional Model (PRECIS) Model Orography COP-10 In-Session Workshop, Buenos Aires, December 8, 2004

  6. PRECIS captures important regional information on summer monsoon rainfall missing in its parent GCM simulations. COP-10 In-Session Workshop, Buenos Aires, December 8, 2004

  7. A2 Scenarios of seasonal precipitation (% change), 2071-2100 based on PRECIS COP-10 In-Session Workshop, Buenos Aires, December 8, 2004

  8. A2 Scenarios of seasonal surface temperature (°C), 2071-2100, based on PRECIS COP-10 In-Session Workshop, Buenos Aires, December 8, 2004

  9. Applications in Impact Assessment Models • PRECIS generates comprehensive regional climate information, physically consistent among all the variables. • Can be directly plugged into impact assessment models • Used with water balance models and river water routing algorithms, PRECIS data enables more realistic representation of the processes affecting water resources, even in smaller river basins. • PRECIS generates all the required information to drive crop-weather models, to estimate impacts on agriculture. • Regional vegetation models like BIOME can be run with PRECIS data to estimate changes in forest cover. COP-10 In-Session Workshop, Buenos Aires, December 8, 2004

  10. Data can be used to drive other models A cyclone in the Bay of Bengal simulated by an RCM and the resulting high water levels in the Bay simulated by a coastal shelf model. COP-10 In-Session Workshop, Buenos Aires, December 8, 2004

  11. Summary • Application of the Hadley Centre’s regional climate model, PRECIS over the Indian region • Simulations of baseline for the current period (1961-90), A2 (high emissions) and B2 (low emissions) scenarios for periods up to 2100. • Scenarios used in India’s First National Communication to the UNFCCC. • Also used in climate change studies by the neighbouring South Asian nations. • PRECIS demonstrated to be a powerful tool to build consistent regional climate change scenarios and determine the sensitivity of the regional climate processes to natural and anthropogenic forcings. • Sensitivity studies to continue, and more scenarios to be built. • Multi-model ensembles (more RCMs, more driving GCMs) essential to obtain a better handle on the reliability of regional projections. COP-10 In-Session Workshop, Buenos Aires, December 8, 2004

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