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Climate Change and Kansas

Climate Change and Kansas. Johannes Feddema. Department of Geography The University of Kansas. What is Climate Science. What is Climate Science Understanding of the movement of energy into, through, and out of the Earth System Based on physics through the processes of:

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Climate Change and Kansas

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  1. Climate Change and Kansas Johannes Feddema Department of Geography The University of Kansas

  2. What is Climate Science What is Climate Science Understanding of the movement of energy into, through, and out of the Earth System Based on physics through the processes of: Electromagnetic radiation Convective heating of the Atmosphere (sensible heat) Convective transport of water vapor

  3. Global Average Energy Balance Top of Atmosphere Energy Balance: 342 – 107 = 235 107 342 235 Incoming Solar Radiation Shortwave z Outgoing Long-wave Radiation Reflected Shortwave radiation Atmosphere Energy Balance: 67 + 350 + 24 + 78 = 324 + 165 + 30 Reflected Shortwave radiation by Clouds Aerosols and Gases Long-wave Radiation from Clouds Long-wave Radiation Atmospheric Window Long-wave Radiation from Atmosphere 30 165 Absorbed Shortwave radiation by Atmosphere 40 77 Latent Heat 67 350 Longwave Radiation Absorbed by Atmosphere Sensible Heat Long-wave Radiation Emitted by Atmosphere Reflected Shortwave radiation by Surface 78 24 30 Longwave Radiation Emmited by Surface 324 168 Evapo- transpiration 390 Thermal heating Absorbed Shortwave radiation by Surface Conduction 0 Surface Energy Balance: 168 = 390 – 324 + 24 + 78

  4. Natural Vegetation? • De/Re-forestation • Plantation • Succession • Degradation Background: Human Climate Interactions What exactly do we want to simulate? Fire Natural Human caused Agricultural Atmospheric Composition • Agriculture • Intensity • Crop types • Irrigation • Fertilizer use Soil Degradation Urban Grazing Intensity Pasture

  5. So what are we worried about? Future? Rate – Depends on: response time? feed backs? Present 2005 Rate = +0.7 ºC 100yrs 0.7 ºC 100 years 1958 1900 1900 Industrial revolution begins Humans develop as species Rate ≈ +0.036 ºC 100yrs { 5-8 ºC 18,000 years Ice Age Domestication of plants and animals Last Glacial Maximum

  6. Climate Forcing (Anthropogenic) Source: World Resources 2000-2001 Time Magazine – 9 April 2001

  7. Global Average Energy Balance Top of Atmosphere Energy Balance: 342 – 107 = 235 107 342 235 234 235 Incoming Solar Radiation Shortwave z Outgoing Long-wave Radiation Atmosphere Energy Balance: 67 + 350 + 24 + 78 = 324 + 165 + 30 Reflected Shortwave radiation 352 79 326 166 Reflected Shortwave radiation by Clouds Aerosols and Gases Long-wave Radiation from Clouds Long-wave Radiation Atmospheric Window Long-wave Radiation from Atmosphere 30 165 Absorbed Shortwave radiation by Atmosphere 40 39 166 77 Latent Heat 67 1 350 Longwave Radiation Absorbed by Atmosphere 351 2 352 Sensible Heat Long-wave Radiation Emitted by Atmosphere Reflected Shortwave radiation by Surface 78 24 79 30 Longwave Radiation Emmited by Surface 324 326 168 Evapo- transpiration 390 Thermal heating 391 Absorbed Shortwave radiation by Surface 79 326 391 Conduction 0 Surface Energy Balance: 168 – 324 = 390 + 24 + 78 + 0

  8. Recent Climate Variable Trends

  9. How far back should we look? Sources Globalwarmingart.com www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Phanerozoic_Carbon_Dioxide_png Bergman etaal (2004). American Journal of Science301: 182-204.  Berner and Kothavala (2001). American Journal of Science304: 397–437.  Gradstein, FM and JG Ogg (1996). Episodes19: 3-5.  Gradsteinet al. (2005). A geologic time scale 2004. Camb. Univ. Press Rothman (2001) Proc. of the Nat. Academy of Sciences99 (7): 4167-4171.  Royer, et al. (2004) GSA Today www.scotese.com But it was a different world Extinction of Dinosaurs Permian Crash Terrestrial plants

  10. Abrupt Transitions in the Summer Sea Ice Impacts of Climate Change – Sea Ice Extent Observed Alaska Russia Russia Alaska Greenland Canada Scandinavia Greenland Simulated “Abrupt” transition • Gradual forcing results in abrupt Sept ice decrease • Extent decreases from 70 to 20% coverage in 10 years. Observations Simulated 5-year running mean Sources NSIDC NCAR

  11. IPCC Report on Anthropogenic Climate Impacts

  12. Climate Change Science What do we need to know? Is the climate changing Observations Reference conditions Climate change attribution What is causing it to change Climate projections What does theory tell us about the future

  13. Global Climate over the last century

  14. 1895 to 2007 Annual 1895 - 2007 Average = 54.27 degFAnnual 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.09 degF / Decade 1930 to 2007 Annual 1930 - 2007 Average = 54.55 degFAnnual 1930 - 2007 Trend = -0.04 degF / Decade 1977 to 2007 Kansas Temperature Changes How to lie with Statistics (or maps) Annual 1977 - 2007 Average = 54.56 degFAnnual 1977 - 2007 Trend = 0.53 degF / Decade Source National Climate Data Center http://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/hr-display3.pl

  15. Global Climate over the last century

  16. Annual 1895 - 2007 Average = 27.50 InchesAnnual 1895 - 2007 Trend = 0.22 Inches / Decade Annual 1930 - 2007 Average = 27.62 InchesAnnual 1930 - 2007 Trend = 0.56 Inches / Decade Annual 1977 - 2007 Average = 28.96 InchesAnnual 1977 - 2007 Trend = 0.32 Inches / Decade Kansas Precipitation Changes 1895-2007 1930-2007 1977-2007 Source National Climate Data Center http://climvis.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/cag3/hr-display3.pl

  17. D = Annual Deficit (mm) S = Annual Surplus (mm) D = 47 S = 304 Present Day Normal + 3 C all months + 5% Precipitation + 1.5 C all months + 5% Precipitation D = 69 S = 302 D =107 S = 255 + 2 C all months + 0% Precipitation + 4 C all months + 0% Precipitation D = 95 S = 246 D =151 S = 188 Kansas Climate projections 2050 2100 Eastern Kansas (37N, 95W) 0.86 Inches drier 2.36 Inches drier Precipitation -0.08 inches surplus water -1.93 inches surplus water Potential Evapotranspiration • IPCC A1B Scenario • Middle of the road Scenario • 3.5ºC (6.3ºF) annual T increase • 3% annual P increase • (summer -3% P) 1.89 Inches drier 4.09 Inches drier -2.28 inches surplus water -4.49 inches surplus water Source: IPCC 2007 J. Feddema University of Kansas

  18. D = Annual Deficit (mm) S = Annual Surplus (mm) + 3 C all months + 5% Precipitation + 1.5 C all months + 5% Precipitation D = 383 S = 0 D =463 S = 0 D = 330 S = 0 Potential Evapotranspiration Precipitation + 2 C all months + 0% Precipitation + 4 C all months + 0% Precipitation D = 433 S = 0 D =540 S = 0 Kansas Climate projections 2050 2100 Western Kansas (37N, 95W) 2.09 Inches drier 5.24 Inches drier • IPCC A1B Scenario • Middle of the road Scenario • 3.5ºC (6.3ºF) annual T increase • 3% annual P increase • (summer -3% P) 4.06 Inches drier 8.27 Inches drier Source: IPCC 2007 J. Feddema University of Kansas

  19. IPCC Simulations for Kansas NW NC NE SW SC SE

  20. Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)

  21. Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)

  22. Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)

  23. Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)

  24. Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)

  25. Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)

  26. Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)

  27. Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)

  28. Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)

  29. Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)

  30. Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)

  31. Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)

  32. THE END

  33. Kansas Climate Projections (3 “best” Models)

  34. Global Climate Observing System Thermoscope Thermometer Greeks (density and energy) 11th Century Avicenna 15?? -1603 Galileo (thermoscope) 1613 – Segredo/Santorio (thermometer?) 1714 Fahrenheit (Mercury) 1742 Celsius (Centigrade Scale) Sources: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermometer http://inventors.about.com/b/2004/11/16/the-history-behind-the-thermometer.htm www.nature.com http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Rapids/7592/Stevenson.jpg

  35. Climate Change Science What is causing climate to change? Natural processes Solar processes and Paleo records Atmospheric composition change Changes in the carbon cycle Human induced processes Atmospheric composition Land cover effects

  36. Natural Forcing over the last decades

  37. How to compile long term information

  38. Human Impacts Attributing climate change to a cause? Solar forcing Volcanic forcing Greenhouse gas forcing Sulfate aerosol forcing (global dimming) Others?

  39. Background: The Climate System

  40. Climate Models

  41. Climate Models R15 T42 T170 T85

  42. Climate Models (300 km) (150 km) (75) km (37 km)

  43. Timeline of Climate Model Development

  44. Climate Simulation: How good are the models?

  45. IPCC Report on Anthropogenic Climate Impacts

  46. Climate projections: What is to come? Raupach et al., PNAS, 2007

  47. Climate Simulation: Ocean Response T. Barnett and D. Pierce of SIO

  48. Climate projections: Global Temperature Anomalies relative to 1980-99 IPCC Ch. 10, Fig. 10.4, TS-32 Climate change experiments from 16 groups (11 countries) and 23 models collected at PCMDI (over 31 terabytes of model data) Committed warming averages 0.1°C per decade for the first two decades of the 21st century; across all scenarios, the average warming is 0.2°C per decade for that time period (recent observed trend 0.2°Cper decade)

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