1 / 40

Candidate: Animesh Kumar Gain , 25 th Cycle

Climate change impact and vulnerability assessment of water resources systems: the case of Lower Brahmaputra River Basin (LBRB). Candidate: Animesh Kumar Gain , 25 th Cycle. Tutor: Carlo Giupponi , Ca’ Foscari University of Venice

kitra
Download Presentation

Candidate: Animesh Kumar Gain , 25 th Cycle

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Climate change impact and vulnerability assessment of water resources systems: the case of Lower Brahmaputra River Basin (LBRB) Candidate: Animesh Kumar Gain, 25th Cycle Tutor: Carlo Giupponi, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice Co-tutor: FabriceRenaud, United Nations University (UNU-EHS) Email: animesh.gain@gmail.com

  2. Content • Background • Contribution • Results • Conclusion

  3. Content • Background • Contribution • Results • Conclusion

  4. Background • Water is a scare resources because of its temporal and spatial variation • Water is the primary medium through which CC influences the Earth’s ecosystems and people’s livelihood and wellbeing (UN Water, 2009) • population pressure, economic growth, and other development pressure on Water demand. • these supply and demand-side changes are increasing vulnerability of water resources systems (WRS)

  5. Background • WRSs are complex in nature and can be described, analysed, and possibly managed on the basis of their main Socio-ecosystems (SESs) • there is no universally accepted approach for assessing vulnerability... • there are instead several distinct schools of thought: CCA, DRR, GEC etc. • IPCC-SREX (IPCC 2012) has significantly contributed to integrate DRR & CCA approaches, and to find common terminologies… • but still operational solutions are not available

  6. Background • This study attempts to assess impact and VA of WRS at Lower Brahmaputra River Basin (LBRB) • CC, Himalayan Snow melting & riverflow, sea level rise, monsoon climate • Water governance status is very poor • Trans-boundary river China, India, BD, Bhutan

  7. Content • Background • Contribution • Results • Conclusion

  8. Contribution • Investigating CC impact & VA, it is required IA of WRS (LBRB) that includes following sub-topics: 1. CC Impact on streamflow of lower Brahmaputra 2. Threshold of streamflow (for LBRB) & investigation of CC effect 3. Assessment of water governance trend of Bangladesh 4. Development of generalized framework on VA of WRS & feasibility study in LBRB 5. A dynamic assessment of water scarcity risk and climate change adaptation in LBRB

  9. Outline of the Thesis • General Introduction 1. CC impact on streamflow of LB: trends in high & lowflow based on discharge weighted ensemble modelling 2. Threshold of hydrologic flow regime of a river and investigation of CC impact – the case of LBRB 3. An assessment of water governance trend: the case of BD 4. CCA & VA of WRS in developing countries: a generalized framework and feasibility study in BD 5. A dynamic assessment of water scarcity risk and climate change adaptation in LBRB • Conclusion

  10. Content • Background • Contribution • Results • Conclusion

  11. Results: 1CC Impact on streamflow of lower Brahmaputra Gain, A. K., Immerzeel, W. W., Sperna Weiland, F. C., & Bierkens, M. F. P. (2011). Impact of climate change on the stream flow of the lower Brahmaputra: trends in high and low flows based on discharge-weighted ensemble modelling. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 15(5), 1537-1545. doi:10.5194/hess-15-1537-2011

  12. Results: 1CC Impact on streamflow of lower Brahmaputra • multi-model ensemble analysis: 12 GCMs outputs that are forced by a global hydrological model. Fig. Multi-model ensemble analysis Table. Weighting factor of each GCM

  13. Results: 1CC Impact on streamflow of lower Brahmaputra Fig. Future streamflow for different seasons

  14. Results: 1CC Impact on streamflow of lower Brahmaputra • More flooding is expected in the future years. Fig. Future yearly maximum flow Table. Future 7-day low-flow

  15. Results: 2 Threshold of streamflow & investigation of CC effect Gain, A. K., Apel, H., Renaud, F., & Giupponi, C. (2012). Threshold of hydrologic flow regime of a river and investigation of climate change impact – the case of lower Brahmaputra river Basin. Under Review, Climatic Change. Ecological flow threshold was determined based on ‘RVA’ approach by Richter et al. (1997)

  16. Results: 2Threshold of streamflow & investigation of CC effect Different extent flood

  17. Results: 3Assessment of water governance trend of Bangladesh Gain, A. K., & Schwab, M. (2012). An assessment of water governance trends: the case of Bangladesh. Water Policy (IWA). doi:10.2166/wp.2012.143

  18. Results: 3Assessment of water governance trend of Bangladesh • 7 indicators of legal, political & administrative aspects by Saleth & Dinar (2004). • Water governance trend based on policy review and stakeholder consultations. • Changes are analysed, shifts indicated by policy documents and the quality of governance perceived by water user groups

  19. Results: 3Assessment of water governance trend of Bangladesh • According to the policy documents, all notions of governance have significantly improved and will further improve. • But, according to water user groups, the actual implementation of these policies seems to be far behind what policy documents indicate. • The gap has even been increasing over time.

  20. Results: 4Generalized framework on VA of WRS & feasibility at LBRB Gain, A. K., Giupponi, C., & Renaud, F. (2012). Climate Change Adaptation and Vulnerability Assessment of Water Resources Systems in developing countries: A generalized framework and a feasibility study in Bangladesh. Water, 4 (2), 345-366. doi:10.3390/w4020345

  21. Results: 4Generalized framework on VA of WRS & feasibility at LBRB • For developing the framework, the evolution of the concept of VA related to WRS have been reviewed. • From the current practices, the research gaps are identified. • forward looking aspects of vulnerability, • seasonal level assessment reflecting both water abundance and scarcity regimes, • a move towards dynamic assessments based upon the concept of SES, with the involvement of stakeholders.

  22. Results: 4Generalized framework on VA of WRS & feasibility at LBRB • With an aim to overcome these gaps, a generalized assessment framework is developed and a feasibility study is presented in the context of the Lower Brahmaputra River Basin (LBRB).

  23. Results: 5A dynamic assessment of water scarcity risk and climate change adaptation in LBRB • distinct schools of thought of VA: CCA, DRR Gain, A. K., Giupponi, C. (2013). A dynamic assessment of water scarcity risk and climate change adaptation in Lower Brahmaputra River Basin. In progress. • Recently, IPCC-SREX (IPCC 2012) has significantly contributed to integrate DRR & CCA approaches, and to find common terminologies… • but still operational solutions are not available • This part of study attempts to operationalize previously developed theoretical framework for VA of WRS.

  24. Results: 5A dynamic assessment of water scarcity risk and climate change adaptation in LBRB RECALL Comprehensive Framework Source: Gain, et al (2012). Water, 4 (2), 345-366.

  25. Results: 5A dynamic assessment of water scarcity risk and climate change adaptation in LBRB Risk Assessment Model Source: Giupponi et al (2012).

  26. Results: 5A dynamic assessment of water scarcity risk and climate change adaptation in LBRB Selected Indicators in AHP

  27. Results: 5A dynamic assessment of water scarcity risk and climate change adaptation in LBRB Selected Indicators

  28. Results: 5A dynamic assessment of water scarcity risk and climate change adaptation in LBRB Normalization of indicators value function approach Beinat, 1997

  29. Results: 5A dynamic assessment of water scarcity risk and climate change adaptation in LBRB Normalization of indicators value function approach Beinat, 1997

  30. Results: 5A dynamic assessment of water scarcity risk and climate change adaptation in LBRB Aggregation of indicators: participatory modeling • Aggregation: non-additive aggregation using Choquet integral; Giupponi et el 2012 Möbius coefficients (m): m(1) =μ (1) m(2) =μ (2) m(3) =μ (3) m(1,2) = μ (1,2) – [μ (1) + μ (2)] m(1,3) = μ (1,3) – [μ (1) + μ (3)] m(2,3) = μ (2,3) – [μ (2) + μ (3)] m(1,2,3) = μ (1,2,3) – [μ (1,2) + μ (1,3)+ μ (2,3)] + [μ (1) + μ (2)+ μ (3)] Cm(x1, x2, x3) = m(1) •x1 + m(2) •x2 + m(3) •x3 + m(1,2) •min(x1, x2) + m(1,3) •min(x1, x3) + m(2,3) •min(x2, x3) + + m(1,2,3) •min(x1, x2, x3)

  31. Results: 5A dynamic assessment of water scarcity risk and climate change adaptation in LBRB Aggregation of indicators: participatory modeling • Questionnaire Interview: qualitative • relative importance of the indicators • synergies/ redundancies/ additive. • complementarity/ substitutability between all the indicators when considered together. • The specific numerical measures are then assigned in a numerical computation program (Frisari et al., 2012), Shapley Value for 1 є [x-a; x+a] Shapley Value for 2 є [y-a; y+a] Shapley Value for 3 є [z-a; z+a] • Second Question: conditions on Couples • Strong Synergy: 1.2* [m(1)+m(2)] < m(1,2) • Synergy: 1* [m(1)+m(2)] < m(1,2) <1.5*[m(1)+m(2)] • Additivity: 0.8* [m(1)+m(2)] < m(1,2) < 1.2*[m(1)+m(2)] • Redundancy: 0.5* [m(1)+m(2)] < m(1,2) < 1*[m(1)+m(2)] • Strong Redundancy: m(1,2) < 0.5*[m(1)+m(2)] • The following thresholds have been chosen: • Perfect Compatibility: OI є [0;0.2] • Strong Compatibility: OI є [0.2;0.4] • Neither Comp/Substitutability: OI є [0.4;0.6] • Strong Substitutability: OI є [0.6;0.8] • Perfect Substitutability: OI є [0.8;1]

  32. Results: 5A dynamic assessment of water scarcity risk and climate change adaptation in LBRB Aggregation of indicators: participatory modeling

  33. Results: 5A dynamic assessment of water scarcity risk and climate change adaptation in LBRB Aggregation of indicators: system dynamic model

  34. Results: 5A dynamic assessment of water scarcity risk and climate change adaptation in LBRB Simulation results

  35. Results: 5A dynamic assessment of water scarcity risk and climate change adaptation in LBRB Simulation results Hazard:dry season water scarcity is increasing. Exposure: The people and rice cultivated area which are highly exposed to water scarcity show increasing trend.

  36. Results: 5A dynamic assessment of water scarcity risk and climate change adaptation in LBRB Simulation results • Although social vulnerability is shows a decreasing trend,… • …simulated risk increases and fluctuates as a function of hazard levels. • The analysis suggests that during the dry season risks related to water scarcity may increase in the near future.

  37. Content • Background • Contribution • Results • Conclusion

  38. Conclusion • Discharge time series (for SRES A1B and A2 scenario) was constructed based on ensemble modelling. • Due to CC, hydrologic parameters (i.e., 22 RVA & flood types) exceeds the threshold condition • All notions of governance improved in policy documents but implementation of policies seems to be far behind what policy documents indicate. • From the current practices of VA, the research gaps are identified and to overcome these gaps, a generalized assessment framework is developed. • Application of the framework integrating DRR and CCA considering operationlization of the framework

  39. Conclusion • VA/risk assessment results can be used to select adaptation option • After selecting options, water resources decision making will be implemented in the participatory way

  40. Thank you very much for your attention

More Related