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Climate Model Scenarios for Impacts on Forestry

Climate Model Scenarios for Impacts on Forestry. 26 April 2005 Columbia Mountains Institute Workshop: Implications of Climate Change In BC’s Southern Interior Forests Trevor Murdock, M.Sc. tmurdock@uvic.ca Canadian Institute for Climate Studies www.cics.uvic.ca. Acknowledgements.

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Climate Model Scenarios for Impacts on Forestry

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  1. Climate Model Scenarios for Impacts on Forestry 26 April 2005 Columbia Mountains Institute Workshop: Implications of Climate Change In BC’s Southern Interior Forests Trevor Murdock, M.Sc. tmurdock@uvic.ca Canadian Institute for Climate Studies www.cics.uvic.ca

  2. Acknowledgements Jenny Fraser Johanna Wolf Jackie Morris Rick Lee Andreas Hamann Daniel Caya

  3. Outline • Canadian Institute for Climate Studies • Climate Variability and Climate Change • Global Climate Model Scenarios • Regional Scenarios • Summary

  4. Canadian Institute for Climate Studies www.cics.uvic.ca • 1993 Province of BC and Environment Canada launch CICS at the University of Victoria in order to: “further the understanding of the climate system, its variability and potential for change and to further the application of that understanding to decision making in both the public and private sectors.” • Climate Research Network • Seasonal Climate Predictions • Climate Applications • Climate Scenarios • Science-based policy • 2005 Regional focus in partnership with Province of BC – seeking input and involvement from BC stakeholders

  5. Normals Climate Change Long Term Trends or major shifts in climate: (centuries) Climate Variability Normals Short term : (years to decadal) rises and falls about the trend line (ENSO) Climate Oscillations Multi-decadal oscillations in regional climate: (e.g. PDO, NAO) Climate Variability & Climate Change

  6. 1. Climate variability is ongoing 2. “Normals” (i.e. 30 yr means) change. 3. As a minimum, there is an onus on us to plan for climate variability.4. Need to be cognizant that short-term negative trends in climate warming occur So-called “Normals” Prince Albert Sask. Data from MSC Env. Canada 15% Sooke Reservoir: data courtesy S. Gudivicius CRD

  7. Climate Change • Our plans, infrastructure and expectations are based on a very short period of climate record. • Identify Vulnerabilities – extreme winter cold for pine beetle; spring and summer drought, summer temperature for fires; etc. • Study potential Impacts of climate change • use projections of future climate: a range of Scenarios from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to deal with uncertainty • downscaling and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) • Adaptation strategies – managing for current and potential future climate impacts (climate change and variability)

  8. What are Global Climate Models? • GCMs compute global weather patterns several times per day projected over the next century • GCMs are the • “…only credible tools currently available for simulating the physical processes that determine global climate...”[IPCC]

  9. Sources of Uncertainty [Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK Met. Office]

  10. Scenarios http://www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios/ • Predefined regions or create your own • Dynamic map creation • User customization of many features • Meta-information about map and region (min, max, median, area-weighted mean, stddev) • Scatterplots and other tools • Background information • Regional Climate Model data and high resolution baseline data will be added

  11. Scenarios http://www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios/data/select.cgi

  12. Revelstoke Temperature Scenario Winter Temperature1961-1990-3.8 ºC2050s-2.5 to 0.7 ºC1.3 to 4.5 ºC

  13. Revelstoke Temperature Scenario Spring Temperature1961-19907.1 ºC2050s8.1 to 10.9 ºC1.0 to 3.8 ºC

  14. Revelstoke Precipitation Scenario Winter Precipitation1961-1990253 mm2050s260 to 302mm3 to 19%

  15. Revelstoke Precipitation Scenario SpringPrecipitation1961-1990116 mm2050s115 to 136mm0 to 17%

  16. Applying Scenarios: Downscaling • GCM scenarios coarse resolution (100s of kms / monthly) • Dynamic methods • retain internal physical consistency • high resolution AGCMs, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) • Statistical methods • less costly/less complicated • Weather generators – LARS-WG, Multiple linear regression - SDSM • Numerical methods • interpolate (introduces false geographical precision) • ClimateBC • apply change fields from larger spatial scale to working scale

  17. Regional Climate Models • Account for sub-grid scale forcings such as topography and land cover in a physically-based way • Note: more physics can mean more uncertainty

  18. Source: Presentation by Daniel Caya, Ouranos

  19. Source: Presentation by Daniel Caya, Ouranos

  20. Baseline models and predictive models Hamann & Wang 2004 Agr. & For. Meteor.126: 211-221 http://genetics.forestry.ubc.ca/cfgc/climate-models.html

  21. Projections from ClimateBC Software

  22. Summary • Information on climate variability, trends and change can be developed and used to benefit forestry • Climate impacts studies require assessment of vulnerability, and should lead to adaptation strategies • GCM based scenarios used to represent range of plausible future climates for impacts studies • RCMs and downscaling (ClimateBC) may be used to overcome differences in scale • Scenarios for BC – see www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios for more tools, scenarios, data, maps and scatter plots

  23. Thanks! www.cics.uvic.ca

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