1 / 27

The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project

The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project. A collaborative project sponsored by the Climate Change Action Fund Elaine Barrow - Principal Investigator (Science) AIR Group, Environment Canada Canadian Institute for Climate Studies Presented by: Monirul Mirza. Project Aims.

mahina
Download Presentation

The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project A collaborative project sponsored by the Climate Change Action Fund Elaine Barrow - Principal Investigator (Science) AIR Group, Environment Canada Canadian Institute for Climate Studies Presented by: Monirul Mirza

  2. Project Aims To encourage the use of a consistent set of climate change scenarios by the VIA research community in Canada • By: • providing basic national climate change scenarios • developing a nationally-consistent framework within which sector- and region-specific climate change scenarios can be developed • developing and maintaining a capacity to support climate impacts and adaptation research and assessments http://www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios • involving the university research community and scenario users in the further development of climate change scenarios

  3. Project conforms to IPCC-TGCIA recommendations: Guidelines on the Use of Scenario Data for Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment (Download from: http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk) • Focus is on climate change scenario construction using GCM output: • Warm start experiments

  4. SRES Scenarios A1:A introductions of new and more efficient technologies world of rapid economic growth and rapid A2:A very heterogenous world with an emphasis on familiy values and local traditions B1:A world of „dematerialization“ and introduction of clean technologies B2:A world with an emphasis on local solutions to economic and environmental sustainability IS92a „business as usual“ scenario (1992)

  5. IS92a, and now SRES emissions scenarios • GCMs which have been involved in model intercomparison exercises

  6. IPCC-TGCIA Recommendation “Users should design and apply multiple scenarios in impacts assessments, where these scenarios span a range of possible future climates, rather than designing and applying a single ‘best guess’ scenario”

  7. Multiple Scenarios

  8. The CCIS Projecthttp://www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios

  9. Web Site Products Introduction to web site products - PowerPoint tour Scenarios ‘primer’

  10. What’s available ... • Climate change scenarios for Canada and North America • At original GCM resolution; 0.5° latitude/longitude • Mean changes wrt 1961-1990 for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s; also monthly time series, anomalies • Monthly, seasonal and annual values • Climate variables, minimum data set: mean, minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, a radiation variable, a humidity variable, wind speed • Advice on scenario construction, downscaling, applications, limitations and uncertainties http://www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios

  11. Scenarios from ... • Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CGCM1, CGCM2) • Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCM2, HadCM3) • Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIROMk2b) • German Climate Research Centre (ECHAM4) • Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL-R15) • Japanese Centre for Climate Research Studies (CCSR-98) • US National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR-PCM)

  12. Visualisation and Download

  13. Related Information

  14. Application of Climate Change Scenarios Simplest method: apply monthly or seasonal scenario changes from appropriate grid box to observed data (either daily, monthly or seasonal).

  15. Scenario Application Scenario changes applied to 1961-1990 climate normal data to obtain ‘actual’ values for the 2020s

  16. 2020s PRISM: 1961-90 Normals 2050s Scenario Application Present and Future Precipitation in British Columbia 2080s [Supplied by Bill Taylor, Environment Canada, Pacific and Yukon Region]

  17. Bioclimate Profiles

  18. Scenario Tools • Scatter plots for scenario selection • Access to downscaling tools

  19. Scatter Plots

  20. LARS-WG: stochastic weather generator Access to SDSM and predictor variables for North America (soon global) Downscaling Tools

  21. Recommendations • Use of climate change scenarios which preserve as far as is possible physical plausibility and spatial compatibility - implies use of GCM-derived scenarios • Use of multiple scenarios in order to capture the ‘state of the science’ range of future climate • If downscaling is considered to be necessary, be aware of the limitations of the particular methodology - does the ‘cost’ of downscaling add sufficient value to the coarse-scale scenarios?

  22. What’s next for the CCIS Project?

  23. Scenario Significance CGCM1 GAX: Winter precipitation change (%)

  24. GCMs and Extreme Events ‘Hot’ summer

  25. Future Plans • Interpretation of scenarios • descriptive indices, such as degree days, a drought index … • scenarios of changes in climate variability and extremes • further work on downscaling • more scenarios as more GCM output becomes available

More Related