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Monitoring and evaluation of adaptation actions

Monitoring and evaluation of adaptation actions. Stuart Butchart, BirdLife International. Regal Sunbird. PRESENT. 2085. PRESENT. Projected species richness of 14 Albertine Rift endemic birds. 2025. 2085. Climate change impacts on sites. High level of species turnover at many sites.

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Monitoring and evaluation of adaptation actions

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  1. Monitoring and evaluation of adaptation actions Stuart Butchart, BirdLife International

  2. Regal Sunbird PRESENT 2085

  3. PRESENT Projected species richness of 14 Albertine Rift endemic birds 2025 2085

  4. Climate change impacts on sites • High level of species turnover at many sites % turnover of trigger species Hole et al. 2009 Ecol. Letters 12: 420-431

  5. The need for monitoring • Uncertainty in: • Which species will be affected • Where they are projected to shift their distributions to • When the changes will happen • How interactions between species will change • How community composition will change at sites • What actions we should implement to enhance adaptation • How human adaptation will impact all of this

  6. What to monitor? • Process: adaptation actions • Impacts: state of species (distribution/abundance/demography) & habitats (extent, condition) • Other pressures (threats) • Other responses (conservation actions, policy interventions) 

  7. BirdLife’s approach to monitoring • Bird population monitoring – systematic censusing • IBA monitoring – simple State-Pressure-Response framework at important sites for biodiversity

  8. Bird population monitoring • Randomised or semi-randomised locations across country/region • Stratified sampling • Standardised methods: area-based censuses, line transects or point transects • Trained volunteers • National & local coordinators

  9. The UK Sustainable Development Indicator for wild bird population trends Source: RSPB/BTO/JNCC/DEFRA. Wild Bird Indices for habitats in Europe and North America Source: EBCC/RSPB/BirdLife International/Statistics Netherlands; US NABCI Committee (2009); McRae et al. (2010) Arctic Species Trend Index. CAFF International, Iceland

  10. Climatic Impact Index Current distribution • Combine trends from bird population monitoring with projections from climate envelope modelling • Divide species into those expected to increase in distribution with climate change and those expected to decrease • Calculate mean trends for each group

  11. Climatic Impact Index for Europe  Gregory et al. 2009 PLoS ONE 4: e4678

  12. Climatic Impact Index for Europe  Gregory et al. 2009 PLoS ONE 4: e4678

  13. Important Bird Areas

  14. IBA monitoring

  15. State (condition) • Proportional species population change orhabitat extent and quality change • Species: current population as % of reference population, based on population counts, surveys, proxies (nests, numbers captured etc.) • Habitat (as proxy for species population): current extent & quality vs reference levels • Favourable, near favourable, unfavourable, very unfavourable

  16. Pressure (threats) • Which threats impact the site (IUCN classification scheme) • Timing: past, present, near or distant future • Scope: proportion of site/population affected: little (<10%), some (10-49%) majority (50-90%), all (>90%) • Severity of declines/deterioration: no or little deterioration, slow deterioration, moderate deterioration, fast deterioration • Impact calculated automatically

  17. Responses (action) • Conservation designation: all/most/some/none of site under appropriate protection designation • Management planning: • a current and comprehensive plan exists • an out-of-date or incomplete plan exists • management planning is underway • no plan exists • Conservation action: • all appropriate action is being taken • most of appropriate action is being taken • some limited action is being taken • no action is being taken Final score: High, Medium, Low, Negligible

  18. Non-Protected Areas Protected Areas Pressure State 3 Response 3 3 2 2 2 Mean scores Mean scores Mean scores 1 1 1 0 0 0 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Years • IBA indices Better condition Greater threats More conservation Trends for Kenyan IBAs (n=36) for 1999-2005 Mwangi et al. (2010)

  19. Incorporating climate change into IBA monitoring • Add basic climate monitoring • Focus on species and sites most likely to be impacted soonest • Track altitudinal distribution • Monitor implementation of adaptation actions • As module for assessing ecosystem services (‘benefits’) is developed, consider impacts of climate change on service delivery 

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