Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas

1. Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 22 February 2010 For Real-time information: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/

2. Outline • Highlights • ENSO Current Status • MJO Current Status • Monsoons Current Status • Southern Hemisphere Circulation • Rainfall & Temperature Patterns • NCEP/GFS Model Forecast • Forecast Verification

3. Highlights • Australia: Heavy rain overspread most of eastern Australia during the past week. The GFS predicts near-average rainfall across this region during the upcoming week. • Southern Africa: During the last 7 days, near-to-slightly above-average rainfall was observed across corn-growing regions of southern Africa, with the heaviest rainfall over Mozambique. The GFS predicts above-average rainfall to continue over Mozambique during the next two weeks. • South America: Below-average rainfall continued over many areas in eastern Brazil during the last 7 days. The GFS predicts near-average rainfall for most of eastern Brazil during the next 7 days and above-average rainfall during week 2, which would be a break from the dryness over that area observed during the last 30 days.

4. ENSO Current Status • General Summary: • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºCabove-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010. During the last 4 weeks (24 Jan - 20 Feb 2010), equatorial SSTs were more than 1.0°C above average between 175°E and 125°W. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

5. MJO Index -- Recent Evolution Ensemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast • The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes • The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO • Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation. • Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength • Line colors distinguish different months RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days light gray shading: 90% of forecasts dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members Green Line – Ensemble Mean MJO Current Status The MJO Index indicates a signal in phases 7 and 8 with little or no eastward movement, which is consistent with El Nino conditions. The GFS MJO index forecasts indicate that the signal will remain generally in phases 6, 7 and 8 with no eastward propagation. El Nino conditions continue to contribute to the strong amplitude and behavior of the MJO index forecast. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

6. Southern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status South America Southern Africa Australia Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Monsoon Season: OCT-MAR During the previous 90 days, below-average rainfall was observed across eastern croplands of southern Africa, most notably in Mozambique. During the previous 90 days, much below-average rainfall over northern and eastern south America contrasted with much above-average rainfall in southern Brazil, Uruguay, and northeastern Argentina. During the previous 90 days, precipitation was near- to above-average across north central and east-central Australia, while pockets of below-average rainfall were present along the northwestern coastline. For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/

7. 200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies- Recent 7 days Southern Hemisphere Circulation C C A Low-level (925 hPa or ~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out. • During 14-20 Feb 2010, anomalous 200-hPa cyclonic circulation (black C) was observed at low latitudes near the coast of Bahia, Brazil, and another one over western Australia. An enhanced anticyclonic circulation center was present off of Australia’s southeastern coast. • At low levels of the atmosphere, above-average temperatures were observed across western Australia and portions of northern South America. Below-average temperatures were observed over most of Argentina.

8. Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days Southern Hemisphere Circulation Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter-than-average conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-average conditions. CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations. • During 14-20 Feb 2010, anomalous sinking motion (blue rectangle) and dry conditions dominated large portions of eastern Brazil, on the west flank of the anomalous cyclonic circulation (see previous slide).Anomalous rising motion (negative omega) and above-average rainfall were observed over Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay and portions of southern Brazil, (red rectangle). • Strong rising motion and heavy rainfall has been observed over eastern Australia, while strong anomalous sinking motion (positive omega) and dry conditions dominated most of central and western Australia.

9. Australia • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast • Tropical Cyclone Laurence

10. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, widespread showers and thunderstorms overspread over most eastern Australia. Below-average precipitation was observed along Australia’s northwestern coastline.

11. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Anomaly Heavy rainfall across eastern Australia produced accumulations well above average, particularly across interior New South Wales and Queensland.

12. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly Above-average rainfall across the eastern half of Australia contrasted with drier than average conditions across northwestern areas. The heaviest rainfall during the previous 30 days was located across Queensland’s northern peninsula region, including Australia’s primary sugarcane croplands.

13. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days • 30-day rainfall totals are much above average over southern Queensland (surplus of about 100 mm).

14. Temperature (°C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly • During 14-20 Feb 2010, temperatures were near- to above-average across most of eastern Australia, and above-average over most of western Australia.

15. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 22 Feb 2010 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly For Days 1-7 (22 – 28 February 2010), above-average rainfall is predicted over northwestern Australia, while near-average rainfall is predicted over Australia’a crop lands.

16. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 22 Feb 2010 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly For Days 8-14 (1-7 March 2010), the GFS predicts widespread rainfall over northwestern and northeastern Australia.

17. Forecast from 8 Feb 2009 Valid 15-21 Feb 2010 Forecast from 16 Feb 2009 Valid 16-22 Feb 2010 Observed 15-21 Feb 2010 Total Total Total Anomaly Anomaly Anomaly Forecast Verification: Australia NOT AVAILABLE NOT AVAILABLE

18. Southern Africa • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

19. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days Total Anomaly • During the last 7 days, generally near-to-slightly above-average rainfall was observed across corn-growing regions of southern Africa.

20. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days Total Anomaly During the last 15 days, generally below-average rainfall was observed across corn-growing regions of southern Africa, though slightly above-average rainfall was observed over portions of Mozambique.

21. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, generally below-average rainfall was observed across southern Africa’s croplands, though portions of South Africa’s central and western maize triangle observed near- to above-average rainfall.

22. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days • 30-day rainfall time series depict the generally drier-than-average conditions across most of southern Africa, with the exception of Mozambique (top right panel).

23. Temperature (C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly During 14-20 February, temperatures across southern Africa were near average.

24. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 22 Feb 2010 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly For Days 1-7 (22 – 28 Feb 2010), the GFS predicts above-average rainfall across Mozambique and southern South Africa and below-average rainfall over South Africa’s corn belt (red box, left panel).

25. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 22 Feb 2010 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly For Days 8-14 (1-7 March 2010), the GFS continue to predict above-average rainfall across Mozambique and near-average rainfall across South Africa’s maize triangle.

26. Forecast from 8 Feb 2009 Valid 15-21 Feb 2010 Forecast from 16 Feb 2009 Valid 16-22 Feb 2010 Observed 15-21 Feb 2010 Total Total Total Anomaly Anomaly Anomaly Forecast Verification: Southern Africa NOT AVAILABLE NOT AVAILABLE

27. Brazil & Argentina • Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns • Temperature Patterns • GFS Forecast

28. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly • In Brazil, below-average rainfall continued across eastern farmlands, particularly across Minas Gerais, eastern Goias, and western Bahia. • In Argentina, above-average rainfall fell across most of the major crop lands. Heavy rainfall was observed over southern Santa Fe and Entre Rios. Brazil Argentina

29. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 15 Days Total Anomaly • In Brazil, rainfall was predominantly below-average across most regions east of the Amazon. Some thunderstorms fired across Mato Grosso during the most recent week. • Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall was observed across central and eastern Argentina during the previous two weeks. Brazil Argentina

30. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly • Across Brazil, large 30 day precipitation deficits were observed across eastern farmlands, while pockets of heavy rain were observed over southern Mato Grosso and southern Brazil. • In Argentina, drier than average conditions were observed over northern Argentina, while above –average rainfall prevailed over the eastern Argentina crop lands. Brazil Argentina

31. Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days • 30-day time series depict the generally drier-than-average conditions across central and southeastern Brazil during the past month (top right panel).

32. Temperature (°C) - BrazilBased on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly During 14-22 February, temperatures were generally above average across Brazil.

33. Temperature (°C) - ArgentinaBased on GTS Stations (no QC) Extreme Minimum Extreme Maximum Mean Anomaly Temperatures were above-average across much of northern Argentina last week, with maximum temperatures between 35°C and 40°C in northern cotton regions.

34. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 22 Feb 2010 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly • For Days 1-7 (22-28 February),near-average rainfall is predicted over most of Brazil, while above-average rainfall is predicted over Colombia and northern Ecuador and below-average rainfall is predicted over northern/central Peru.

35. NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts Forecasts from 22 Feb 2010 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly • For Days 8-14 (1-7 Mar), above-average rainfall is predicted for most of eastern Brazil, while below-average rainfall is predicted over southern Brazil, Paraguay and northern Argentina.

36. Forecast from 8 Feb 2009 Valid 15-21 Feb 2010 Forecast from 16 Feb 2009 Valid 16-22 Feb 2010 Observed 15-21 Feb 2010 Total Total Total Anomaly Anomaly Anomaly Forecast Verification: South America NOT AVAILABLE NOT AVAILABLE

37. Major World Crop Areas and Climate Profiles Crop Calendars by Month http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/MWCACP http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/CropCalendars USDA Crop Information