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Climate recap and outlook. Philip Mote and Nate Mantua University of Washington Climate Impacts Group Boise, ID October 16, 2008. The CSES - Climate Impacts Group. http://cses.washington.edu/cig/.

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Climate recap and outlook
Climate recap and outlook

Philip Mote and Nate Mantua

University of Washington

Climate Impacts Group

Boise, ID

October 16, 2008


The cses climate impacts group
The CSES - Climate Impacts Group

http://cses.washington.edu/cig/

Goal: help the Pacific Northwest become more resilient to climate variations and climate change

Supported by NOAA Climate Program Office as part of the Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) program


Accumulated precip for the past year
Accumulated Precip for the past year

Source:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.shtml


Accumulated precip for the past year1
Accumulated Precip for the past year

Source:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.shtml






Land and Ocean temperature anomaly was +0.72°C (1901-2000 climatology), 8th warmest in 129 years


Pacific outlook from oct 2007
Pacific Outlook from Oct 2007 climatology), 8th warmest in 129 years

  • Forecasts: La Niña most likely situation for 2007-08

  • PDO: Transiting to cool phase as La Niña fades

Forecast summaries

European Center

3/2007

2008

2007

2008



Last year s outlook wet autumn and winter equal chances on temperature
Last year’s outlook: wet autumn and winter, equal chances on temperature

Temperature

Precipitation

OND

OND

DJF

DJF


Oct 07 mar 08 anomalies
Oct 07-Mar 08 anomalies on temperature


Blame the circulation pattern
Blame the circulation pattern on temperature

500mb height anomalies Dec 2007-June 2008: anomalous flow from NNW

L

H


Almost a typical la ni a
Almost a typical La Niña on temperature

Last 8 La Niñas Dec-Jun

Dec 2007-June 2008


This year

This year? on temperature


Observed sst anomalies september 21 27 2008
Observed SST anomalies on temperatureSeptember 21-27, 2008


La nada
La Nada on temperature

Tropical ocean temperatures have returned to near average


Equatorial subsurface ocean temperature anomaly
Equatorial subsurface ocean temperature anomaly on temperature

Colder than average waters in the east indicate a shallow thermocline, favoring additional cooling in the near term


The latest enso forecasts
The latest ENSO forecasts on temperature

See http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO

European Center

Forecast summary


Pdo forecast drifting toward neutral territory index has been negative since last september
PDO forecast: drifting toward neutral territory -- index has been negative since last September

From June-July-August 2008 initial conditions

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/forecast1/for1pdo.html


Another factor in seasonal forecasts
Another factor in seasonal forecasts been negative since last September

PNW December-January-February temperatures


30 day outlook ec from sept 30 2008
30-day outlook: EC been negative since last September(from Sept 30, 2008)

See http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov


Cpc outlooks from sept 18 2008
CPC Outlooks from Sept 18, 2008 been negative since last September

precipitation

temperature


The bottom line
The Bottom Line been negative since last September

  • expectation for ENSO-neutral conditions, combined with recent trends, favors “Equal Chances” for fall-winter precipitation and a small increase in the odds for warmer than average temperatures

    • ENSO neutral and La Niña years tended to enhance the risk of flood events in some northern Idaho river basins in the 20th century (Hamlet and Lettenmaier 2007)

  • Additional influence from PDO might offset another factor…

    • Persistent warming trends

See http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov


Sept 30 estimated soil moisture percentiles
Sept 30 estimated soil moisture percentiles been negative since last September

  • Courtesy of Andy Wood, University of Washington, data and images are available at

    http://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/monitor


Daily temperatures1
Daily Temperatures been negative since last September

-0.67ºC

+0.03ºC

-0.64ºC


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