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Climate Outlook – November 2012. Brief, Weak El Niño SST Condition in Jul, Aug, Sep Ended at Unusual Time. SST forecast and Obs for Recently Completed Season. ASO 2012 SST forecast from Jun. Correlation ( w.r.t . map average) Glob 0.55 Trop 0.51 Uncentered correlation

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slide1

Climate Outlook – November 2012

Brief, Weak El Niño SST Condition in Jul, Aug, Sep Ended at Unusual Time

slide2

SST forecast and Obs for Recently Completed Season

ASO

2012

SST

forecast

from Jun

Correlation

(w.r.t. map

average)

Glob 0.55

Trop 0.51

Uncentered

correlation

(w.r.t. clim

average):

Glob 0.61

Trop 0.53

ASO

2012

SST obs

anom

(deg C)

slide3

Verification of Most Recent Season Precipitation Forecast

ASO

2012

precip

tercile

categ

obs

Verification:

G: globe

T: tropics

this (mean

forcst 1997→)

rpss:

G 0.002 (0.009)

T 0.006 (0.016)

Rate of Return:

G 0.001 (0.009)

T 0.004 (0.017)

Heidke skill:

G 0.010 (0.045)

T 0.024 (0.071)

GROC:

G 0.523 (0.541)

T 0.537 (0.565)

ASO

2012

precip

probab

forecast

from

mid-Jul

slide5

Verification of Most Recent Season Temperature Forecast

ASO

2012

temp

tercile

categ

obs

Verification:

G: globe

T: tropics

this (mean

forcst 1997→)

rpss:

G 0.179 (0.109)

T 0.185 (0.160)

Rate of Return:

G 0.191 (0.106)

T 0.191 (0.166)

Heidke skill:

G 0.399 (0.287)

T 0.387 (0.373)

GROC:

G 0.673 (0.588)

T 0.683 (0.639)

ASO

2012

temp

probab

forecast

from

mid-Jul

slide10

Last week’s SST anomaly

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slide12

Stronger El Niño

El Nino

La Nina

StrongerLa Niña

slide13

Outgoing

Longwave

Radiation

Anomalies

5N – 5S

Climate

Prediction

Center

NCEP

La Nina

signature

in atmosphere

weak

El Nino

signature

in atmosphere

slide14

Stronger La Niña

** ******** ***** **

Stronger

El Niño

slide21

Nov

2010

Nov

2011

Nov

2012

Enhanced trade winds

Thermocline depth mixed, averaging near average

Oceanic ENSO state: neutral(++)

slide22

Recent phase and strength of

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

slide30

November 2012 SST forecasts

(plus and minus uncertainty scenarios at right)

PLUS

MEAN

MINUS

slide33

Tropical Cyclone ForecastsNovember 2012

NTC = Number of Tropical Cyclones

ACE = Accumulated Cyclone Energy

slide34

Six IRI focus areas:

12-year skill of IRI precipitation forecasts

RPSS

GROC

RPSS

GROC

score

R

G

R

G

R

G

R

G

R

G

R

G

slide35

This ppt file is available to anyone

on the shared drive:

……./tonyb/fctbriefingmonyr

or

……/tonyb/iri_html

/fctbriefingmonyr

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