slide1
Download
Skip this Video
Download Presentation
Climate Outlook – February 2012

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 46

Climate Outlook – February 2012 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 91 Views
  • Uploaded on

Climate Outlook – February 2012. Weak/moderate La Nina expected to dissipate in late March or April. SST forecast and Obs for Recently Completed Season. NDJ 2011-12 SST forecast From Oct. Correlation ( w.r.t . map average) Glob 0.68 Trop 0.75 Uncentered correlation

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about ' Climate Outlook – February 2012' - koren


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
slide1

Climate Outlook – February 2012

Weak/moderate La Nina expected to dissipate in late March or April

slide2

SST forecast and Obs for Recently Completed Season

NDJ

2011-12

SST

forecast

From Oct

Correlation

(w.r.t. map

average)

Glob 0.68

Trop 0.75

Uncentered

correlation

(w.r.t. clim

average):

Glob 0.68

Trop 0.75

NDJ

2011-12

SST obs

anom

(deg C)

slide3

SST and Precipitation Obs for Recently Completed Season

NDJ

2011-12

SST obs

anom

(deg C)

warm

cold

NDJ

2011-12

precip

anom

(mm/day)

wet

dry

slide4

Verification of Most Recent Season Precipitation Forecast

NDJ

2011-12

precip

tercile

categ

obs

Verification:

G: globe

T: tropics

this (mean

forcst 1997→)

rpss:

G 0.017 (0.009)

T 0.039 (0.016)

Rate of Return:

G 0.018 (0.009)

T 0.043 (0.017)

Heidke skill:

G 0.061 (0.046)

T 0.095 (0.073)

GROC:

G 0.552 (0.543)

T 0.580 (0.569)

NDJ

2011-12

precip

probab

forecast

from

mid-Oct

slide6

Verification of Most Recent Season Temperature Forecast

NDJ

2011-12

temp

tercile

categ

obs

Verification:

G: globe

T: tropics

this (mean

forcst 1997→)

rpss:

G-0.019 (0.112)

T -0.029 (0.169)

Rate of Return:

G 0.011 (0.108)

T 0.031 (0.174)

Heidke skill:

G 0.073 (0.291)

T 0.126 (0.390)

GROC:

G 0.569 (0.579)

T 0.594 (0.626)

NDJ

2011-12

temp

probab

forecast

from

mid-Oct

slide12

Last week’s SST anomaly

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

slide14

Stronger El Niño

El Nino

Jan

La Nina

StrongerLa Niña

slide15

very strong

La Nina

signature

in atmosphere

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

Outgoing

Longwave

Radiation

Anomalies

5N – 5S

Climate

Prediction

Center

NCEP

La Nina

signature

in atmosphere

slide16

Stronger La Niña

**** *********** *******

Stronger

El Niño

slide22

Feb

2010

Feb

2011

Feb

2012

enhanced trades persist

Thermocline depth below average in eastern part of basin

ENSO state: weak to moderate La Nina

slide23

Recent phase and strength of

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

mid-

Feb

2012

mid-

Jan

2012

Moderate

Weak

MJO

MJO

+

+

Weak/

Moderate

La Nina

Weak/

Moderate

La Nina

=

=

Weak(+)

La Nina

Weak/

Moderate

La Nina

slide31

February 2012 SST forecasts

(plus and minus uncertainty scenarios at right)

PLUS

MEAN

MINUS

slide34

Tropical Cyclone ForecastsFebruary 2012

No TC Forecasts in February

slide35

Six IRI focus areas:

12-year skill of IRI precipitation forecasts

RPSS

GROC

RPSS

GROC

score

R

G

R

G

R

G

R

G

R

G

R

G

slide36

This ppt file is available to anyone

on the shared drive:

……./tonyb/fctbriefingmonyr

or

……/tonyb/iri_html

/fctbriefingmonyr

ad