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Climate Outlook – February 2012. Weak/moderate La Nina expected to dissipate in late March or April. SST forecast and Obs for Recently Completed Season. NDJ 2011-12 SST forecast From Oct. Correlation ( w.r.t . map average) Glob 0.68 Trop 0.75 Uncentered correlation

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Climate Outlook – February 2012

Weak/moderate La Nina expected to dissipate in late March or April


SST forecast and Obs for Recently Completed Season

NDJ

2011-12

SST

forecast

From Oct

Correlation

(w.r.t. map

average)

Glob 0.68

Trop 0.75

Uncentered

correlation

(w.r.t. clim

average):

Glob 0.68

Trop 0.75

NDJ

2011-12

SST obs

anom

(deg C)


SST and Precipitation Obs for Recently Completed Season

NDJ

2011-12

SST obs

anom

(deg C)

warm

cold

NDJ

2011-12

precip

anom

(mm/day)

wet

dry


Verification of Most Recent Season Precipitation Forecast

NDJ

2011-12

precip

tercile

categ

obs

Verification:

G: globe

T: tropics

this (mean

forcst 1997→)

rpss:

G 0.017 (0.009)

T 0.039 (0.016)

Rate of Return:

G 0.018 (0.009)

T 0.043 (0.017)

Heidke skill:

G 0.061 (0.046)

T 0.095 (0.073)

GROC:

G 0.552 (0.543)

T 0.580 (0.569)

NDJ

2011-12

precip

probab

forecast

from

mid-Oct


Verification of Most Recent Season Temperature Forecast

NDJ

2011-12

temp

tercile

categ

obs

Verification:

G: globe

T: tropics

this (mean

forcst 1997→)

rpss:

G-0.019 (0.112)

T -0.029 (0.169)

Rate of Return:

G 0.011 (0.108)

T 0.031 (0.174)

Heidke skill:

G 0.073 (0.291)

T 0.126 (0.390)

GROC:

G 0.569 (0.579)

T 0.594 (0.626)

NDJ

2011-12

temp

probab

forecast

from

mid-Oct


Last week’s SST anomaly

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

|

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------


Stronger El Niño

El Nino

Jan

La Nina

StrongerLa Niña


very strong

La Nina

signature

in atmosphere

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

Outgoing

Longwave

Radiation

Anomalies

5N – 5S

Climate

Prediction

Center

NCEP

La Nina

signature

in atmosphere


Stronger La Niña

**** *********** *******

Stronger

El Niño





Feb

2010

Feb

2011

Feb

2012

enhanced trades persist

Thermocline depth below average in eastern part of basin

ENSO state: weak to moderate La Nina


Recent phase and strength of

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

mid-

Feb

2012

mid-

Jan

2012

Moderate

Weak

MJO

MJO

+

+

Weak/

Moderate

La Nina

Weak/

Moderate

La Nina

=

=

Weak(+)

La Nina

Weak/

Moderate

La Nina





February 2012 SST forecasts

(plus and minus uncertainty scenarios at right)

PLUS

MEAN

MINUS


Tropical Cyclone ForecastsFebruary 2012

No TC Forecasts in February


Six IRI focus areas:

12-year skill of IRI precipitation forecasts

RPSS

GROC

RPSS

GROC

score

R

G

R

G

R

G

R

G

R

G

R

G


This ppt file is available to anyone

on the shared drive:

……./tonyb/fctbriefingmonyr

or

……/tonyb/iri_html

/fctbriefingmonyr




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