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The Changing Nature of PE work Managing Risks and Opportunities in a Growing Agenda

The Changing Nature of PE work Managing Risks and Opportunities in a Growing Agenda. Anand Rajaram, PRMPS PREM Learning Week June 17 th , 2002. PE Work: A Case of Punctuated Equilibrium? (with apologies to Stephen Jay Gould, R.I.P.).

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The Changing Nature of PE work Managing Risks and Opportunities in a Growing Agenda

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  1. The Changing Nature of PE workManaging Risks and Opportunities in a Growing Agenda Anand Rajaram, PRMPS PREM Learning Week June 17th, 2002

  2. PE Work: A Case of Punctuated Equilibrium?(with apologies to Stephen Jay Gould, R.I.P.) • Until mid-1990s, PE agenda relatively stable and not central to Bank’s investment or adjustment programs • Post 1995 – growth of interest in institutional underpinnings of PE – PEM (influence of Pradhan-Campos-Holmes) • Late 1990s – Bank and donor recognition of budget as critical gateway to development impact – concept of fungibility - aid tied to PEM reform – policy-budget links –- PERC’s etc. • In last two years, explosive growth of interest in PE work

  3. Motivating factors • Within the Bank and among bilateral donors • Concerns about tracking use of HIPC resources • Increased interest in external assessment of client budget/financial/procurement systems • PRSP emphasis on MTEFs, costing programs and allocating resources to priorities • Concern about development effectiveness leading to focus on outputs and development outcomes from PE • More gradually, sectors moving towards systemic analysis of policies, budgets and service delivery • Within governments • Active desire to improve aid management • Passive acquiescence to new donor agenda

  4. A Large Agenda: PE work and Poverty Reduction Policy Process PE Analysis Fiscal Sustainability Allocative Efficiency Incidence Analysis Poverty Reduction ?? Fiscal risk Service Del.survey Tracking surveys PE Management Budget Formulation Budget Execution Reporting & oversight Procurement Related items Civil Service Reform Decentralization

  5. Coming Soon to a PER near you:Costing MDGs, Gender, Participatory BudgetingMight we Break the Camel’s Back? “Pro-poor PE” Policy Process (PRSP?) PE Analysis Fiscal Sustainability Allocative Efficiency Incidence Analysis Missing Links Poverty Reduction ?? Fiscal risk Service Del.survey Tracking surveys PE Management Budget Formulation Budget Execution Reporting & oversight Procurement Civil Service Reform Decentralization Related items

  6. The PE Arena: Many new actors, multiple agendas • Cast, Props, Cameras, Action! • The country economists doing PERs • The accountants doing CFAAs • The procurement guys doing CPARs • The integrationists doing PEIRs/PEPFMRs/CIFAs • The HD economists doing SSEFRs • Political scientists doing IGRs • Sub national PERs of various hues • Who’s directing this show? What is the plot? • Where is the government in this scheme? • Did the Butler do it?

  7. Risks of a poorly managed PE agenda • Huge multi-volume reports attempting to do all at one go, or • Fragmented, uncoordinated analysis by multiple networks with overlaps, gaps and potentially contradictory advice • Either case, • high transactions costs for government • Difficult for government to absorb/contribute to/own such analysis • Lack of coherent Bank advice to client • Potential to miss important bits of analysis • PE impact on poor/ outcomes • Inappropriate sequencing of reforms • Sub-optimal use of Bank staff and resources • Poor integration into CAS

  8. Issues needing attention • How can we manage such a large PE agenda within an agreed common framework? • Over time • Across networks and other partners • To ensure it supports government’s decision cycle (PRSP etc.) • To derive an external assessment of budget systems • To inform our CAS • How do we achieve internal Bank coordination? • What are guideline rules for engagement with government/donors?

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