CRITICAL THINKING SKILLS Day 2 Biases and Fallacies

1. CRITICAL THINKING SKILLSDay 2Biases and Fallacies Civics SRMHS Mr. Hensley

2. Three Sources of Bias • Too much information can result in our seeing patterns in the data that aren’t actually there. • Too little information forces our brains to fill in the gaps and then, we’re literally just making stuff up. • Too much emphasis on speed can result in over-confidence and hanging on to beliefs that have been proven false.

3. We overvalue what we see often • This is known as the availability heuristic • We see stories about crime on social media all the time – so crime rates must be high • Error: the space the media devotes to crime stories is NOT proportional to actual crime rates

4. World’s Worst-Selling Newspaper

5. We overvalue what confirms our beliefs • If we want to believe, then we can ignore the times someone was wrong and only focus on the times they were right • Ignoring evidence that contradicts a belief you have is called “confirmation bias” and is one of the problems of having too much data

6. We see patterns that aren’t there • Finding patterns in nature can be a matter of life or death – but we often see patterns that just aren’t there (“pareidolia”) • We also think the universe follows patterns – if we flip ten heads in a row, we think we are “due” for a tail (this is the gambler’s fallacy)

7. Fun with Pareidolia

8. Not Enough Info: We fill in blanks • Studies show good-looking people get more promotions, earn more money and are seen as more trustworthy (the “halo effect”) • Some people use group stereotypes to make assumptions about all members of that group (racism)

9. We Simplify Probabilities • Calculating probabilities is hard, it’s easier to simplify or ignore them • We often underestimate the probability of disaster (the normalcy bias) or assume if something unlikely could possibly happen, then it must happen (known as “appeal to possibility”)

10. We Simplify Time • Time is a very difficult concept to understand and when faced with complicated decisions, we tend to emphasize the sooner and forget the later • Ex: procrastination • This is called “hyperbolic discounting” • It makes adaptive sense in a chaotic environment

12. Going Too Fast: Overconfidence • We consistently (and greatly) overestimate our abilities at new tasks • This is known as the Dunning-Kruger Effect • This motivates us to try new things – but can lead to catastrophic failure • D and F students think they got A’s and B’s • 2016 Presidential Election?

14. We prefer the simplest solutions • Weirdly, if given a complex task and a simple task, groups spend a lot more time on the simple task (this is known as “bike shedding”) • Also weird – rhyming statements are considered more true than non-rhyming statements (“rhyme-as-reason”)

15. Worst of all: Belief Perseverance • We hang on to false beliefs, even when given evidence that contradicts us • This keeps our confidence high but also increases the risk of a very bad decision • Cult membership often increases after a failed prediction • Ex: Jonestown 1978

16. What can we do? • Think SLOW not fast • Make sure you have all the relevant information • Be sure you are aware of your own biases • Confidence is good but remember the Dunning-Kruger Effect! • Always think twice (or at least once more)