Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports to CAFTA
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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports to CAFTA – DR Countries. Dominican Republic. Guatemala. Honduras. Nicaragua. El Salvador. Costa Rica. May 2006.

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Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Exports to CAFTA–DR Countries

Dominican Republic

Guatemala

Honduras

Nicaragua

El Salvador

Costa Rica

May 2006


Sustained Strong Economic GrowthHas Transformed the CAFTA–DR CountriesRegional economy has almost doubled since 1990, expected to expand another 65% by 2020

Aggregate Real GDP for CAFTA–DR (bil $)

Source: Global Insight


Sustained Economic Growth Is Changing the Demographics of the CAFTA–DR Countries, Boosting The Middle Class …By 2020, growth of the middle class could transform food markets, boost imports

Millions of CAFTA–5 households with real PPP incomes over $20k

By 2020, the region’s primary source of growth for U.S. exporters will be the middle class, which will account for 40% of households in the CAFTA–DR countries, up from just 24% in 2000.

CAFTA-5 is Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Data NA for Dominican Republic

NOTE: Middle class is defined as those households with real PPP adjusted incomes exceeding $20,000/year

Source: Analysis by FAS/USDA using Global Insight’s Global Consumer Markets data


… And CAFTA’s Retail Food Purchases Growth of purchases during the next 15 years, plus improved market access under CAFTA-DR, means new export opportunities for U.S. food and agricultural producers.

CAFTA-5 Real Food ExpendituresBillion $ (1997=100)

FTA could accelerate the region’s income and food consumption growth even further

CAFTA-5 is Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Data NA for Dominican Republic

Source: Analysis by FAS/USDA using Global Insight’s Global Consumer Markets data


Strong Growth in CAFTA–DR’s Food Demand is Boosting U.S. Exports—Record $2 Billion in 2006Export growth is broad-based—bulk and high-value products

U.S. Agricultural Exports to CAFTA–DR ($ million)

U.S. exports to CAFTA–DR are up by 200% since FY 1990, versus only 60% to the rest of the world.

Bulk Commodities

Intermediate Products

Consumer Foods


Most U.S. Agricultural Exports To CAFTA-DR Have Grown Significantly During Past Decade

Strong economic growth and expanding middle class have fueled gains in U.S. exports

U.S. Ag Exports (mil $)


Feed grains

Rice

Wheat

Cheese

Poultry meat

High quality beef

Pork (esp bacon and offals)

Fruits (esp grapes, raisins, apples, pears, cherries, peaches, kiwi, canned fruit, juices)

Vegetables (particularly frozen fries, fresh and processed tomatos)

Nuts (almonds, walnuts, pistachios)

Wine, bottled

Soybean meal and refined oil

Processed grocery products (particularly soups/broths, cookies and biscuits, and canned dog/cat food

Best Export Prospects Over Next 3–5 YearsStrong underlying demand growth and/or reduced tariffsshould benefit these U.S. exports most


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