Recent IGBP activity

1. Recent IGBP activity Olga Solomina IGBP Vice Chair

2. IGBP Synthesis Book Series FOCUS: GLOBAL CHANGE AND THE EARTH SYSTEM

3. New Integration, Synthesis and Exploration Activity IGBP is launching a second major international synthesis of key policy-relevant areas within global environmental-change research Planet UnderPressure:knowledge and solutions 10 NEW TOPICS IDENTIFIED

4. New Integration, Synthesis and Exploration Activity The role of changing nutrient loads in coastal zones and the open ocean in an increased CO2 World (J. W.Erisman) Geoengineering (L. Russell) Global Nitrogen assessment (J.W. Erisman, J. Galloway)

5. New Integration, Synthesis and Exploration Activity Earth-system impacts from changes in the cryosphere (R. Bradley) Megacities and the coastal zone (T. Zhu, A. Newton) Global environmental change and needs of least developed countries (P. Dube)

6. New Integration, Synthesis and Exploration Activity Land-use, land-cover change and climate (P. Kabat, D. Yakir) Future Earth-system resilience (rates of change with respect to forcing): Earth-system prediction (D. Schimel) Aerosols in the Earth system (K. Law) Supporting adaptation responses to climate change (M. Stafford-Smith)

7. Megacities in the Coastal Zone

8. Megacities in the Coastal Zone Key themes • Impacts of megacities on the coastal environment, ecosystem goods and services,economy and welfare • Impacts of pollution on human health • Effects of global change (e.g. seal level rise) on megacities • Contributions to environmental changes at regional and global scales • Policy/technological responses for reducing impacts • Co-benefits or cancellation of benefits of air quality improvement and climate changemitigation • Using past and present knowledge to assess impacts of future megacities

9. Megacities in the Coastal Zone Steering group Alice Newton* (University of Algarve, Portugal; anewton@ualg.pt), Bill Dennison*(University of Maryland Center for Environmetal Science; dennison@umces.edu), JozefPacyna* (Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Norway; jp@nilu.no), RameshRamachandran* (Institute for Ocean Management, India; rramesh_au@yahoo.com), EricWolanski* (Australian Institute of Marine Science; e.wolanski@aims.gov.au), Tong Zhu‡(Peking University, China; tzhu@pku.edu.cn) *Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ); ‡International Global AtmosphericChemistry (IGAC) Products envisaged 1-3 peer-reviewed papers, book and a summary for policymakers.

10. Megacities in the Coastal Zone Key Partners Several IGBP core projects and other Global Environmental Change programmes including the WCRP, UnitedNations Environment Programme (UNEP), International Council of Science Programme onEcosystem Change and Society (PECS), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change workinggroup 2 (IPCC WG2), Global Change System for Analysis, Research and Training (START)and the European Commission. The activity will build on previous and ongoing work on this topic, for example a report by International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) report anda Fast-Track Initiative co-sponsored by IGBP and the Scientific Committee on OceanicResearch (SCOR).

11. Earth-system impacts from changes in the cryosphere

12. Earth-system impacts from changes in the cryosphere Key themes • The interactions and links between ice sheet decay and ocean circulation, and the roleof ocean currents on sub-ice melting • The effects of glacier recession on ecosystems (freshwater and terrestrial) via changesin the hydrology and biogeochemistry of surface waters • The role of permafrost thawing on atmospheric methane concentration &biogeochemistry of surface waters (& downstream effects on coastal ecosystems) • The effects of polar & sub-polar ocean productivity on food chain dynamics with lossof sea-ice • The increase in hazardous conditions in montane valleys from glacial lake overflowfloods, due to glacier recession • The different regional changes in sea-level, resulting from melting of ice in Antarcticaversus Greenland, and consequences for coastal communities, land-use andinfrastructure • The consequences of mountain glacier recession for regional water resources, and theeffects on societies that rely on glacier meltwater

13. ... impacts from the cryosphere... Key partners The synthesis will engage all of IGBP’s core projects, and also complement cryosphererelatedprojects of major international bodies such as the World Climate Research Programme(CLIC), the World Bank, the Global Water System Project, theScientific Committee on Antarctic Research and the International Arctic Science Committee. Steering group Ray Bradley (University of Massachusetts, Amherst, USA), MartinBeniston (University of Genevamartin.beniston@unifr.ch), Olga Solomina (Institute ofGeography, Russian Academy of Sciences), Charles Vorosmarty(City University of New York), Mathias Vuille (The University atAlbany)

14. Global Environment Change and Sustainable Development: Needs of LeastDeveloped Countries

15. Needs of LeastDeveloped Countries • Assessing the potential responses to climate change and the factors that might limitsuch responses • Evaluating the role of indigenous/local/traditional/ knowledge systems in developingadaptation and mitigation strategies Key themes • Assessing the impact of climate change and climatic extremes on human health in the least developed countries

16. Needs of LeastDeveloped Countries Topic lead Opha Pauline Dube (University of Botswana, Gaborone, Botswana) Key partners The synthesis will engage IGBP’s core projects and national committees from LDCs, as wellas other global environmental change programmes, policymakers and NGOs.

17. Needs of LeastDeveloped Countries Products envisaged The activity aims to provide a coherent synthesis of key globalenvironmental change issues in LDCs that can be of value to the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC), and hence guide policy. A variety of other audiences are expected tobenefit, for example organisations involved in disaster management, non-governmentalorganisations (NGOs) and the private sector. Diverse communications products are thereforeenvisaged, including articles in peer-reviewed journals and summaries for policymakers.Effective use of media briefings and the Internet will be made.

18. Geoengineering: Facts or Fiction Key questions What unintended consequences of each geoengineering scheme for the geosphereand biosphere need to be considered, especially complex feedback processes? Which consequences can be quantified based on existing analogs in thecurrent perturbed Earth system? Which consequences could be tested with experiments in advance ofimplementation? How should the feedback processes be incorporated in the decision-makingprocess? What are the scientific uncertainties associated with each proposedgeoengineering scheme? What is the appropriate niche for possible geoengineering approaches? Can some geonengineering schemes be used to address regional problems,such as Arctic ice melt?

19. Geoengineering: Facts or Fiction Steering group Lynn Russell Colin Prentice (AIMES) Mark Stafford-Smith (IGBP) Oran Young (IHDP) Naomi Oreskes Phil Rasch (IGAC) Ulrike Lohmann Mario Molina Richard Leaitch David Andresen Key partners AIMES, IGAC, SOLAS, IHDP, WCRP, Diversitas, ESSP

20. Aerosols in the Earth System Key Questions • What are the sources, sinks and transformations of atmospheric aerosol and theirprecursors? How have these changed from past to present and how are theyanticipated to change in the future? • What are the interactions and impacts of aerosols on terrestrial and oceanicecosystems? Aerosols and biogeochemical cycles. • What is the impact of aerosols on the Earth’s radiation budget, hydrologicalcycle, ocean/atmospheric dynamics and climate? • What are the potential health impacts of large-scale changes in aerosol levels,currently and in the future? Key Partners IGAC, iLEAPS, ACPC, SOLAS, PAGES, GCP Logistical Support Kathy Law/Sarah Doherty (IGAC), Markuu Kulmala/AnniReisel (iLEAPS).

21. Earth System Resilience (rates of change with respect to forcing):Earth System Prediction Key issues Types of earth system change, rates of change, linear, continuous,discontinuous, abrupt, including its human components. Time dimension: understanding system components with different timeconstants. Spatial dimension: connectivity, spatial linkages, teleconnections. What are the predictability characteristics of earth system componentsfrom observations and modeling. What types of modelsareneeded for the next generation of earth systemmodels? Which ones are feasible in the next decade or so? What advances in theory, process understanding, models and observationsare needed to increase the skill of earth systems predictions? What types of abrupt changes are possible in the earth system and whatdo we know about their likelihood? What can we do to increase resilienceto some of these changes?

22. The Role of Land Cover and Land Use in Modulating Climate Key questions What are the rate, magnitude and type of land corver and land use changes (LUCC) in the pre-industrial and post-industrial era (deforestation, drying wetlands, large scale irrigation, urbanization, including LUCC scenarios until 2100)? Which type of LUCC Climate system feedbacks are important (Energy balance, biology and biogeochemistry, AC-chemistry)? Is there an evidence (paleo-proxy, more recent experimental, modeling) of LUCC being and important forcing agent of the climate in the past (e.g.in key monsoon regions of the World; in the Sahel, drying Florida wetlands etc.) Can we discriminate LUCC climate forcing signal from industrial GHG-signal: What is the relative and absolute share of the LUCC forcing starting from the beginning of industrial times (~1850, Both global and regional)? What are the plausible options to manage the future LUCC to mitigate and adapt to climate change? (Relation to geoengineering).

23. Global Nitrogen Assessment and a future outlook Key questions • What are the formation, storage, and losses of reactive nitrogen on different scales? • What are the changes in the inadvertent impacts of the human mobilization of nitrogen, e.g., acid rain, eutrophication of fresh and coastal waters, open ocean fertilization, oxidation capacity of the atmosphere, N20 production, etc. • What are future scenario’s for nitrogen, its benefits and effects? • How do we manage reactive nitrogen in relation to food security, energy use, human health, biodiversity, climate and ecosystems? • What are the options for nitrogen management to reduce the impacts? • What are the links between nitrogen and other biogeochemical cycles? • How can our scientific understanding of multiple nitrogen effects help the regions of the world develop a more integrated approach to managing nitrogen in the environment?

24. Key questions • What are the drivers, processes and effects of nutrients in large marine ecosystems, including theopen ocean? • What are the current and future mitigation options currently applied in large marine ecosystem regions? The role of changing nutrient loads in theOceanin an increased CO2 world • What are the impacts of climate variability and change and its extremes? • What are the links between nutrients and carbon? • What are cost-effective policies and measures to decrease the impacts ofincreased nutrient cycling?

25. Open Science Conference 2012 Planet Under Pressure: New Knowledge, New Solutions The three-day scienceconference will attract around 2500 world-leading environmentalchangescientists. It will be followed by a day dedicated todiscussing the findings with policymakers, the public, and funders ofenvironmental science.

26. Open Science Conference 2012 AUDIENCE • The global-change research community including regionalnetworking initiatives. The organisers are particularly keen toenable researchers from the developing world to attend theconference • International bodies such as the United Nations EnvironmentProgramme, WHO, UNESCO, and the World MeteorologicalOrganization • The International Council for Science • Government departments • Environmental protection agencies • Funding agencies • Environmental charities and other non-governmentalorganisations • International media

27. IGBP Global Change Magazine