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IGBP SCIENCE IN PAKISTAN By Dr. Amir Muhammed Chairman, Pakistan National IGBP Committee NATIONAL SETTING PAKISTAN GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE Population: 149 million Growth Rate: 2.06% Literacy rate: 51% Male 53% Female 29% GDP (per capita): $492

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IGBP SCIENCE IN PAKISTAN

By

Dr. Amir Muhammed

Chairman,

Pakistan National IGBP Committee



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PAKISTAN

GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION


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SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE

  • Population: 149 million

    Growth Rate: 2.06%

  • Literacy rate: 51%

    Male 53%

    Female 29%

  • GDP (per capita): $492

  • Population below poverty line:32%

    Urban 22%

    Rural 39%

  • Health Expenditure 0.7% of GDP

  • Rural population access to;

    Safe drinking water: 48%

    Sanitation: 23%


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CLIMATE

Mostly Arid and Semi arid; temperate in the North west

  • Hot dry summers,

  • Temperatures upto 530c (1270 F)

  • Rainfall

  • Annual average (weighted): 278 mm

    • South: 80 - 200 mm

    • North: 250 – 1600 mm

  • Monsoon Share: 49%




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    AGRICULTURE

    • Largest sector of Economy (24% of GDP)

    • 68% population rural; directly or indirectly depends on agriculture

    • Industries almost entirely agro based

    • >80% exports agro based

    • Predominantly depends on irrigation





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    RECENT TRENDS IN CLIMATE CHANGE

    • Drought in Pakistan for last three years

    • Forecast for continued dry weather in arid areas of the sub-continent

    • Extremes getting severe-intense short duration rains, prolonged dry spells


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    IMPACT ON RAINFALL & WARMING

    Historical comparison (1930-60 & 1960-90)

    • Rise in mean temp. of 0.5-1.00C in arid coastal areas, arid mountains and hyper arid plains

    • 10-15% decrease in rainfall in above regions

    • 15-35% increase in rainfall in monsoon zone

    • 0.5 to 0.75% Increase in solar radiation in Balochistan and Southern Pakistan

    • 1-2% decrease in cloud cover in central Pakistan with increase in sunshine hours


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    IMPACT ON WATER RESOURCES AND ECONOMY

    • Less snowfall, slow deposits & glacierization

    • Reduced river flows

    • Reduction in storage of water in dams

    • Less rainfall in arid areas, prolonged droughts



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    Air Pollution

    • Number of vehicles jumped from less than one million to about 4 million during last 20 years

    • Av. Suspended particulate matter in major cities 6 times higher than WHO standard

      Water Pollution

    • Existing water resources under threat due to untreated discharge of municipal and industrial wastes. (Pak-EPA study: Biological Oxygen Demand of river Ravi (Lahore)was 300 mg/litre (9 mg/l is acceptable)

    • Increasing use of agro-chemicals polluting river and underground water

    • Drinking water unfit for human consumption in most cities


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    Industrial Pollution

    • Imports 525 types of chemicals for processing industries, in addition to locally produced

    • Processing generates wastes & poses risk to public health, land, water and marine resources

    • Kasur Tanneries discharging effluent with chrome concn. of > 200 mg/litre (standard 1 mg/l) and COD of >7000/l ( limit 150 mg/l)


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    Marine Pollution

    • Karachi generates 280 mn gallons of domestic and industrial waste daily. 80% untreated waste from 6000 industrial units discharged into sea

    • 8,000T garbage generated daily in Karachi, dumped randomly at various locations. Some finds its way into sea

    • Karachi harbour area, including marine channel, is one of the most oil-polluted area along the coast of Pakistan

    • Serious threat to marine environment, fisheries and mangrove resources, affecting poor coastal population.

      Loss of Biodiversity



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    R&D EXPENDITURE

    Source: PCST Publications, “S&T Potential 1990” & “S&T Indicators of Pakistan, 1999”.

    UNESCO Year Book 1999


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    R&D MANPOWER

    Source: UNESCO Year Book 1999


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    SCIENCE LEARNED BODIES

    • Pakistan Academy of Sciences

    • Pakistan Association for Advancement of Science

    • Scientific Society of Pakistan


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    IGBP COMMITTEE OF PAKISTAN

    • Dr. Amir Muhammed: Agriculture

    • Dr. M.D. Shami Chemical Technology

    • Prof. Iftikar Malik Medical (Pathology)

    • Mr. Tajammal H. Hashmi Engineering

    • Dr. Iqbal Hussain Quershi Chemistry

    • Prof. Dr. M.Suhail Zubairy Electronics

    • Prof. Dr. M.Qasim Jan Geology

    • Dr. Qamaruzzaman Meteorology


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    INSTITUTIONS RELEVANT TO GC RESEARCH

    • Pakistan Council for Scientific & Industrial Research

    • Pakistan Agriculture Research Council

    • Pak. Council for Res. in Water Resources

    • Water and Power Development Authority

    • National Institute of Oceanography

    • Pakistan Meteorological Department

    • Global Change Impact Studies Centre


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    GC SCIENCE PROJECTS

    • Water Resources in South Asia – An assessment of Climate Change associated vulnerabilities and coping mechanisms” APN 2003-4(Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal,USA)

    • Global Change impact assessment for Himalayan Mountain Region for Environmental Management and Sustainable Development” APN #2003-3(Nepal, India, Pakistan)

    • Inventory of Glaciers and Glacial Lakes and the identification of Potential Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) affected by Global Warming in the Mountains APN #2003-5(Nepal, Pakistan, India, China, Japan, Mongolia, Republic of Korea)

    • An assessment of nutrient, sediment and carbon fluxes to the coastal zone in South Asia and their relationship to human activities-(APN #2001-20) : (Srilanka, Pakistan, India, Nepal, USA, Australia)

    • Management Responses to Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Mixed Cropping Systems of South Asia's Semi-Arid Tropics (CLIMAG) APN #2000-17(Australia, India, Pakistan, USA)

    • South Asian Regional Experiment to Characterize and Evaluate Physiological Response of Rice Varieties to CO2 Enrichment. APN #2000-08(India, Bangladesh,, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka)

    • APN Networking & Capacity Building Workshop#2000-NC02(Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka)


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    PROPOSAL FOR STRENGTHENING IGBP SCIENCE IN PAKISTAN

    • Sensitize policy makers to importance of GC studies

    • Establish focal point for GC aspects in M/0 Environment

    • Regional and national capacity building workshops

    • Establish education programs in environmental science

    • Incorporate GC concerns in curricula

    • Graduate course on GC science in region (AIT Bangkok?)

    • Enhance capacity for science-based GC studies

    • Support collab. research with developed country scientists

    • Encourage visiting scientist program for young scientists



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