Error Propagation from Radar Rainfall Nowcasting Fields to a Fully-Distributed Flood Forecasting Model. Enrique R. Vivoni 1 , Dara Entekhabi 2 and Ross N. Hoffman 3 1. Department of Earth and Environmental Science New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology
Enrique R. Vivoni1, Dara Entekhabi2 and Ross N. Hoffman3
1. Department of Earth and Environmental Science
New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology
2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Massachusetts Institute of Technology
3. Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc.
ERAD 2006 Conference, Barcelona, Spain
September 21, 2006
Motivation Fully-Distributed Flood Forecasting Model
Radar nowcasting and distributed watershed modeling can improve prediction of hydrologic processes across basin scales.
Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) using Radar Nowcasting
Nowcasting of Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimate (QPE)
Quantitative Flood Forecasts (QFFs) using Distributed Hydrologic Modeling
Combined Rainfall-Flood Forecasting Fully-Distributed Flood Forecasting Model
The distributed QPF and QFF models are combined using a method denoted as the Interpolation Forecast Mode.
Interpolation Forecast Mode
Vivoni et al. (2006)
STNM Radar Rainfall Nowcasts Fully-Distributed Flood Forecasting Model
Rainfall forecasting using scale-separation extrapolation allows for predictability in the space-time distribution of future rain.
Unfiltered Radar Rainfall
MIT Lincoln Lab
Van Horne et al. (2006)
Distributed Hydrologic Modeling Fully-Distributed Flood Forecasting Model
TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS) is a fully-distributed model of coupled hydrologic processes.
Surface-subsurface hydrologic processes over complex terrain.
Ivanov et al. (2004a,b)
Study Area Fully-Distributed Flood Forecasting Model
Radar rainfall over ABRFC used as forcing to hydrologic model operated over multiple stream gauges in the Baron Fork, OK.
Baron Fork 808 km Fully-Distributed Flood Forecasting Model2
Basin 12 0.8 km2
Basin Data and Interior Gauges
Soils and vegetation distribution used to parameterize tRIBS model. Fifteen gauges (range of A, tC) used for model flood forecasts.
Hydrometeorological Flood Events Fully-Distributed Flood Forecasting Model
Two major flood events: January 4-6, 1998 and October 5-6, 1998 varied in the basin rainfall and runoff response.
Multi-Gauge Model Calibration Fully-Distributed Flood Forecasting Model
Rainfall and Runoff Forecasts Fully-Distributed Flood Forecasting Model
Radar nowcasting QPFs and distributed QFFs are tested in reference to the radar QPE and its modeled hydrologic response.
Vivoni et al. (In Press)
Flood Forecast Skill Fully-Distributed Flood Forecasting Model
Flood forecast skill decreases as a function of lead time and increases with basin area for the two storm events.
Catchment Scale Dependence
Vivoni et al. (2006)
At 1-hr Lead Time
Radar Nowcast Error Propagation Fully-Distributed Flood Forecasting Model
Statistical measures of error propagation show that nowcasting errors are amplified in the flood forecast as lead time increases.
Mean Absolute Error Propagation
Slope = 1.3 for January
= 2.6 for October
Slope = 0.099 for January
= 0.105 for October
Error Dependence on Basin Scale Fully-Distributed Flood Forecasting Model
Propagation of radar nowcasting errors is reduced with increasing catchment scale (area) over range 0.8 to 800 km2.
1-hr Lead Time
2-hr Lead Time
Vivoni et al. (In Press)
Final Remarks Fully-Distributed Flood Forecasting Model
References Fully-Distributed Flood Forecasting Model
Ivanov, V.Y., Vivoni, E.R., Bras, R.L. and Entekhabi, D. 2004a. Preserving High-Resolution Surface and Rainfall Data in Operational-scale Basin Hydrology: A Fully-distributed Physically-based Approach. Journal of Hydrology. 298(1-4): 80-111.
Ivanov, V.Y., Vivoni, E.R., Bras, R. L. and Entekhabi, D. 2004b. Catchment Hydrologic Response with a Fully-distributed Triangulated Irregular Network Model. Water Resources Research. 40(11): W11102, 10.1029/2004WR003218.
Van Horne, M.P., Vivoni, E.R., Entekhabi, D., Hoffman, R.N. and Grassotti, C. 2006. Evaluating the effects of image filtering in short-term radar rainfall forecasting for hydrological applications. Meteorological Applications. 13(3): 289-303.
Vivoni, E.R., Entekhabi, D., Bras, R.L., Ivanov, V.Y., Van Horne, M.P., Grassotti, C. and Hoffman, R.N. 2006. Extending the Predictability of Hydrometeorological Flood Events using Radar Rainfall Nowcasting. Journal of Hydrometeorology. 7(4): 660-677.
Vivoni, E.R., Entekhabi, D. and Hoffman, R.N. 2006. Error Propagation from Radar Rainfall Nowcasting Fields to a Fully-Distributed Flood Forecasting Model. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.(In Press).