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Methodology

Methodology. Survey conducted October 1-7, 2009 Interviews conducted by telephone with 1,000 registered California voters likely to cast a ballot in the November 2010 Statewide General Election Margin of error for the full sample is +/- 3.1%

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Methodology

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  1. Methodology • Survey conducted October 1-7, 2009 • Interviews conducted by telephone with 1,000 registered California voters likely to cast a ballot in the November 2010 Statewide General Election • Margin of error for the full sample is +/- 3.1% • Results from previous Statewide Education Bond Measure Surveys are shown for comparison

  2. Right Direction/Wrong Track of California Over Time 2. Would you say that things in are generally headed in the right direction or do you feel that things are pretty seriously off on the wrong track?Source: FMM&A Statewide Surveys 2002-Present

  3. California Public Schools Job Performance 3. Overall, how would you rate the job California’s public schools are doing? Would you say they are doing an excellent job, a good job, only a fair job, or a poor job?

  4. Funding for education at all levels remains high. 4. Generally speaking, would you say that _____ has a great need for additional funding, some need, a little need or no real need for additional funding.

  5. The economy and state budget are the most urgent problems, but schools and education are also top concerns to voters. The effect of state budget cuts on local public schools Quality of public education in our local schools 7. Please tell me whether you think it is an extremely serious problem, a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, or not too serious a problem. Split Sample

  6. Although a majority continues to favor a statewide school bond, opposition has increased. In general would you favor or oppose a statewide bond measure to build, fix and repair public K through 12 schools, community colleges, and universities? Q5.

  7. California Statewide Education Bond Measure Ballot Label Statement THE KINDERGARTEN THROUGH TWELFTH GRADE, PUBLIC SCHOOL, COMMUNITY COLLEGE AND UNIVERSITY PUBLIC EDUCATION CLASSROOM AND SCHOOL FACILITIES BOND ACT: To provide needed funding to repair and upgrade classroom facilities and related teaching equipment as well as the acquisition, construction, and reconstruction for public K through 12 schools, public charter schools, community colleges, California State University and the University of California. Make essential health and safety repairs, improve earthquake safety and retrofitting, increase vocational educational opportunities in public schools and job training in community colleges, and the use of energy efficient technology to reduce energy costs. Funds will be targeted to areas of the greatest need and must be spent according to strict accountability measures, including annual independent financial and performance audits, and no money may be used for administrators’ salaries. These bonds may be used only for eligible projects. Should the state sell $7 billion in general obligation bonds? Fiscal Impact: State costs of about $12 billion to pay off both the principal ($7 billion) and interest ($5 billion) costs on the bonds. Payments of about $500 million per year.

  8. TOTALNO46% TOTALNO37% TOTALYES49% TOTALYES54% Initial support for a statewide school bond has softened, likely a result of voters’ economic concerns. December 2005$9 Billion Bond Measure October 2009$7 Billion Bond Measure 6. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this bond measure?

  9. Voters strongly favor several specific aspects of the bond measure. B. I am going to read you some of the provisions included in this statewide school bond measure. Please tell me whether you favor or oppose that specific of this bond measure provision.

  10. However, the bond’s fiscal impact statement does affect voter thinking. B. I am going to read you some of the provisions included in this statewide school bond measure. Please tell me whether you favor or oppose that specific of this bond measure provision.

  11. Despite the economy and state budget crisis, voters agree that funding repairs to schools remain a top priority. 8. I am going to read you a list of statements. I’d like you to tell me whether you generally agree or disagree. *Split Sample

  12. Most Important Uses of Funds Raised by a Statewide School Bond Measure Repairing drainage systems, leaking roofs, and decaying walls Increasing the number of career and vocational classrooms, and upgrading, labs and equipment to provide students with more opportunities to learn job skills Upgrading electrical systems and wiring for computer technology in public school Repairing aging and deteriorating classrooms and school buildings 11. Please tell me how important it is to you personally that money from this bond measure be issued to pay for each of the following in public schools grades K through twelve, community colleges, and state universities – is it extremely important, very important, somewhat important, or not too important? Split Sample

  13. Messages incorporating economic themes resonate strongest with voters. (Ranked by Much More Inclined to Vote For Bond Measure) 72% 68% 68% 13. Please tell me if it makes you more inclined to vote for this bond measure. *Split Sample

  14. TOTALNO46% TOTALNO38% TOTALYES57% TOTALYES49% Voter support for the bond measure increases significantly after the messaging. After Supportive Message Initial Vote 6/14. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this bond measure?

  15. Statements in Opposition to a $7 Billion Statewide Education Bond Measure (Ranked by Much More Inclined to Vote Against Bond Measure) 53% 49% 49% 45% 15. After hearing each statement, please tell me if it makes you more inclined to vote against this bond measure. *Split Sample

  16. Vote Progression on a $7 Billion Statewide Education Bond Measure 6/14/16. If the election were held today, would you vote yes in favor of it or no to oppose this bond measure?

  17. Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates Opinion Research & Public Policy Analysis Santa Monica, CA – Oakland, CA – Madison, WI – Mexico City For more information, contact: JOHN FAIRBANK 2425 Colorado Ave., Suite 180Santa Monica, CA 90404Phone (310) 828-1183 Fax (310) 453-6562 john@fmma.com

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