Project Overview and Scenario Process

1. Project Overview and Scenario Process Prof. Malcolm Eames 6 October 2011

3. Project Aims • To develop the knowledge and capability to overcome the separation between the "what" and "how" of urban scale retrofitting in order promote a managed socio-technical transition in built environment and urban infrastructure.

4. Vision • To deliver a 'step change' in current knowledge and capacity to underpin the transition to urban sustainability, by working with key stakeholders to illuminate challenging but realistic social & technological options and pathways for systemic retrofitting of two core UK city regions (Greater Manchester and Cardiff/SE Wales) by 2050

5. Step Change From… Incremental & near market technologies Niche experiments Piecemeal & fragmented programmes Limited capacity for learning To… Prospective tech. and disruptive innovation Systems change Integration across scales Top down & bottom up learning

6. Objectives • Explore and advance both theoretical and practical understandings of processes of systems innovation and transition in an urban context. • Analyse through case studies, modelling and international comparison, the technical and social processes underpinning such transitions. • Identify and characterise prospective disruptive technologies and systems innovations which will underpin a transition to sustainability in the built environment (over the period 2020-2030) • Articulate and appraise regionally specific visions and prospective pathways for urban scale retrofitting of the built environment. • To develop and test an integrated socio-technical support system that practically assists … improving effectiveness and efficiency of retrofitting processes.

7. What we intend to deliver • Improved societal understanding of long-term transitions (energy, water & waste) for sustainable urban retrofitting • Mobilise expectations around clearly articulated, pathways & scenarios for prospective disruptive technologies and systems innovations • Integrated urban scale modelling and evaluation tools to support improved decision-making and implementation • Practical knowledge exchange framework which cities can apply to drive forward systemic retrofitting

8. Project Structure Work Package 1 Urban Transitions Analysis Work Package 3 Urban Options, Visualisation and Pathways Analysis Work Package 4 Synthesis, Comparison & Knowledge Exchange Urban Foresight Panel Scenario Workshops Produces set of contextual ‘socio-technical’ scenarios for testing in WP3 Work Package 2 Urban Foresight Laboratory (2020-2050)

9. Urban Retrofit Scenarios An Outline Framework for Scenario Foresight and Appraisal

10. Foresight & Scenario Approaches

11. Methodology We will adopt a participatory backcasting approach in order to develop a realistic, internally coherent and transparent set of socio-technical transition scenarios for systemic urban retrofitting.

12. The Retrofit 2050 Scenarios Process

13. Urban ForesightPanel Your role in the process: • Broaden the range of disciplinary, professional & organisational knowledge • Contribute a high degree of creativity, critical thinking and challenge • Help to ensure the relevance, usefulness and usability of the outputs

14. Defining ‘Sustainable Urban Retrofit’ “…the directed alteration of the fabric, form or systems which comprise the built environment in order to improve energy, water and waste efficiencies.”

15. Urbanisation is a complex socio-technical process

16. Retrofit as an emergent process… Innovation Improvement Repair Maintenance

17. Retrofit ‘Regimes’: a Socio-Technical Perspective

18. www.retrofit2050.org.uk