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Guides.lib.Purdue.edu/ mcomputing. Definitions. Industry Sellers or providers. Market Customers. SEGMENT. CUSTOMER. CUSTOMER. CUSTOMER. CUSTOMER. CUSTOMER. CUSTOMER. MARKET. INDUSTRY. COMPETITOR. COMPETITOR. COMPETITOR. SECTOR. COMPETITOR. COMPETITOR.

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definitions
Definitions

Industry

  • Sellers or providers

Market

  • Customers

SEGMENT

CUSTOMER

CUSTOMER

CUSTOMER

CUSTOMER

CUSTOMER

CUSTOMER

MARKET

INDUSTRY

COMPETITOR

COMPETITOR

COMPETITOR

SECTOR

COMPETITOR

COMPETITOR

Adapted from Global Intelligence Alliance, 2012

definitions cont d
Definitions (cont’d)

Market Size

  • Total number of products or services that an industry sector is able to sell to a specific segment of the market
  • Within a certain timeframe (e.g., 1 year)
  • Volume (e.g., shipments, weight, single units)Value (e.g., dollars)

Adapted from Global Intelligence Alliance, 2012

new market or new segment
New Market or New Segment?

DIFFERENTIATED

PRODUCTS

COMMODITIES

So new to the world perhaps a market does not even exist yet.

Well-organized exchange and structured data likely available.

Adapted from Global Intelligence Alliance, 2012

segmentation
Segmentation

PRODUCT GROUP

Total Addressable Market

PRODUCT

PRODUCT

SEGMENT

SEGMENT

SEGMENT

SEGMENT

CUSTOMER

CUSTOMER

POPULATION GROUP

Adapted from Global Intelligence Alliance, 2012

markets total sales target
Markets: Total, Sales, Target

Total Addressable

Real World Constraints

Geography

Competition

Sales channels

S

Sales Addressable

Adapted from Blank& Dorf, 2012

markets total sales target1
Markets: Total, Sales, Target

Total Addressable

Priority Scenario

Most desirable

Most feasible

S

Sales Addressable

Target

Adapted from Blank& Dorf, 2012

framework three aspects to market sizing
Framework:Three Aspects to Market Sizing

SEGMENTS

ESTIMATION MODEL

DATA SOURCES

This slide deck has been made available under a creative commons license to reuse, remix, repurpose for non-commercial classroom uses, with source attribution.

what s an estimation model
What’s an Estimation Model?

Pre & post public market switch year

Birth cohorts

# of primary shots/year

Market size

(units)

Vaccination coverage

Toddler cohorts

=

x

x

Private channel %

Public channel %

+

# of booster shots/year

Child cohorts

Private channel %

Public channel %

Adolescent cohorts

Price per country for one primary dose

+

Market size

(value in USD)

Price per country for one booster dose

Market size

(units)

Price for one booster dose in DEFENSE scenario

+

Price for one primary dose in DEFENSE scenario

Adapted from Global Intelligence Alliance, 2012

two approaches
Two Approaches

Top-down

Bottom-up

Bottom-up estimates approach the true value from below, by summing up known supply data from market participants.

ProOften considered more conservative(accounts for capacity limitations of the industry).

ConUsually requires primary research, therefore often expensive to do.

Top-down estimates approach the true value from above, by starting with broad indicators which are narrowed down using assumptions.

ProOften a quicker and easier way to size a market

Con Tends to give too high estimates

Statistic

Assumption

Statistic

Assumption

Total market size

Data point

Data point

Segment total

Segment total

Total market size

Supplier 3

Supplier 4

Supplier 1

Supplier 2

Source: Global Intelligence Alliance, 2012

secondary market research types
Secondary Market Research Types
  • Existing Surveys
  • Market Research Reports
  • Industry Reports
  • Business News
  • Competitive Landscape
  • Government Sources

guides.lib.purdue.edu/mcomputing

secondary market research types1
Secondary Market Research Types
  • The primary elements involve:
  • understanding how the industry operates
  • what influences it internally: the market
  • what influences it externally: the consumers

guides.lib.purdue.edu/mcomputing

existing surveys
Existing Surveys
  • Information usually a year old
  • Taken from primary research and usually aggregated
  • Mostly consumer based

guides.lib.purdue.edu/mcomputing

existing surveys1
Existing Surveys
  • Census, Pew, Time-use studies
  • Bizminer
  • Mediamark Reporter
  • SimplyMap
  • Business Analyst Online ESRI

guides.lib.purdue.edu/mcomputing

triangulation
Triangulation

Estimate A

(e.g., primary research)

Ideally, all estimates are independent of each other

Estimate C

(e.g., based on

macroeconomic indicators)

Estimate B

(e.g., product complements wheremarket sizes are known)

Adapted from Global Intelligence Alliance, 2012