Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia

1. Livelihood-based Food Security Monitoring/Early Warning in Somalia  Nairobi, 26 September, 2011 Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia EUROPEAN COMMISSION

2. Food Security Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Field Staff Distribution and Locations • Somali Livelihoods, Food Security and Nutrition Information and Analysis Unit • Baseline Livelihoods Analysis • Seasonal & Emergency Assessments • Early Warning Monitoring • Nutrition Situation Analysis • Integrated Food Security Analysis • Applied Research • Information is Used to Inform: • Humanitarian Appeals & Response • Development Programming • Project Monitoring • Strategic Planning • Total staff number: 68 • Field Analysts: 30 • 14 Nutrition Analysts • 16 Food Security Analysts • NBI Based Staff: 38 • Food Security Team • Nutrition Team • Data Systems Team • Operation Support Team • Network of Field Data Enumerators: 91

3. Foundation of FSNAU Food Security and Nutrition analysis • Baseline description and understanding of livelihoods • Main Components: • Livelihood Assets & Strategies • Coping, Seasonality, Gender • Shocks & Hazards • Early Warning Indicators • Underlying Causes of Vulnerability • FSNAU Information Products: • Livelihood Zone Maps • Livelihood Baseline Data • Livelihood Zone Reports • Livelihood Profiles

4. Somali Livelihood Systems/Zones • A total of 33 rural livelihood zones : • Riverine (5); • Agropastoral (14); • Pastoral (14) • Total area under rural LZs: 634sq.km • Pastoral (74%); • Agropastoral (24%); • Riverine (2%) • Total rural population: 4.5mln people • Pastoral (48%); • Agropastoral (43%); • Riverine (9%) • Major concentrations of LZ populations: • Pastoral - North and Central (70%); • Agropastoral - South (88% ); • Riverine - South (100%)

5. Importance of Agriculture and Livestock in Somalia Food source of the poor: • Farming LZ: 60-70% comes from own production of cereals • Pastoral LZs: 15-20% (livestock products) • Farming LZ: 60-70% of crop sales, farm labour and zakat • Pastoral LZs: 70-80% from livestock/livestock product sales, zakat Income source of the poor:

6. Main Crops and Livestock Species Crop Areas Livestock areas

7. FSNAU Monitoring System Seasonal: assessments - Deyr and Gu (primary data) • Crop: Cereal (maize, sorghum) planting , harvesting, production; inputs and irrigation, cash crop production; cereal flow; stocks, post-harvest losses, etc. • Livestock: rainfall performance, pasture conditions, water conditions and prices, migration patterns, livestock conception, calving/kidding, off-take, debt level, food and income sources, etc. Monthly: • Rainfall Performance – satellite imagery (Spot and NOAA), rain-gauges (Fewsnet and SWALIM), ground-truthing • Cereal availability on the markets - primary • Livestock and cereals prices, daily labour wage rates, import commodity prices, etc. - primary • Cereal imports (cross-border and official through ports) - secondary • Relief food assistance statistics - secondary

8. Agricultural Seasonality

9. Pastoral Seasonality Normal selling peak: 70 days window between the end of Ramadan and the beginning of Hajj Distress selling peak: end of Jilaal

10. Crop Assessment District, Village questionnaires (KI, focus groups); Cereal flow (traders, grain trade brokers, store owners, etc)

11. Pastoral Assessment Key informant questionnaire on seasonal performance; Pastoral households on herd dynamics, food source, debts, etc.

12. Climate Gu 2011 Rainfall Performance July 2011 NDVI Absolute Difference from LTM Gu 2011 RFE percentage of Normal

13. Crop Performance (Gu 2011) Failed sorghum production. Tubaako, Baardera Gedo, July 2011 Failed crop. Malaaley, Jammame, L. Juba, FSNAU, July 2011 Average Maize Crop. Mandhere, Jowhar, M. Shabelle, FSNAU, July ‘11 Average Maize Crop. Mandhere, Jowhar, M. Shabelle, FSNAU, July ‘11

14. Cereal Availability (Gu 2011) Calendar year cereal harvests in southern Somalia (1996-2011) compared to average Cereal Balance for Somalia(Mt. Tons)

15. Food Access in Crop Livelihoods (Gu 2011) Terms of Trade: daily wage to cereals

16. Pastoral Assessments Rahmo Camp. Coastal LZ, Beyla town, Bari region, FSNAU, July 2011 Good body & pasture condition. Hawd Hargeisa, FSNAU July 2011 Livestock Carcass. Nugaal Valley, Sool, FSNAU, July 2011

17. LIVESTOCK Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production

18. Food Access in Pastoral Areas Trend Local Quality Goat Prices in Northern and Central regions Trend Local Quality Goat Prices in Southern Regions Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Maize, Sorghum to Goat Regional Trend in Terms of Trade: Rice to Goat

19. Livestock Exports Bossaso: Livestock Exports (Heads) and Export Quality Goat Prices (US$) Total Annual Livestock Exports Compared to 5 Year Average Berbera: Livestock Exports (Heads) and Export Quality Goat Prices (US$) * 2011 up to July

20. Oct-Dec seasonal rainfall forecast Dec. 2012 – Feb. 2012 Sept. – Nov. 2011 Oct. – Dec. 2011 Nov. 2011 – Jan. 2012 Source: ECMWF In the most-likely scenario the Oct-Dec rains are expected to start on time and overall season totals are expected to be average, though rains during the second half of the season are likely to be less favorable. The consensus-based climate outlook concluded on the 29th Forum of Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook (1-3 Sep. ’11) predicts near normal rainfall with a slight tendency to above normal in southern regions; near normal to below normal in Central and North, apart from Awdal region (near to above normal).

21. Likely Price Movement in Southern Somalia (Sep-Dec 2011) Staple cereal prices and projections - Baidoa Staple cereal prices and projections - Qorioley

22. Food Security Outcomes Food Security Outcomes (Aug – Sep ’11) Projected Food Security Outcomes (Oct-Dec ’11)

23. Thank You