food security and nutrition analysis unit somalia l.
Download
Skip this Video
Loading SlideShow in 5 Seconds..
Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia PowerPoint Presentation
Download Presentation
Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 32

Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 113 Views
  • Uploaded on

Post Gu 2011. Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia. 17 th August , 2011. Information for Better Livelihoods. Shabelle Regions. Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC. EUROPEAN COMMISSION. Gu 2011 Seasonal Assessment Coverage

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about 'Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia' - ilana


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
food security and nutrition analysis unit somalia

Post Gu 2011

Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia

17th August , 2011

Information for Better Livelihoods

Shabelle Regions

Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

slide2

Gu 2011 Seasonal Assessment Coverage

Field Access and Field Data Locations

  • Field Access and Coverage in Shabelle Regions:
  • Food Security Field analyst in Lower Shabelle travelled to all districts for assessment of crop, livestock and market conditions.
  • Food security Field analyst Middle Shabelle covered rural areas of Balad, Jowhar, Cadale and Aden Yabal districts.
main livelihood groups sources of food and income
Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income

Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income:

  • Riverine livelihood:
    • Primary sources of income of poor: sale of crops, agricultural labour, and self employment.
    • Primary food sources of poor: Own crop and purchase.
    • Primary livelihood asset of poor: Agriculture land
  • Agropastoral Livelihoods (Agropastoral Maize/cattle and Agropastoral Sorghum/cattle)
    • Agropastoral Maize/Cattle. Primary sources of income of poor: crop sale, agricultural labour, livestock and livestock product sales, self-employment (fodder sales, firewood, construction materials, etc); main sources of food of poor: own production(maize) and purchase.
    • Agropastoral Sorghum/Cattle. Primary sources of income of poor: crop sale, agricultural labour, livestock and livestock product sales, self-employment (fodder sales, firewood, construction materials, etc); main sources of food : own production(Sorghum) and purchase.
  • Pastoral Livelihoods (Southern Inland Pastoral and South east Pastoralists)
    • Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products
    • Primary sources of food of poor: purchase
    • Primary livelihood asset of poor: Camel, Sh/goat (SIP), cattle (SEP),
climate performance of the gu 2011 rainfall
Climate Performance of the Gu 2011 Rainfall
  • Overall statement: Performance of Gu rains was poor in all livelihoods.
  • Start of the season: started late, in 3rd dekad of April, in most livelihoods of the Shabelle regions and ended in 3rd of May 2011.
  • Temporal and spatial distribution: localized and poor distribution with low intensity.
  • Satellite imagery indicate cumulative rainfall(April-May) of 0-20% of normal in most areas of Shabelle regions.
  • Certain area in Lower shabelle (South of Brava & Wanleweyn) indicate 20-40% of normal
  • Localized areas of Middle Shabelle bordering with Hiran indicate 120-140% of normal.
  • Hagaa Rains: Along coastal areas of main Lower Shabelle (Baraawe, Sablaale, Kurtunwarey, Marka, Qoryoley and Afgoye) average Hagaa started in late July 2011

Gu 2011 RFE percent from normal (long-term mean)

slide5

Climate

Vegetation Conditions

slide6

Civil Insecurity

  • Civil Security Situation:
    • High political tension among TFG and religious groups in Mogadishu affected Shabelle valley
    • Increasing threats and limited humanitarian space
    • The development of security situation of Shabelle valley is uncertain
  • Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition:
    • New IDP camp in km 50 managed by Al-Shabab
    • Displaced people in the corridor between Mogadishu and Balad as well as Mogadishu and Afgoye
    • Market disruption mainly in the districts surrounding Mogadishu
    • Restriction of humanitarian intervention - negative impact on access to food and basic services (IDPs health posts and feeding centers)
slide7

Agriculture

Gu 2011 Crop Production Estimates

agriculture cereal production trends in middle shabelle

AgricultureCereal Production Trends in Middle Shabelle

Gu 11 Cereal Production Trends

(1995 – 2011)

Annual Cereal Production Trends

(1995 – 2011)

slide9

AgricultureCereal Production Trends in Lower Shabelle

Gu 11 Cereal Production Trends

(1995 – 2011)

Annual Cereal Production Trends

(1995 – 2011)

slide11

Agriculture

Regional Contribution of Gu 2011 Cereal Production in Southern Somalia

slide12

Agriculture

Gu 2011 Cash Crop Production Estimates

slide14

Agriculture

Gu 2011 Assessment Photos

Good Maize Crop. Mandhere, Jowhar, M. Shabelle, FSNAU, July, 2011

Good Maize Performance. Idow gudow K/warey, Lower Shabelle, FSNAU, July, 2011

Poor Maize Crop. Malayley,Qorioley,Lower Shabelle, FSNAU, July, 2011

Good Rice Crop. Barey, Jowhar, M. Shabelle, FSNAU, July, 2011

slide15

Agriculture

  • Gu 2011Local Cereal Flow:
  • Shabelle regions supply limited maize to Banadir (Mogadishu), south Galgadud (El Dheer) and Hiran.
  • Middle Shabelle supplies some amount of sorghum to Mogadishu.
  • Lower Shabelle gets limited amount of sorghum from Bay.
slide16

Agriculture

Regional Trends in Cereal Prices Shabelle regions

Trends in Maize Prices:

(Jowhar)

  • Factors influencing maize prices:
  • Poor maize crop production in all livelihoods. It is observed a decreasing trend of maize prices between June and July 2011 due to supply from the current Gu harvest.
  • Low maize supply
  • High demand for maize due to crop production failure in southern Somalia

Trends in Maize Prices:

(Merka, Afgoye and Qorioley)

slide17

Agriculture

Labour Rates & Availability

Middle Shabelle (Jowhar)

  • Factors Influencing Wage Labour Availability:
  • Stable wage rates in M. Shabelle due to on-going cash-crop activities in the riverine
  • Low agricultural activities during Gu season due to poor seasonal performance
  • Low labour demand
  • Increase of labour wages in Lower Shabelle in July due to Gu harvest and Hagaa planting
  • Civil insecurity

Lower Shabelle

slide18

Agriculture

Regional Trends in Terms of Trade

Shabelle

Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Labor to Maize – M. Shabelle – Jowhar market

(5 kg/ daily wage rate in Jul ‘11 vs 7kg in Jul’10)

  • Factor Affecting ToT decline:
  • Significant increase in Maize prices

Regional Trends in Terms of Trade: Labor to Maize – L. Shabelle – Afgoye, Merka and Qoryoley markets

(4 kg/ daily wage rate in Jul ‘11 vs 8kg in Jul’10)

slide19

Livestock

Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration in Gu 2011

  • Water availability is poor to average in most agropastoral livelihoods of the two regions
  • Average pasture condition in riverine and Wanlaweyn. Currently, coastal areas of Lower Shabelle have average pasture condition as a result of on-going Hagaa rains. However, poor pasture in key pastoral and other agropastoral areas of Shabelle regions.
  • Average body condition for camel and poor for sheep/goats and cattle
  • Normal livestock migration for both regions
  • Average milk production for camel and slight decline of milk prices yet higher than in the last year
regional trends in local goat prices lower shabelle
Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices: Lower Shabelle

Livestock

Trends in Goat Prices and Terms of Trade - L.Shabelle

  • Factors Influencing Local Goat prices:
  • High supply of livestock into markets
  • Poor livestock body condition

Regional Trends in Local Goat Prices: Middle Shabelle

slide22

Livestock

Trends in Terms of Trade – Shabelle Regions

Regional Trends in Livestock Prices and Terms of Trade: Lower Shabelle (46 kg/head in Jul ‘11 vs 138 kg/head in Jul ‘10)

  • Factors Influencing TOT (goat to red sorghum):
  • High cereal prices
  • Decreased livestock prices due to poor body condition and increased supply on markets.

Regional Trends in Livestock Prices and Terms of Trade Middle Shabelle (57 kg/head in Jul ‘11 vs 115 kg/head in Jul ’10)

slide23

Livestock

Gu 2011 Assessment Photos – Shabelle regions

Mixed Livestock Body Condition

Poor Cattle Body Condition. Jowhar, Middle Shabelle, FSNAU, July 2011.

Poor Cattle Body Condition. Kurtunwarey, Lower Shabelle, FSNAU, July 2011.

Poor Cattle Body Condition. Cadale, Middle Shabelle, FSNAU, July 2011

slide24

Markets

Trends in Imported Commodity Prices

  • Factors Affecting Commercial Import Price increase (last six months)
  • Poor crop production and shifting to imported cereals
  • Increased fuel prices
  • Increased prices on international markets
  • Reduced number of vessels due to piracy threat
  • Persistent fighting in Mogadishu
  • Disruption of main distribution markets in Mogadishu following the conflict.
slide26

Shabelle

Nutrition Situation Estimates

Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2011

Gu (April-July) Median Estimates of Nutrition Situation (2008-2010)

  • Aggravating factors:
    • Limited food production and high price of food resulting from the drought
    • Increased population displacements
    • Limited humanitarian space for interventions
    • Outbreaks of diarrhoea, cholera, measles and whooping cough reported in the region
    • Very limited access to health centers in the area
  • Mitigating factor:
    • Access to humanitarian interventions in Mogadishu
    • Social support
shabelle summary progression of rural ipc situation
SHABELLESummary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation

MAP 1: IPC, April 2011

Key IPC Reference Outcomes

Urban Population:

Middle Shabelle:100% Pand 25% of Middle HE; 75% Middle AFLC

Lower Shabelle:100% P and 50% of Middle HE; 50% Middle AFLC

Rural Population

Middle Shabelle

  • Riverine (50% P Famine; 50% P HE and 100%M HE)
  • Southern Agropastoral (100% P- Famine; 100%M-HE);
  • Cowpea (50% P Famine; 50% P - HE and 100% M – HE); Southern Inland Pastoral (100% P-HE; 50%M-AFLC)
  • Coastal (50%P Famine; 50%P-HE and 100% M HE)

Lower Shabelle

  • Riverine (100% P Famine; 50%M HE; 50% M AFLC M);
  • Southern Agropastoral (Wanlaweyne 100% P in HE; 50%M AFLC; the rest of the districts are 100% P in Famine; 100% M HE);
  • Southeast Pastoral (100% P - Famine; 100% M- HE);
  • Coastal (100% P Famine; 50% M-HE and 50% M AFLC)
  • Southern Inland Pastoral (100% P Famine; 50% M HE and 50% M AFLC)

Acute malnutrition: Very Critical and likely to deteriorate

Food Access: Mixed with population in famine facing extreme entitlement gap; much below 2,100 kcal ppp day ; in HE face severe entitlement gap; unable to meet 2,100 kcal ppp day, while those in AFLC lack of entitlement; 2,100 kcal ppp day via asset stripping

Water Access: Population in famine (< 4 litresppp day -human usage only); HE (< 7.5 litresppp day -human usage only); AFLC 7.5-15 litresppp day, accessed via asset stripping

Destitution/Displacement: Famine (large scale, concentrated); HE (concentrated; increasing); AFLC (emerging; diffuse)

Coping: HE (“distress strategies”; CSI significantly > than reference). AFLC (“crisis strategies”; CSI > than reference; increasing)

Livelihood Assets: Famine (effectively complete loss; collapse); HE (near complete & irreversible depletion or loss of access); AFLC (accelerated and critical depletion or loss of access)

MAP 2: IPC, Gu 2011

shabelle main influencing factors for rural ipc situation
SHABELLEMain Influencing Factors for Rural IPC Situation

Aggravating Factors:

  • Poor crop production (L. Shabelle – 37% PWA; M. Shabelle – 22% PWA) resulting from poor Gu

rains in Somalia and upper river catchments, low river levels and poor irrigation infrastructure

(mainly in Middle Shabelle)

  • Lack of cereal stocks (poor and lower middle households) as a result of very low cereal

production in Lower Shabelle (Deyr 2010 and Gu 2011) and Middle Shabelle (since Gu 2008)

  • High influx of livestock from neighboring regions towards riverine areas exerting pressure on

the limited pasture resources (particularly L. Shabelle)

  • Deteriorated livestock (cattle) body condition and limited milk production
  • Declined cattle herd size in both regions
  • Increased food prices (local and imported commodities) due to low supply of local cereals
  • Decrease in livestock prices (30-40% since June ‘10)
  • High supply of labour in riverine areas leading to the decline in labour wage rates
  • Weak purchasing power: ToT maize and labour (7 to 3kg/wage); ToT goat and maize (135 to

55kg/head) and ToT cattle to maize (565 to 177kg/head)

  • Trade restrictions due to high political confrontation among opposing groups in the regions
  • Limited humanitarian space
  • High IDP concentration in Balad and Afgoye Corridor

Mitigation Factors:

  • Expected off-season maize production following Hagaa rains in Lower Shabelle to improve

local cereal availability

  • Agricultural labour opportunities from off-season planting in L. Shabelle and cash crop activities in

both regions.

  • Below average (75% of PWA) of sorghum production in main sorghum producing district

(Wanlaweyne) of Lower Shabelle

  • Cash crop production (sesame, cowpea, rice, citrus, vegetables, banana, etc.)
  • Improved access to Mogadishu (for labour and humanitarian aid)
  • Social support