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Influence of Landfall Variation on Hurricane Losses: A Study of Damage Normalization

Analyzing the impact of landfall variations on hurricane losses through damage normalization techniques. The study examines data from 1900-2005 to understand the influence of landfall location on normalized damages. Key insights from top storms like Wilma, Ivan, Katrina, and Rita are discussed. The research explores the role of landfall in long-term loss records and future steps for hurricane intensity predictions. FEMA's Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology and the ICAT Damage Estimator tool are referenced. This study helps improve understanding of hurricane damage factors and loss estimation models.

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Influence of Landfall Variation on Hurricane Losses: A Study of Damage Normalization

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  1. Damage Normalization and the Influence of Landfall Variation on Losses Kevin SharpMaster’s Geography – University of Colorado, 2009Bachelor’s Geography – University of Tennessee, 2007 nasa.gov

  2. “Direct impact” hurricane damage in the U.S. (1900-2005) (adjusted for inflation to 2005 $) (Pielke Jr. et al., 2008)

  3. D2005= Normalized damage in 2005 $ • Dy= damage in impact year • Iy= inflation adjustment • RWPCy= real wealth per capita adjustment • P2005/y= population adjustment Normalization by Pielke Jr. et al. (2008) Normalized damage per year (1900-2005) with 11-yr centered avg. (Pielke Jr. et al., 2008)

  4. ICAT Damage Estimator Demonstrationhttp://www.icatdamageestimator.com/

  5. The Influence of Landfall Variation on Tropical CycloneLosses in the US as Simulated by HAZUS • LINK TO THESIS (PDF) Master’s Research NHC

  6. Hazard Model • Load Model • Resistance Model • Damage Model • Loss Model HAZUS-MH Rita-L (Vickery et al., 2006)

  7. Research Methods Wilma • Top 10 storms by normalized damage – (1988-2009) • Storm parameters unchanged • 30-mile track shift • Hurricane eye diameter ≈ 20-40 miles • 39-mile NHC 12-hr forecast cone • Damage estimate differences Wilma-L

  8. Results 2004 Ivan Ivan-L

  9. Results 2005 Katrina

  10. Results 1992 Andrew

  11. Results 2008 Ike

  12. Results 2005 Rita

  13. Landfall location matters • Landfall location very influential in long-term record • Little skill in impact prediction Hurricane Frances Conclusions Further Steps • Intensity • Maximum • Rate of dissipation • Size • Overall • Wind field • Speed • Hurricane modification nasa.gov

  14. FEMA. (2007). Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology - Hurricane Model - User Manual. Federal Emergency Management Agency. • ICAT. (2009). ICAT -Damage Estimator. Retrieved June 26, 2009, from http://www.icatdamageestimator.com/faq#6q • Pielke Jr., R. A., Gratz, J., Landsea, C. W., Collins, D., Saunders, M. A., & Musulin, R. (2008). Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States: 1900--2005. Natural Hazards Rev., 9(1), 29-42. • Vickery, P. J., Lin, J., Skerlj, P. F., Twisdale, J.,Lawrence A., & Huang, K. (2006). HAZUS-MH Hurricane Model Methodology. I: Hurricane Hazard, Terrain, and Wind Load Modeling. Natural Hazards Review, 7(2), 82-93. • Vickery, P. J., Skerlj, P. F., Lin, J., Twisdale, J.,Lawrence A., Young, M. A., & Lavelle, F. M. (2006). HAZUS-MH Hurricane Model Methodology. II: Damage and Loss Estimation. Natural Hazards Review, 7(2), 94-103. References

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