2012 Homelessness Target. Modelling seminars - Dundee. Marion Gibbs and Duncan Gray. Background. 2012 target 2009 interim target Reached or exceeded by 14 LAs A further 5 LAs reached or exceeded it during one or more quarters
Modelling seminars - Dundee
Marion Gibbs and Duncan Gray
Extra budget required
Assessing councils’ capacity to meet 2012 homelessness commitment
To give a broad overview of model and set out key features/ assumptions.
To identify issues arising from use of model over past couple of years.
To discuss development/ future use/ variants.
Assist Ministers in their statutory duty to assess capacity of each council to meet the commitment.
Assist Ministers in working jointly with councils to assist all to ‘get into a better position’ to achieve 2012.
(a) Projects supply of lets to meet the needs of priority homeless for each year to 2015-16. [2012 and beyond.]
(b) Projects demand for lets for homeless under a range of assumptions.
(c) Projects number of LA/ LSVT; RSL; PRS lets taken by homeless in each year under a range of assumptions.
(d) Projects the number in temporary accommodation and the amount of time spent in temporary accommodation in each year.
LA/ LSVT Stock
Relets of existing stock
Temporary accommodation as outcome
Temporary accommodation awaiting let
Social lets available/ needed
Available LA/ LSVT Lets
Other destinations/ outcomes… e.g.
Returned to Previous Accommodation.
Moved in with friends/ relatives.
Made own arrangements.
Relets of existing stock
Available RSL Lets
Note:- The red boxes show the main outputs from the model
Projected supply of social lets comes from turnover of existing stock, new building demolitions including decants.
Separate projections for
Allows modelling of impact of moving to equal shares of lets to homeless.
Very simple set of assumptions:-
Estimated turnover of PRS from SHS and PRS registration sources.
Assume that PRS let would be suitable for no more than x% of homeless. [Currently 20%, can be varied.]
Assume that no more than y% of PRS lets would be suitable for homeless. [Currently 10%, can be varied.]
Numbers homeless and proportion in priority in base year (now 08-09).
Shape of profile to achieve 2012 [gradual v big-bang.]
Impact of prevention over projection period.
Impact of drop-outs:-
Maximum % of priority homeless who will need a permanent let.
Reduction in drop-out rates over projection period.
Detailed profile of stock, lets and homeless levels.
Identifies and incorporates all the key factors affecting balance between need and supply.
Sophisticated mathematical model providing a projection of volume of temporary accommodation needed.
Takes about 5 hours to run the model for all councils.
The Scottish Government Version doesn’t allow single council runs.
Can’t readily vary the profile of % homeless assessed as priority.
Can’t put restrictions on % of LA/ LSVT/ RSL lets to homeless.
Uses MATLAB so can’t be provided to councils.
Uses almost all the same inputs, taken directly from Waugh model inputs.
One model for each council.
Projects balance between need and supply under the given set of assumptions in each year to 2015.
Allows restrictions on % of lets to homeless.
Doesn’t project numbers in temporary accommodation.
Purpose of the SHIF Working Group.
Likely use of 2012 modelling.
Runs of Waugh and related models show – under the specific assumptions used - relative investment needed to ensure that no more than X% of social lets will be needed in 2013-14 for homeless
2013-14 is first full year after Dec 2012.
X% has generally been set at 60%.
Homeless has been based either on latest year or on a given % per year reduction due to prevention.
Projected stock and lets has been on set assumptions about:-
Turnover of existing LA/ RSL normal lettings stock.
Decants from non-viable stock.
Proportion of priority homeless not requiring a social let.
Standard assumptions about potential for use of PRS.
Councils with largest ‘shortfall’ in lets from Waugh model generally [but not exactly] are also councils with net affordable need in wider affordability assessments (e.g. Bramley).