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Some thoughts on the Scientific Assessment of GPS-RO for Climate

Some thoughts on the Scientific Assessment of GPS-RO for Climate. John Bates, NOAA/NCDC With lots of help… Participants in GPS-RO Workshop, invaluable summary from Dian Seidel, GRAS SAF, COSMIC scientists…. GPS-RO Climate Assessment.

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Some thoughts on the Scientific Assessment of GPS-RO for Climate

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  1. Some thoughts on the Scientific Assessment of GPS-RO for Climate John Bates, NOAA/NCDC With lots of help… Participants in GPS-RO Workshop, invaluable summary from Dian Seidel, GRAS SAF, COSMIC scientists…

  2. GPS-RO Climate Assessment “GPS-RO observations and derived products have some unique properties and potentials that are very appealing from a climate perspective” – consensus of NOAA ad hoc GPS-RO Workshop group • Error characterization – comprehensive and well-documented (e.g., Kursinski, 1997) • Low structural error – Structural uncertainty arises because different investigators make different choices for the methods they choose to retrieve geophysical parameters from raw data and/or how they tie together multiple observing platforms in a long time series – • Workshop comparisons of 4 groups show small spread in geophysical structural error. Time is needed to assess whether this also applies to minimizing multi-platform structural error (unknowns include electronics, spacecraft bus RFI, etc.) • Low structural error is a requirement for a benchmark SI-quality climate observation • Minimal ‘bias correction’ required for use in re-analysis

  3. GPS-RO Climate Assessment (cont) • High vertical resolution – occultation, the passage of a celestial body across a line between an observer and another celestial object, is similar to limb scanning • Can capture small, sharp changes in the vertical • …but also shares negatives such as long path etc. • High precision and accuracy in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere • This is where wet and dry air contribution to refractivity are highly separable • Nadir sounders do not resolve the tropopause well • ‘Canary in the coal mine’ – optimal fingerprint techniques applied to IPCC AR4 scenario suggest GPS-RO may be a very useful early detection observation

  4. Climate Scientific Maturity Assessment

  5. Moving Forward – GPS-RO Maturity • Technical Maturity – analog to NASA technical readiness level of hardware – moderate to high with some evolution continuing • Scientific Maturity – moderate due largely to short time series • Community Maturity – moderate due largely to short time series

  6. Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) Scientific Data Stewardship is a Systematic Approach to Observation, Production, and Preservation of Essential Climate Information • Characteristics of CDRs • A Model for CDR Maturity • Long-term Information Preservation

  7. Summary of SDS ActivitiesThe CDR Project Phase 1 • The White House Science Office requested NOAA and NASA to provide: • An analysis of possible mitigation options of the climate impacts of the NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification through 2026 • An assessment of the potential costs of these options • Primary goal: Ensure continuity of long-term climate records • NOAA and NASA analyzed the following options: • Remanifesting the climate sensors on NPOESS spacecraft • Placing sensors on currently planned non-NPOESS spacecraft • Developing new gap-filling climate satellite missions • Partnering opportunities • Key results: • President’s FY 2009 budget included $74M to mitigate the loss of climate sensors on NPOESS and to provide long term Climate Data records • Specifically targeted for most cost effective options for launching Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and Total Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS), as well as support for initial work on Climate Data Records – CDR Project

  8. NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) Project Science Support • Includes development, production, reprocessing, stewardship, and distribution • Assumes data from all NPOESS certified sensors and mitigation sensors / sources • Covers about 30 Climate Change Science Program essential climate variables • Includes a range of options bounded by a ‘proof of concept’ costing only for Fundamental CDRs (FCDRs) to a full production costing for all Thematic CDRs (TCDRs) and Climate Information Records (CIRs)

  9. CDR Project Organization

  10. CLARREO – NRC Decadal Survey NASA & NOAA Mission • Many U.S. Agencies have a share in climate observing requirements • The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) is one of the four missions recommended for earliest implementation by NASA and includes a major NOAA component

  11. CLARREO (cont) • CLARREO is a climate-focused mission that will become a key element of the climate observing system. • The foundation for CLARREO is the ability to produce irrefutable climate records through the use of exacting onboard traceability of the instrument accuracy. • Spectral reflected solar and emitted infrared radiances and GPSRO refractivities measured by CLARREO will be used to detect climate trends and to test, validate, and improve climate prediction models.

  12. CLARREO (cont) • The CLARREO imperative is to: • Initiate an unprecedented, high accuracy record of climate change that is tested, trusted and necessary to provide sound policy decisions. • Initiate a record of direct observables with the high accuracy and information content necessary to detect long term climate change trends and to test and systematically improve climate predictions. • Observe the SI traceable spectrally resolved radiance and atmospheric refractivity with the accuracy and sampling required to assess and predict the impact of changes. • The Decadal Survey recommends NOAA contribute to CLARREO by continuing the record of total Earth Radiation budget (CERES) and adding routine GPS-RO

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