Habitat Supply Modelling & MPB Moving from alpha to beta models Next Steps

1. Habitat Supply Modelling & MPB Moving from alpha to beta models Next Steps June 18, 2008

2. Phase I Completion Basic Tasks • Verification of Alpha Models with Peers • Subset of study areas • Data problems & gaps -> workarounds • Beta (peer reviewed) Models • Rerun Beta models on current conditions • Run sequence/per species (predecent -> consequent submodels – intra and inter-species) • Spatial analyses • Verification checks • Map Production & Delivery

3. Phase I completion (scenario=current situation)Steps & Timeline Product: beta maps for 13 spp (T0) $22,000-$25,000

4. Phase I Challenges • Verification – efficient solutions to Data gaps • Model simplification – improve model “accuracy” & execution speed • Per/scenario execution • Improvements to BBN linkage • Improvements in data-handling (Access -> postGRES?) • Generalized outputs – serve several needs • Documentation

5. Phase I/II Client Needs • NCC • Species • Spatial unit – 500 ha • Can use density or occurrence probability estimates • Projections of future (mgmt, climate assumption, disturbance assumption) • Defines suites of scenarios • Wilburforce • Spatial unit • MoE • Spatial unit – 1 ha • Prediction variable – probability of occurrence • scenarios

6. Phase II Next Steps • Select Subset of Species? (e.g., NCC focal species) • Design MPB scenarios • Disturbance & management parameters • SELES Model projections • Linkage of spatial time-series with HSM-beta models • Run multiple MPB Scenarios -> Beta model outputs • Select outputs for Wilburforce Analysis • Migrate select Beta models -> gamma models

7. Phase II Next Steps (2) • Priority & sequence • Approximate Cost • Responsibility • Milestones