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Moscow State University P.P.Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, RAS, Moscow. Ocean’s Role in the Stratosphere-Troposphere Interaction. Yulia A. Zyulyaeva. 1/17. 11-year solar cycle. Stratosphere. QBO. Polar Night Jet. Troposphere. Planetary Waves. 2/17. If zonal averages are taken.
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Moscow State UniversityP.P.Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, RAS, Moscow Ocean’s Role in the Stratosphere-Troposphere Interaction Yulia A. Zyulyaeva 1/17
11-year solar cycle Stratosphere QBO Polar Night Jet Troposphere Planetary Waves 2/17
If zonal averages are taken reduces to the Wind deceleration is found to be large in the neighborhood of large negative values of divergence1 As proposed by Eliassen and Palm (1961)1 Eliassen-Palm Flux – capturing the impact of planetary waves onto the mean flow As proposed by Plumb (1985)2 1) Eliassen, A. and E. Palm,1961: On the transfer of energy in stationary mountain waves. Geofys. Publ., No. 3, 1-232) Plumb, R.A., 1985: On the three-dimensional propagation of stationary waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 217-229 3/17
Used Data We analyze 49 Winter Seasons : November –March 1958/1959 – 2010/2011 • Monthly mean • From NCEP/NCAR Reanlaysis datasets • Geopotential heights, • Air temperature, • Wind • From Met Office Hadley Centre observations datasets • SST 4/17
3D Eliassen-Palm Flux at 30hPa December 1975 Before SSW (major event) in January 1977 December 1976 Arrows - horizontal component, contours - vertical x10-5 m2/s2 5/17
Climatology49-year mean z-component of the EP Flux (x10-5 m2/s2) March January December February Negative values 6/17
EPz -Flux and U-wind anomalies for 30hPaDecember – January 1 month lag PRECONDITIONS 1st EOF for Fz 43% 1st EOF for U30 46% PNJ Correlation -0,58 PC for U30with the opposite sign 7/17
EPz-Flux and U-wind anomalies U-wind 30hPa EPz 30hPa Correlation coefficient: PC of the 1st EOF of EP-flux (z-component) and PC of the 1st EOF of zonal wind at 30hPa • Karpetchko A., and G. Nikulin, Influence of early winter upward wave activity flux on midwinter circulationin the stratosphere and troposphere, J. Climate, 2004, vol. 17, pp. 4443-4452 • Holton, J.R., Mass, C, 1976. Stratospheric vacillation cycles, Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 33, 2218-2225 8/17
Correlation Coefficient between Fz (60N, 45W) and UWND at 30hPa January February 9/17
Scheme of the upward and downward propagation Zyulyaeva, Yu.A., Jadin, E.A., 2008. Analysis of three - dimensional Elliassen-Palm fluxes in the lower stratosphere, Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, in press 10/17
Scheme of the upward and downward propagation Zyulyaeva, Yu.A., Jadin, E.A., 2009. Analysis of three - dimensional Elliassen-Palm fluxes in the lower stratosphere, Russian Meteorology and Hydrology 11/17
Break of the “preconditions” -0,58 -0,57 -0,72 -0,26 PCs for the 1st EOF of EPz-Flux for December and U-wind for January 12/17
West (East)QBO > Strong (weak) PV inthe Arctic 1959-2007 1959-1979 1980-2000 Correlation Coefficient between QBO 30hPa (UWND 2.5N, 102.5E) and UWND 30hPa for period 1959 - 2007 (January - January) 95% - 0.24 Holton, J.R., Tan, H.C., 1980. The influence of the equatorial quasi - biennial oscillation on the global circulation at 50 mb, Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 37, 2200-2208. 13/17
1947 – 1976 “COOL PDO” 1977 – mid-1990’s “WARM PDO” 14/17
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation 1st EOF for SST PCs for the 1st EOF of SST 15/17
Relations between EPz-Flux and SST anomalies December - December 0,11 0,65 0,62 1st EOF for SST PCs for the 1st EOF of SST and Fz 1st EOF for Fz Evgeny A. Jadin, Ke Wei, Yulia A. Zyulyaeva, Wen Chen, Lin Wang, Stratospheric wave activity and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 72 (2010) 1163–1170 16/17
Conclusions (1) • 3D EP-Flux shows significant longitudinal asymmetry • Strong/weak penetration of planetary waves into the stratosphere in December precedes to the major SSW/Ex. Cold events in January • No significant trends of 3D EP-Fluxes were indicated during the wintertime 1958-2007 (not shown) 17/17
Conclusions (2) • The mechanism connected with the thermal excitation of planetary waves by the SST anomalies in the North Pacific in the early winter and a downward propagation in the late winter in the North Atlantic region (“stratospheric bridge”) is proposed • Are there relations between the SSTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic and the stratospheric bridge in late winter or the 11-year solar cycle modulates the downward wave signal in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere? 17/17
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
K. Labitzke 1982, On the Interannual Variability of the Middle Stratosphere during the Northern Winters
Relations between z-component of EP-Fluxand zonal wind anomalies in December 1st EOF for Fz 51% 1st EOF for Fz 62% Correlation 0,13
Relations between z-component of EP-Fluxand zonal wind anomalies December - January 1st EOF for Fz 51% 1st EOF for U30 46% -0,57 -0,72 -0,31 Correlation -0,58
1st EOF for z-component of the EP-Flux January (1959-2007) 30.8% December (1958-2006) 43.3% March (1959-2007) 49.0% February (1959-2007) 38.0%
PC of 1st EOF for z-component of the EP-Flux No Significant Trends! 30.8%for January (1959-2007) 43.3% for December (1958-2006) 2005 49.0%for March (1959-2007) 38.0% for February (1959-2007) 4) Hu, Y., and K.K. Tung, 2003: Possible ozone-induced long-term changes in planetary wave activity in late winter. J. Climate, 16, 3027-3038.
Composites of deviation from 49-year mean Z-component of the EP Flux for Warm Vortex Years(x10-5 m2/s2) January February
Composites of deviation from 49-year mean Z-component of the EP Flux for Cold Vortex Years(x10-5 m2/s2) January February
Composites of deviation from 49-year mean Z-component of the EP Flux (x10-5 m2/s2) December January 1959,1967,1969,1970,1984,1986,2001 1966,1973,1979,1980,1984,1989,1999,2001 3) Charlton, A.J. and L.M. Polvani, 2007: A new look at stratospheric sudden warmings. Part I: Climatology and modeling benchmarks. JClimate, 20, 449-469.
1st , 2nd EOF for z-component of the EP-Flux January 1959-2004 36.9% 18.5%
EOF for z-component of the EP-Flux January 1959-2004 18.5% 23.0% Level 700hPa Level 30hPa
(x10-7m/s2) Stratospheric Sudden Warmings Wind deceleration is found to be large in the neighborhood of large negative values of divergence1 January 1976 January 1977 3) Andrews, D.G., J.R. Holton and C.B. Leovy, 1987: Middle Atmosphere Dynamics. Academic Press, 489 pp.
Relations between z-component of EP-Fluxand zonal wind anomalies U30 Negative Fz PC of the 1stEOF 1959 - 2004 Positive Correlation between PC of the 1st EOF of EP-flux (z-component) and PC of the 1st EOF of zonal wind anomalies at 30hPa
Relations between divergence of the EP-Fluxand zonal wind anomalies U30 Correlation between PC of the 1st EOF of the divergence of EP-flux and PC of the 1st EOF of zonal wind anomalies at 30hPa