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GTAP-Energy: A note

GTAP-Energy: A note. Christine Lasco and Andy Mold. World Marketed Energy Use: OECD and Non-OECD, 1980-2030. Source: IEO, 2006. Possible problems with Burniaux and Troung (2002)…. . Paper uses 1997 GTAP to simulate impact of emissions cuts Burniau and Troung use 1994 growth projections

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GTAP-Energy: A note

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  1. GTAP-Energy: A note Christine Lasco and Andy Mold

  2. World Marketed Energy Use: OECD and Non-OECD, 1980-2030 Source: IEO, 2006

  3. Possible problems with Burniaux and Troung (2002)…. • Paper uses 1997 GTAP to simulate impact of emissions cuts • Burniau and Troung use 1994 growth projections • Subsequently, parts of the world economy has experienced phenomenal growth, especially in Asia (China, India) • Thus need to update experiment?

  4. Growth Rates Predicted….

  5. Alternative Scenario…. • Model incorporates shock to basic E-GTAP model, augmenting factors of production and population on a regional basis using more recent data. • Base data subsequently used to re-rerun the basic Burniaux and Troung (2002), having recalculated the necessary cuts in CO2 required to meet the Kyoto commitments.

  6. Welfare Decomposition of implementing Kyoto no trading Source: Burniau and Troung, 2002 and own elaboration

  7. Welfare decomposition…

  8. Explanations?... • Growth of China/India means a greater effort needs to be made by industrialised countries in order to attain the Kyoto objectives • Higher tax rates on fuel in RoA1 countries means that cost of achieving objectives is correspondingly higher • Terms of trade impact positive for EU and US, but sharply negative for energy exporters.

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