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Chao FANG Supervisors: J.C. BOCQUET, Franck MARLE Project Management Research Group

Analysis of Risk Network Behavior in Project Management Based on Simulation and Mathematical Modeling. Chao FANG Supervisors: J.C. BOCQUET, Franck MARLE Project Management Research Group LGI, Ecole Centrale Paris. Outline. Background Risk Interaction Network Model Simulation Analysis

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Chao FANG Supervisors: J.C. BOCQUET, Franck MARLE Project Management Research Group

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  1. Analysis of Risk Network Behavior in Project Management Based on Simulation and MathematicalModeling Chao FANG Supervisors: J.C. BOCQUET,Franck MARLE Project Management Research Group LGI, Ecole Centrale Paris

  2. Outline • Background • Risk Interaction Network Model • Simulation Analysis • Summary & Future Work

  3. Outline • Background • Risk Interaction Network Model • Simulation Analysis • Summary & Future Work

  4. Importance of Project Risk Management • Society is more than ever exposed and averse to risks • Project management is basically a risky activity: • targets and constraints • uncertainty and change • complex with interrelated parameters

  5. Complexity of Project and Risks • The growing complexity of project induces the complexly interacted risk network.

  6. Current Methodologies and Problems • Most classical methods of PRM independently analyze individual risks

  7. Current Methodologies and Problems • Tree-structure methods still focus on single risk • Bayesian Belief Network • Not practical for large network • Not adapt to properties of risk interactions • Could not model “loop”

  8. Outline • Background • Risk Interaction Network Model • Simulation Analysis • Summary & Future Work

  9. Methodologies in Modeling Process • Identification of interactions • Expertise • DSM (Design Structure Matrix) • Evaluation of interactions • Expertise • Previous experience • Modeling of risk network • By simulation • By mathematical algorithm

  10. Original Project Risk List (case study)

  11. Risk Interaction Matrix (case study)

  12. Risk Interaction Network (case study)

  13. Outline • Background • Risk Interaction Network Model • Simulation Analysis • Summary & Future Work

  14. Simulation Model in ARENA (case study)

  15. Simulation Results (case study) • Some improbable risks have significant raising ratio • Some underestimated risks escalate into higher level

  16. Outline • Background • Risk Interaction Network Model • Simulation Analysis • Summary & Future Work

  17. Summary • Investigation of limits in literature • Risk interaction network model • Case study on a real project • Simulation results compared with classical methods • Underestimation of some risks with classical analysis due to the false independence assumption

  18. Future Work • Develop a mathematical model in order to approximate the behavior of the network (to be compared with simulation) • Analyze consequence of complex scenarios like “loop” • Tramway infrastructure project case study • More parameters like time and cost of risks will be included and calculated • Potential risk response and control solution

  19. Merci de votre attention!

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