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Drought Management Using MIMOSE. Michael Möhring Institute for Computer Applications in the Social Sciences 8./9. November, Oxford, GB. Preliminary Remarks. Straightforward attempt to design and implement the given drought management model

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drought management using mimose

Drought ManagementUsing MIMOSE

Michael Möhring

Institute for Computer Applications in the Social Sciences

8./9. November, Oxford, GB

preliminary remarks
Preliminary Remarks
  • Straightforward attempt to design and implement the
  • given drought management model
  • (based on Cindy‘s papers and an extensive email traffic
  • between her and me)
  • Explicit representation of all model entities by model
  • objects in MIMOSE (e.g. EA/WC, options)
  • Basic Process Flow:
    • Calculate the monthly storage by using different
    • sources (e.g. supply/demand, options
    • Evaluate trigger and rules in EA/WC by using the
    • actual water information
    • Determine the amount of water coming from the
    • options, which contribute to the monthly storage

Drought Management 8./9. November 2001 (c) Michael Möhring

model structure in mimose
Model Structure in MIMOSE

WATER

EA

WC

EA1

WC1

NEG1

WC2

NEG2

WC3

NEG3

Drought Management 8./9. November 2001 (c) Michael Möhring

model object water
Model Object: WATER

WATER

Storage :real

:= DBalance + WcBalance + OptEa1.Outcome + OptWc1.Outcome;

DBalance :real

:= Storage_1 + ResSupply[count]

- ResDem[count];

WcBalance :real

:= 0

if(WcBalance0)<= 0 else

WcBalance0;WcBalance0 :real

:= WcSupply[count] + DroughtOn[count] - WcDemand[count];

Drought Management 8./9. November 2001 (c) Michael Möhring

model object ea
Model Object: EA

EA  WC

EaDwt: int

:= 1 if WSt.Storage_1 <= EADWT else 0;EaDt : int

:= 1 if WSt.Storage_1 <= EADT else 0;Rea1 :int

:= 1 if EaDwt &&

(((count >= 1) && (count <= 3))

|| ((count >= 8) && (count <= 12)))

else 0;Rea2 :int

:= 1 if EaDwt &&

((count >= 4) && (count <= 7))

else 0;

Rea3 :int

:= 1 if EaDt else 0;

Drought Management 8./9. November 2001 (c) Michael Möhring

model object ea1
Model Object: EA1

EA1  WC1/NEG1/...

Outcome : int := (Impact - EffRed) if (Ea.Rea1 || Ea.Rea2) &&

(Wc.Rwc1 || Wc.Rwc2) else Impact;Count : int := (Count_1 + 1)

if (Ea.Rea1 || Ea.Rea2) else Count_1;

Impact : int := case Count of 0 : 0; 1 : ImpInit; default : Impact_1 + Incr; end;ImpInit : int;ImpMax : int;Incr : int;...

Drought Management 8./9. November 2001 (c) Michael Möhring

external constants
External Constants

EA drought warning trigger  EA

EADWT := 3000;

EA drought trigger  EAEADT := 1000;

WC drought warning trigger  WC

WCDWT := 3000;

WC drought trigger  WC

WCDT := 1000;

Efficieny Reduction  EA/WC

EffRed := 10;

Drought Management 8./9. November 2001 (c) Michael Möhring

state of implementation
State of Implementation
  • Representation of the static model structure according to
  • the given descriptions (e.g. Storage, EA/WC, rules,
  • options)
  • Reproduction of the given simulation results (without
  • contributions coming the „negotiation“ in step 8,9, and 10)
  •  testing the basic process flow
  •  testing the interplay between the first basic rules and the
  • corresponding options
  • Concrete ideas for implementing the negotiation process
  • described so far (e.g.
    • determination of the potential set of options
    • reduction of the option set by using rules R4 to R8
  • ( more information and discussion needed)

Drought Management 8./9. November 2001 (c) Michael Möhring

open questions
Open Questions
  • Negotiation Process
  •  direct (e.g. exchanging informations about appropriate
  • options)
  •  indirect (e.g. selecting the same NEG option)
  • Rules
  •  Completeness
  •  Hierarchical structure (e.g.)
      • R1, R2, R3, R9: Basic Rules
      • R4-R8: Subrules to reduce the set of options
      • generated by applying R3
  •  R4 – R8
      • Validity (e.g. is cost always low priority (R8))
      • Priority
  • ...

Drought Management 8./9. November 2001 (c) Michael Möhring