Economic Implications of SLR to on Seaports and Coastal Cities.

1. Economic Implications of SLR to on Seaports and Coastal Cities. Review of literature on SLR and its implications on the economics of seaports and coastal cities. Damilola Sobo

2. Abstract In evaluating the impact of sea level rise on sea ports and coastal cities, this literature review integrates assessments of the economic importance of sea ports with expectations of regional sea level rises and associated storm surges. The analysis finds that (1) the port cities most threatened by sea level rise are located in deltaic regions, portal cities across the north and east coast of North America and small islands in the Caribbean, Indian and Pacific oceans (2) areas most vulnerable (in terms of mitigation and engagement strategies) to rising sea levels are in the south Mediterranean, Africa, South and South-east Asian countries and small island developing countries (SIDC). This review contributes to the body of knowledge and work being undertaken by the Stanford University Project in Engineering Response to Sea Level Rise (SUPERSLR).

3. Methodology in Assessing Economic Impact • Assessing city/regional exposure to SLR • Assessing exposure of port assets • Assessing Vulnerability • Assessing Indirect Impact of Port

4. The OECD Ranking/Selection Process

5. Literature Review analysis process

6. Assessing city/regional exposure to SLR • Expected regional sea level rise. Higher rates of SLR expected in • Deltaic regions • West and East Coasts of North America • Caribbean Community (CARICOM) countries • Small Island Countries 2. Associated changes that reinforce SLR and economically impact port. These include flooding, erosion, increased precipitation and rain

7. Assessing Exposure of Port Assets and Infrastructure Graph shows the logarithmic trend of association between SLR and direct losses from infrastructure. Asian portal cities have the most exposed assets and infrastructure. 38% of global portal cities are located in Asia. Exposed assets in North America is placed at $7 trillion (UNEP)

8. Assessing vulnerability • Sensitivity: refers the ability of SLR to severely impact the short and long term operations of the ports and a substantial decrease to GDP of the region • Adaptation potential refers to the ability and speed of the port authorities in responding to the direct physical changes that SLR might have on operations (SUPERSLR Port Assessment) • Small island developing countries (SIDS), least developed countries (LDCs) and landlocked developing countries (LLDCs) are most vulnerable to changes in maritime transport services according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD report)

9. Assessing indirect port activities. Change in demand of transport services Direct Port support sectors e.g. electricity and water supply, port service providers. Symbiotic economy and job market present from the presence and operations of the port. (Graph across shows a case study of Copenhagen port and the estimated losses frm 2m SLR)

10. ANALYSIS OF CURRENT SUPERSLR DATA Port Employment Port Revenue (Money Moving throug ports) • US, Germany and the Netherlands have high number port employees. • Benin Republic and Malaysia however are more vulnerable to economic lose since there are less developed social benefits/welfare systems • US, Japan and Netherlands have largest port economies. • Aruba and Maldives are small island countries and are more vulnerable.

11. Conclusion • The qualitative and generic nature of the analysis of these reports do not give much perspectives on the impact of individual ports to the local, regional and national setting • It would be helpful to come up with a metric or model that could properly capture the economic impact of ports in order to efficiently evaluate the impact of SLR on the port in question. • It is necessary to adapt to SLR in all regions. However the economic assessment impact gives policy makers a good idea of the priority areas.