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Vulnerability to climate change and natural disasters of coastal cities of North Africa

Vulnerability to climate change and natural disasters of coastal cities of North Africa. Osama Hamad, The World Bank, 2010. Main urban and climate issues. MENA coastal cities home to over 60m, 100m by 2030, or 1/3 of all urban pop.

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Vulnerability to climate change and natural disasters of coastal cities of North Africa

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  1. Vulnerability to climate change and natural disasters of coastal cities of North Africa Osama Hamad, The World Bank, 2010

  2. Main urban and climate issues • MENA coastal cities home to over 60m, 100m by 2030, or 1/3 of all urban pop. • Region is second most affected by SLR, with high water stress already present • Increasing temperatures (2C), decreasing precipitation and runoff expected by 2030 • Coastal cities are among the largest and most vulnerable urban agglomerations

  3. Alexandria, Casablanca, Tunis • 3-year study to a) assess vulnerability to climate • change and natural disasters; and b) prepare • adaptation action plans for greater urban resilience • $1m co-financed by NTF-PSI for the three cities, • by TFESSD for Bouregreg in Morocco, by GFDRR • for DRM, and by the WB’s administrative budget

  4. June 2008: Project WB approval, funding June 2009: start of technical consultancy June 2010: vulnerability assessments completed Dec. 2010: action plans to be completed June 2011: Final WB report to be published Central and local Governments Meteo institutes, utility companies, others Egis BCEOM consulting consortium Arab Academy CMI Marseille European Space Agency Milestones Stakeholders

  5. Threat 1. SLR, Coastal Erosion and Storm Surges • Manifest signs in all cities of SLR, erosion • Uncertainty as to precise future SLR • Loss of beach-front threatening economy, neighborhoods • Increasing episodes of storm surges

  6. Threat 2: Urban Flooding • Increasing frequency, intensity of urban floods in some cities • Huge losses to urban economies, lives • Drainage systems overwhelmed • Lethal combination with storm surges

  7. Threat 3: Water scarcity • Decreasing rainfall causing watersheds to reduce supply • Increasing urban consumer demand • Water-tables threatened by salinization, SLR • Nile flow at risk of profound mid-term changes

  8. Threat 4: Ambient temperature • Elevated impacts on public health via heat waves mortality • Increasing ambient temperatures causing intense heat island • Worsening air pollution

  9. Threat 5: Earthquakes, Tsunamis • Devastating episodes during last decade in Morocco and Tunisia • All cities located in earthquake-prone areas • Record of past tsunamis: Casablanca and Alexandria • Probabilistic risk assessment required

  10. Adaptation 1: Urban Planning • All cities populations to expand by 2030: * Tunis by 40%, * Casablanca by 60% * Alexandria by 70% • Areas at high risk will be identified, avoided • Adaptation actions to be proposed for other areas

  11. Adaptation 2: Infrastructure • Coastal marine defenses • Harbor structures and logistics platforms • Waste water treatment, power plants • Drainage systems and pumping stations • Built environment retrofitting

  12. Adaptation 3: Preparedness • Early warning systems • Civil protection readiness • Emergency response and evacuation plans • Public information and awareness • Institutional coordination

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