Training and Research Coordination Group (TRCG) Time for a Strategic Re-think?

1. Training and ResearchCoordination Group(TRCG)Time for a Strategic Re-think? Edwin S.T. Lai TRCG Chair Hong Kong Observatory Jeju, Republic of Korea 12 May 2009

2. Priority Projects (a) Meteorology • improvement of precipitation forecasting related to interaction between tropical cyclones and monsoon, including development and implementation of an intensive observation experiment; • application of Dvorak and microwave satellite image analysis techniques; • application of radar-based analysis/products for landfalling tropical cyclones; • application of ensembles of guidance from dynamical models, conceptual models, statistical models and systematic knowledge-based approach; • use of high resolution numerical models with advanced data assimilation techniques; • better understanding of TC-related issues across different spatial and time scales, including climatological aspects such as El Nino/La Nina and global warming/climate change;

3. Priority Projects (b) Meteorology and Hydrology • application of meteorological information for forecasting of river flooding and urban flash flood; • better understanding of wave, storm surge and marine forecasting; (c) Meteorology and DPP • development of technical procedures to quantify forecast uncertainties and to convert probabilistic information into effective warnings; and • development of decision-making tools for DPP purpose including the integration of forecast informationwith GIS and the use of automated information processing systems.

4. Activities in 2009 • 12-15 May – 1st TRCG Technical Forum • Oct / Nov – Roving Seminar • Regular attachment activities: • Research fellowship (as offered by Members) • Operational forecasters to RSMC Tokyo, no longer strictly women, though women still accorded higher priority

5. TRCG Technical Forum (TF) • TRCG TF, say every 4 years, to: • strengthen working relationships among TRCG members; • share research and training experiences among Members; • extract relevant research findings such as from IWTC; • review and update project progress and priorities; • update and mobilize “resource persons” in support of TRCG initiatives; • integrate application needs of the three components; and • plan new cycle of activities.

6. 1st TRCG Technical Forum • Target participants: (a) operational forecasters and system developers (about 28); (b) TRCG members (about 14). • Objectives: (a) to maximise the use of TC analysis and forecasting, including probabilistic and EPS, information; (b) to share experience in the development of post-processing techniques in support of consensus (deterministic) and probabilistic forecasts; and (c) to identify Members’ needs in TIPS-like systems in support of forecasting and warning operations. • KRA 6: Improved capacity to generate and provide accurate, timely and understandable information on typhoon-related threats (in particular user-oriented and friendly TC products and information).

7. 1st TRCG Technical Forum • Training workshop jointly with WGM and WMO/TCP on EPS/consensus forecasts and TIPS themes • 12 – 15 May 2009 • Venue: Jeju Island (RoK) • Contents: • (a) Lectures on EPS, consensus and probabilistic forecasts for TC applications • (b) TIPS tutorials and demo sessions • (c) TRCG planning meeting

8. Research and Training Resources • Research (R) and training (T) activities undertaken or being pursued can be summarized as follows: • Attachment of forecasters to RSMC Tokyo (T) • Roving seminars (T) • Research Fellowship Scheme (R) • Special projects, e.g. SPECTRUM in the 1990s (R) • Workshops of Typhoon Committee, WMO or others (R, T) • Output from such activities are generally in the form of: • Scientific lectures (Integrated Workshops/TC Sessions) • Training handouts and lecture notes • Scientific papers to TCAR or journals.

9. Concept Note on Knowledge Database • Typhoon Committee 40th Session Action Item (para. 65, 4th bullet) :- • In view of the importance of the development of a knowledge database to institutionalize the information and experiences from the regional cooperation on training and research process, the Committee requested the TRCG to develop a concept note in cooperation with AWG and other Working Groups for presentation to the Committee at its 41st Session.

10. Knowledge-based Resource Portal • A knowledge-based resource portal will be established, managed and operated by TCS under the Typhoon Committee website with input of contents provided by TRCG and Members. The purpose is to collate and consolidate knowledge and resource material generated from various research and training activities for reference by Members and users; and also to provide a crucial link between research and training activities within TRCG.

14. Strategic Re-think? • Review and Consolidation • Sustainability and Continuity • New Directions

15. Strategic Re-think? • Training (Capacity-building) • From nothing to something? • From something to everything? • Research • Application and operation-oriented? • Service and DPP-focused? • Who are our customers? Forecasters, modellers, system developers, or decision- makers?

16. Strategic Re-think? • The Lesson of Nargis • Forecasting and warning issues? • Decision-making issues? • Emergency response issues? • Political issues? (Hence beyond our sphere of influence?)

17. Discussion Topics • Review of research and training benefits • Training and research priority areas • Research strategy and opportunities • Training strategy and opportunities • Cross-cutting initiatives • Activity plans for the coming four years • Knowledge-based resource portal • Liaison and communication issues