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### Comparing Meansfrom Two Samples

and

One-Sample Inference for Proportions

Stat 111 - Lecture 14 - Two Means

Administrative Notes

- Homework 5 is posted on website
- Due Wednesday, July 1st

Stat 111 - Lecture 14 - Two Means

Outline

- Two Sample Z-test (known variance)
- Two Sample t-test (unknown variance)
- Matched Pair Test and Examples
- Tests and Intervals for Proportions (Chapter 8)

Stat 111 - Lecture 14 - Two Means

Comparing Two Samples

- Up to now, we have looked at inference for one sample of continuous data
- Our next focus in this course is comparing the data from two different samples
- For now, we will assume that these two different samples are independent of each other and come from two distinct populations

Population 1:1 , 1

Population 2: 2 , 2

Sample 1: , s1

Sample 2: , s2

Stat 111 - Lecture 14 - Means

Blackout Baby Boom Revisited

- Nine months (Monday, August 8th) after Nov 1965 blackout, NY Times claimed an increased birth rate
- Already looked at single two-week sample: found no significant difference from usual rate (430 births/day)
- What if we instead look at difference between weekends and weekdays?

Weekdays

Weekends

Stat 111 - Lecture 14 - Means

Two-Sample Z test

- We want to test the null hypothesis that the two populations have different means
- H0: 1 = 2 or equivalently, 1 - 2 = 0
- Two-sided alternative hypothesis: 1 - 2 0
- If we assume our population SDs 1 and 2 are known, we can calculate a two-sample Z statistic:
- We can then calculate a p-value from this Z statistic using the standard normal distribution

Stat 111 - Lecture 14 - Means

Two-Sample Z test for Blackout Data

- To use Z test, we need to assume that our pop. SDs are known: 1 = s1 = 21.7 and 2 = s2 = 24.5
- From normal table, P(Z > 7.5) is less than 0.0002, so our p-value = 2 P(Z > 7.5) is less than 0.0004
- Conclusion here is a significant difference between birth rates on weekends and weekdays
- We don’t usually know the population SDs, so we need a method for unknown 1 and 2

Stat 111 - Lecture 14 - Two Means

Two-Sample t test

- We still want to test the null hypothesis that the two populations have equal means (H0: 1 - 2 = 0)
- If 1 and 2 are unknown, then we need to use the sample SDs s1 and s2 instead, which gives us the two-sample T statistic:
- The p-value is calculated using the t distribution, but what degrees of freedom do we use?
- df can be complicated and often is calculated by software
- Simpler and more conservative: set degrees of freedom equal to the smaller of (n1-1) or (n2-1)

Stat 111 - Lecture 14 - Two Means

Two-Sample t test for Blackout Data

- To use t test, we need to use our sample standard deviations s1 = 21.7 and s2 = 24.5
- We need to look up the tail probabilities using the t distribution
- Degrees of freedom is the smaller of n1-1 = 22

or n2-1 = 7

Stat 111 - Lecture 14 - Two Means

Two-Sample t test for Blackout Data

- From t-table with df = 7, we see that

P(T > 7.5) < 0.0005

- If our alternative hypothesis is two-sided, then we know that our p-value < 2 0.0005 = 0.001
- We reject the null hypothesis at -level of 0.05 and conclude there is a significant difference between birth rates on weekends and weekdays
- Same result as Z-test, but we are a little more conservative

Stat 111 - Lecture 14 - Two Means

Two-Sample Confidence Intervals

- In addition to two sample t-tests, we can also use the t distribution to construct confidence intervals for the mean difference
- When 1 and 2 are unknown, we can form the following 100·C% confidence interval for the mean difference 1 - 2 :
- The critical value tk* is calculated from a t distribution with degrees of freedom k
- k is equal to the smaller of (n1-1) and (n2-1)

Stat 111 - Lecture 14 - Two Means

Confidence Interval for Blackout Data

- We can calculate a 95% confidence interval for the mean difference between birth rates on weekdays and weekends:
- We get our critical value tk* = 2.365 is calculated from a t distribution with 7 degrees of freedom, so our 95% confidence interval is:
- Since zero is not contained in this interval, we know the difference is statistically significant!

Stat 111 - Lecture 14 - Two Means

Matched Pairs

- Sometimes the two samples that are being compared are matched pairs (not independent)
- Example: Sentences for crack versus powder cocaine

- We could test for the mean difference between X1 = crack sentences and X2 = powder sentences
- However, we realize that these data are paired: each row of sentences have a matching quantity of cocaine
- Our t-test for two independent samples ignores this relationship

Stat 111 - Lecture 14 - Two Means

Matched Pairs Test

- First, calculate the difference d = X1 - X2 for each pair
- Then, calculate the mean and SD of the differences d

Stat 111 - Lecture 14 - Two Means

- Instead of a two-sample test for the difference between X1 and X2, we do a one-sample test on the difference d
- Null hypothesis: mean difference between the two samples is equal to zero

H0 : d= 0 versus Ha : d 0

- Usual test statistic when population SD is unknown:
- p-value calculated from t-distribution with df = 8
- P(T > 5.24) < 0.0005 so p-value < 0.001
- Difference between crack and powder sentences is statistically significant at -level of 0.05

Stat 111 - Lecture 14 - Two Means

Matched Pairs Confidence Interval

- We can also construct a confidence interval for the mean differenced of matched pairs
- We can just use the confidence intervals we learned for the one-sample, unknown case
- Example: 95% confidence interval for mean difference between crack and powder sentences:

Stat 111 - Lecture 14 - Two Means

Summary of Two-Sample Tests

- Two independent samples with known 1 and 2
- We use two-sample Z-test with p-values calculated using the standard normal distribution
- Two independent samples with unknown 1 and 2
- We use two-sample t-test with p-values calculated using the t distribution with degrees of freedom equal to the smaller of n1-1 and n2-1
- Also can make confidence intervals using t distribution
- Two samples that are matched pairs
- We first calculate the differences for each pair, and then use our usual one-sample t-test on these differences

Stat 111 - Lecture 14 - Two Means

One-Sample Inference for Proportions

Stat 111 - Lecture 14 - Two Means

Revisiting Count Data

- Chapter 6 and 7 covered inference for the population mean of continuous data
- We now return to count data:
- Example: Opinion Polls
- Xi = 1 if you support Obama, Xi = 0 if not
- We call p the population proportion for Xi = 1
- What is the proportion of people who support the war?
- What is the proportion of Red Sox fans at Penn?

Stat 111 - Lecture 14- One-Sample Proportions

Inference for population proportion p

- We will use sample proportion as our best estimate of the unknown population proportion p

where Y = sample count

- Tool 1: use our sample statistic as the center of an entire confidence interval of likely values for our population parameter

Confidence Interval : Estimate ± Margin of Error

- Tool 2: Use the data to for a specific hypothesis test
- Formulate your null and alternative hypotheses
- Calculate the test statistic
- Find the p-value for the test statistic

Stat 111 - Lecture 14- One-Sample Proportions

Distribution of Sample Proportion

- In Chapter 5, we learned that the sample proportion technically has a binomial distribution
- However, we also learned that if the sample size is large, the sample proportion approximately follows a Normal distribution with mean and standard deviation:
- We will essentially use this approximation throughout chapter 8, so we can make probability calculations using the standard normal table

Stat 111 - Lecture 14- One-Sample Proportions

Confidence Interval for a Proportion

- We could use our sample proportion as the center of a confidence interval of likely values for the population parameter p:
- The width of the interval is a multiple of the standard deviation of the sample proportion
- The multiple Z* is calculated from a normal distribution and depends on the confidence level

Stat 111 - Lecture 14- One-Sample Proportions

Confidence Interval for a Proportion

- One Problem: this margin of error involves the population proportion p, which we don’t actually know!
- Solution: substitute in the sample proportion for the population proportion p, which gives us the interval:

Stat 111 - Lecture 14- One-Sample Proportions

- What proportion of Penn students are Red Sox fans?
- Use Stat 111 class survey as sample
- Y = 25 out of n = 192 students are Red Sox fans so
- 95% confidence interval for the population proportion:
- Proportion of Red Sox fans at Penn is probably between 8% and 18%

Stat 111 - Lecture 14- One-Sample Proportions

Hypothesis Test for a Proportion

- Suppose that we are now interested in using our count data to test a hypothesized population proportion p0
- Example: an older study says that the proportion of Red Sox fans at Penn is 0.10.
- Does our sample show a significantly different proportion?
- First Step: Null and alternative hypotheses
- H0: p = 0.10 vs. Ha: p 0.10
- Second Step: Test Statistic

Stat 111 - Lecture 14- One-Sample Proportions

Hypothesis Test for a Proportion

- Problem: test statistic involves population proportion p
- For confidence intervals, we plugged in sample proportion but for test statistics, we plug in the hypothesized proportion p0 :
- Example: test statistic for Red Sox example

Stat 111 - Lecture 14- One-Sample Proportions

Hypothesis Test for a Proportion

- Third step: need to calculate a p-value for our test statistic using the standard normal distribution
- Red Sox Example: Test statistic Z = 1.39
- What is the probability of getting a test statistic as extreme or more extreme than Z = 1.39? ie. P(Z > 1.39) = ?
- Two-sided alternative, so p-value = 2P(Z>1.39) = 0.16
- We don’t reject H0 at a =0.05 level, and conclude that Red Sox proportion is not significantly different from p0=0.10

prob = 0.082

Z = 1.39

Stat 111 - Lecture 14- One-Sample Proportions

- Mass ESP experiment in 1977 Sunday Mirror (UK)
- Psychic hired to send readers a mental message about a particular color (out of 5 choices). Readers then mailed back the color that they “received” from psychic
- Newspaper declared the experiment a success because, out of 2355 responses, they received 521 correct ones ( )
- Is the proportion of correct answers statistically different than we would expect by chance (p0 = 0.2) ?
- H0: p= 0.2 vs. Ha: p 0.2

Stat 111 - Lecture 14- One-Sample Proportions

- Calculate a p-value using the standard normal distribution
- Two-sided alternative, so p-value = 2P(Z>2.43) = 0.015
- We reject H0 at a =0.05 level, and conclude that the survey proportion is significantly different from p0=0.20
- We could also calculate a 95% confidence interval for p:

prob = 0.0075

Z = 2.43

Interval doesn’t contain 0.20

Stat 111 - Lecture 14- One-Sample Proportions

- Confidence intervals for proportion p is centered at the sample proportion and has a margin of error:
- Before the study begins, we can calculate the sample size needed for a desired margin of error
- Problem: don’t know sample prop. before study begins!
- Solution: use which gives us the maximum m
- So, if we want a margin of error less than m, we need

Stat 111 - Lecture 14- One-Sample Proportions

- Red Sox Example: how many students should I poll in order to have a margin of error less than 5% in a 95% confidence interval?
- We would need a sample size of 385 students
- ESP example: how many responses must newspaper receive to have a margin of error less than 1% in a 95% confidence interval?

Stat 111 - Lecture 14- One-Sample Proportions

Next Class - Lecture 15

- Two-Sample Inference for Proportions
- Moore, McCabe and Craig: Section 8.2

Stat 111 - Lecture 14- One-Sample Proportions

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