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How to value ecosystem goods and services in agriculture at increasing land use pressure ? Katarina Hedlund Lund uni

How to value ecosystem goods and services in agriculture at increasing land use pressure ? Katarina Hedlund Lund university, Sweden . Proyeksi Guna-Lahan. Production of goods is increasing Food, biofuels, timber, water use Natural habitats are declining Mitigating climate change

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How to value ecosystem goods and services in agriculture at increasing land use pressure ? Katarina Hedlund Lund uni

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  1. How to value ecosystem goods and services in agriculture at increasing land use pressure ? Katarina Hedlund Lund university, Sweden

  2. Proyeksi Guna-Lahan • Production of goods is increasing Food, biofuels, timber, water use • Natural habitats are declining • Mitigating climate change Increased pressure on land for production of biomass

  3. Guna-lahan Pertanian EU biofuel strategy • 1% (produced in EU) • 6% 10% of total area 2020 10% 43% of total area Nowicki 2006

  4. Eurostat 2008 Current land use in Europe

  5. Land use demands Biofuel production Agriculture Natural grasslands

  6. How do we conserve ecosystem services and biodiversity ? Extensive agriculture, Dehesas in Spain Agri-environmental schemes: Heterogeneity in landscapes Extensification Protected areas

  7. EU common agricultural policy CAP • Implemented nationally as rural development plans with additional national funding • CAP (12 000 million €/yr), 47% of EU budget • Farming is 5% of European economy • CAP subsidies • Area based income support • Rural development actions • Agri-environmental schemes

  8. Jasa-jasa ekosistem terancam oleh Pertanian Intensif • Musuh alami • Pollination • Resistance to pests & invasive species • Siklus Hara • Terensi Air • Retensi Carbon

  9. Intensification and above ground services • Increased heterogeneity may give higher diversity • Effect is scale dependent • Not true for all species Tscharnkte et al. 2007

  10. Soil ecosystem services • Nutrient cycling • N, P retention and availability to plants • Water retention • Aggregate structure, organic matter • Carbon retention • Fuels microbial activity, mitigates climate change

  11. Soil ecosystem services-the ”workers”

  12. Soil services Reduced under intensive management Hedlund 2002

  13. SOILSERVICEConflicting demands of land use: Soil biodiversity and the sustainable delivery of ecosystem goods and services in Europe • value soil ecosystem services. • predict sustainability of ecosystem services, by field and modelling studies. • Build scenarios to identify economical and social drivers of land use http://www.kem.ekol.lu.se/soilservice/index.html

  14. Soil carbon Nutrients Natural enemies Pollination Land use demands Biofuel production Agriculture Natural grasslands

  15. Valuasi Jasa-jasa Ekologis Market values of ecological services: prevention of pests - natural enemies pollination water retention nutrient retention Non market values: recreation landscapes Markanday et al 2008

  16. Valuasi Ekonomi merupakan pendekatan yang dinamis Jasa-jasa Ekosistem dalam Pertanian: Dynamic network of interacting organisms Responding to changes in land use Depending on spatial and temporal scales

  17. Economic model • simulated landscapes • predicts regional land use (20 yrs) • Ecological model • farmers scale • predicts output of • ecosystem services JASA-JASA TANAH Values of services for farmer and society Predictions on sustainability Feed back to policymakers

  18. AgriPoliS Agent-based model of regional structural changeover time and space Factor endowment Interactions Farms Actions Agricultural Policy Simulator (Happe 2004, Brady et al 2007) Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO), Halle, Germany

  19. Eksogen: Prices of inputs/outputs Wage and interest rates Agricultural policy Climate Technology Endogen: Land market Regional markets Input & output levels Land use Landscape impacts ES production Driver untuk AgriPoliS

  20. Farm structure Average farm size Number of farms Distribution of farm type Land use Composition of crops Distribution of field size Landscape mosaic Econ. Performance Land rents by soil type Farm income Farm profit Investment activity Returns to labour Livestock Numbers of livestock Animal density Output from AgriPoliS

  21. Landscape impacts – Land use & field size

  22. Land use data (GIS based)Southern Sweden Cereal production Grasslands

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