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Predictors of Restaurant Bankruptcy: Study Findings & Key Indicators

Discover key predictors of restaurant bankruptcies, such as early occurrence, high specific industry risk, significant overdue taxes, and correlation among financial ratios. Learn how liquidity, profitability, and solvency metrics play crucial roles in predicting business failure.

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Predictors of Restaurant Bankruptcy: Study Findings & Key Indicators

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  1. Undersøkelse -Konkurspredikatorer i restaurantbransjen • Konkurs skjer tidlig i selskapenes levetid • Konkurssannsynlighet høyere enn snittet, dvs. høy bransjespesifikk konkursrisiko • Store skyldige beløp i offentlige avgifter året før konkurs • Ikke klar negativ salgsutvikling for konkurselskapene Siv.øk.utr. NHH Kristian Ellingsen

  2. Undersøkelse -Konkurspredikatorer i restaurantbransjen • Relevante enkeltnøkkeltall: • Driftsresultat før avskr./Salgsinntekt • Totalkapitalrentabilitet • Likviditetsgrad 2 • Egenkapitalprosent • Stor grad av korrelasjon mellom nøkkeltallene

  3. Undersøkelse -Konkurspredikatorer i restaurantbransjen • Andre predikatorer (dummyvariabler) • Uren revisjonsberetning (bortsett fra presiseringer) • Negativ egenkapital • Selskapsalder • Kombinerte modeller treffer best • Hva treffer best når: • Likviditetstall på kort sikt (1 år) • Lønnsomhets- og soliditetstall på lengre sikt (2 – 3 år) • Dummyvariablene treffer hele tiden

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