EU Enlargement Situation: 2004 When Ireland “joined Europe” in 1973, its per-capita income was just 62% of the EU average; by 2002 it was 121%. anyone talking to politicians from the new member states will know the refrain: “We want to be like Ireland.” (Economist, April 15 2004)
Poem delivered at EU Enlargement Ceremony by Irish Nobel Laureate Seamus Heaney BEACONS AT BEALTAINE Phoenix Park, May Day, 2004 Uisce: water. And fionn: the water's clear. But dip and find this Gaelic water Greek: A phoenix flames upon fionn uisce here. Strangers were barbaroi to the Greek ear. Now let the heirs of all who could not speak The language, whose ba-babbling was unclear, Come with their gift of tongues past each frontier And find the answering voices that they seek As fionn and uisce answer phoenix here. The May Day hills were burning, far and near, When our land's first footers beached boats in the creek In uisce, fionn, strange words that soon grew clear; So on a day when newcomers appear Let it be a homecoming and let us speak The unstrange word, as it behoves us here, Move lips, move minds and make new meanings flare Like ancient beacons signalling, peak to peak, From middle sea to north sea, shining clear As phoenix flame upon fionn uisce here.
New member states and those still knocking at the door! • Estonia • Lithuania • Latvia • Poland • Slovakia • Czech Republic • Slovenia • Hungary • Romania • Bulgaria • Turkey • Malta • Cyprus
Resultsof the EU membership referendums(2003) * Cyprus, the 10th EU applicant, has ratified membership without a popular vote
Estonia Nato Member in late March 2004. Prime Minister – Juhan Parts
LATVIA Indulis Emsis, of the Greens and Farmers Union, became Europe's first Green prime minister after his predecessor, Einars Repse, resigned less than three months before the May EU entry date
Lithuania Area: 65,300 square km Population:3.7 million80 percent of the population is Lithuanian, 11 percent are Polish and 7 percent are Russians. Dominant religion: Roman Catholic Capital city:Vilnius Currency: Litas (1 litas=0.25USD) Official language: Lithuanian (lietuviu) Political system: Republic. New constitution ratified in October 1992. The country is governed by the President, supreme legislative body Seimas (a unicameral Parliament of 141 members) and the Government Application for EU accession: 8 December 1995. Accession negotiations started in February 2000, Accession 1 May 2004 NATO member March 2004
Lithuania Valdas Adamkus was re-elected Lithuanian president in June 2004 Mr Brazauskas, a former president and Lithuania's last Communist boss of the Soviet era, took office in July 2001 after the previous centre-right government fell amid infighting over privatisation. Issues: 80 percent of the country's energy is produced by the Ignalina nuclear plant. The plant, which uses the same model of reactors as those in the ill-fated Chornobyl plant in Ukraine, has been labeled unsafe by Brussels. Lithuania has already pledged to shut down The first of the two reactors by 2005
Slovenia Population: Just under two million inhabitants Capital city: Ljubljana Currency:Slovenian tolar - SIT GDP per capita: 16.100 PPS (2000 data), which equals 71% of EU average. Slovenia is one of the most prosperous candidate countries for EU membership. The GDP of Slovenia is above Greece and close to that of Portugal Official language: Slovene (slovenščina) Head of State: The President of the Republic represents Slovenia and is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces Legislative bodies: The Republic of Slovenia is a Parliamentary democracy with the National Assembly (90 MPs) and the National Council (40 counsellors). The government, composed of Prime Minister and the cabinet, is the executive branch
Slovenia (2) • GDP per capita is very close to Portugal's and approaching double that of the next wealthiest east European applicant, the Czech Republic.
Hungary Country profile
Czech Republic GDP/capita12,498 ECU (PPS) in 1999 (PPS) (Eurostat)59% of EU-15 average (1999) Currency1 Crown or CZK = 100 halire - 1 crown = c.37 EURO (January 2001) General Government budget2000 Budget: c. EURO 32 billion Government deficit9,5% of GDP (2001 forecast)Public debt35% if GDO (estimate 2001)Trade with EUSurplus: 0.1 Area:78,866km2 Population:10.3 million Neighbours: (border in km)Germany (646), Poland (658), Slovakia (215), Austria (362)mm Density:131 inhabitants per km2mm Distribution66% urban population, 34% rural populationmm
Hungary Population: 9.9 million (UN, 2003) Capital: Budapest Major language: Hungarian Major religion: Christianity Life expectancy: 68 years (men), 76 years (women) (UN) Monetary unit: 1 forint = 100 filler Main exports: Machinery and transport equipment, foodstuffs, chemicals GNI per capita: US $5,290 (World Bank, 2002) Internet domain: .hu International dialling code: +36
Marek Belka, a former finance minister, became prime minister following the resignation of Leszek Miller in early May 2004, the day after EU accession. President: Aleksander Kwasniewski
Romania Country profile (Under construction)
Turkey • Turkey still does not meet the Copenhagen political criteria. • Turkey’s national programme for the adoption of the acquis set the scene for a major constitutional reform package,
Bulgaria • Country profile • Area: • 110,993 sq. km • Population: • approximately 8 million citizens • Capital city: • Sofia • Borders: • To the north with Romania and the Danube river, to the east is the Black Sea, to the south are Turkey and Greece, and to the west - the FYR of Macedonia and Yugoslavia. • Form of State: • Parliamentary republic
December 2001 – Enl. schedule • DecemberSunday 2nd to Thursday 6thBelgian deputy foreign affairs minister Annemie Neyts visits Cyprus, Turkey, the Czech Republic and Hungary on her pre-Laeken tour of the candidate countries • Monday 3rdEuropean External Relations Commissioner Chris Patten visits Romania • Monday 3rd, Tuesday 4thEU-Czech joint parliamentary committee meets, Brussels • Tuesday 4th, Wednesday 5thCommission Director-General for Enlargement Eneko Landaburu visits Latvia • Thursday 6th-Friday 7thEuropean Employment and Social Affairs Commissioner
How the east Europeans shape up Database
Germany • Germany: challenges: • In the east, in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Brandenburg, and Saxony--the Lander bordering Poland--support for enlargement is extremely low. Only one out of three residents in the region is in favor of the move • Wages in Poland are as much as six times lower than in Germany • Germany and Austria pressed for an elective seven-year ban on the movement of labor from new EU member states. • free competition in the service sector could have grave implications for eastern Germany's already battered construction industry. • Germany : the opportunities: • Germany's trade with Eastern and Central Europe accounts for about 10 percent of its total foreign trade, falling just $1 billion short of trade with NAFTA counties.
‘state-of-play’ - 2001 • France's foreign minister, Hubert Vedrine: suggestion - EU might consider simultaneously bringing into the EU all the twelve candidates currently negotiating their accession – Big bang! • Hungary’s PM, Orban: the entire EU enlargement exercise could be put at risk if too many candidates with different levels of readiness joined the EU at the same time.
The Copenhagen Criteria (1) • States must prove their respect for democratic principles, the rule of law, human rights and the protection of minorities
The Copenhagen Criteria(2) • States must have functioning market economies able to cope with the competitive pressures and market forces of the EU • Agriculture: Enlargement will double the EU's agricultural workforce and increase by 50% the EU's arable land area.
The Copenhagen Criteria (3) • States must be able to take on all the obligations of membership, including incorporating into their national legal system all the laws agreed by the EU • sheer technical slog of converting some 80,000 pages of EU law into domestic legislation is enormous – and states must try to ‘enact’ these laws • Most controversial of all: EU environmental regulations and labour standards for health and safety. • Says the EIU's Barysch: "Small companies that are left over from central planning and are operating fairly efficiently now would be put out of business by the introduction of full labour standards. Strict environmental standards would cause sectors such as steel and chemicals to lose competitiveness."
The ‘acquis’: EU regulations • Fear: the EU's heavy-handed bureaucracy and its onerous regulations could stifle the entrepreneurial spirit that has been unleashed in their countries since the fall of communism.
The issues for the EU • The EU budget: 96 billion euro • CAP and Structural Funds take 80% • How do the applicant states fit into this scenario • Free movement of labour - thorny issue
Applicant states: their view • EU money: • promise of EU membership bringing in additional billions in direct and portfolio investment that is transforming countries such as Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. • a conservative estimates that it will be running at 10 billion euro a year, or, 2 – 3 % of GDP • Public Support: • Poland's accession to the EU has fallen to 49.6 percent from nearly 62 percent last year, according to a recent poll carried out for Taylor Nelsen Sofres by the Czech institute Factum. • The share of those supporting EU enlargement fell from 62.9 to 55.7 percent from last year • The poll, based on a 12,042 sample in 11 Central and Eastern European countries, showed support to be the strongest in Slovenia, Bulgaria and Slovakia, and the weakest in Estonia. The share of those supporting EU enlargement fell from 62.9 to 55.7 percent from last year. mwjb 8 November issue of Gazeta Wyborcza p. 20
Commission view: November 2001 • Prodi: full EU members in time for European Parliament elections due in June 2004. • good news for Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania and the Mediterranean islands of Cyprus and Malta.
Applicant states: problems • Corruption • Fraud • Trafficking ( women, drugs, ) • Protection ( minorities)
Challenges and problems • The big problem in bringing eastern European countries into the EU is: the desire for harmonization is taking precedence over the need for flexibility. • The EU insists the applicants adopt the acquis wholesale, • the new entrants desire to be a part of every EU programme going, regardless of its merits.