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EU Enlargement

EU Enlargement. Situation: November 2001. What states are knocking on the EU door. Estonia Lithuania Latvia Poland Slovakia Czech Republic Slovenia Hungary Romania Bulgaria Turkey Malta Cyprus. ‘state-of-play’.

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EU Enlargement

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  1. EU Enlargement Situation: November 2001

  2. What states are knocking on the EU door • Estonia • Lithuania • Latvia • Poland • Slovakia • Czech Republic • Slovenia • Hungary • Romania • Bulgaria • Turkey • Malta • Cyprus

  3. ‘state-of-play’ • France's foreign minister, Hubert Vedrine: suggestion - EU might consider simultaneously bringing into the EU all the twelve candidates currently negotiating their accession – Big bang! • Hungary’s PM, Orban: the entire EU enlargement exercise could be put at risk if too many candidates with different levels of readiness joined the EU at the same time.

  4. The Copenhagen Criteria (1) • States must prove their respect for democratic principles, the rule of law, human rights and the protection of minorities

  5. The Copenhagen Criteria(2) • States must have functioning market economies able to cope with the competitive pressures and market forces of the EU • Agriculture: Enlargement will double the EU's agricultural workforce and increase by 50% the EU's arable land area.

  6. The Copenhagen Criteria (3) • States must be able to take on all the obligations of membership, including incorporating into their national legal system all the laws agreed by the EU • sheer technical slog of converting some 80,000 pages of EU law into domestic legislation is enormous – and states must try to ‘enact’ these laws • Most controversial of all: EU environmental regulations and labour standards for health and safety. • Says the EIU's Barysch: "Small companies that are left over from central planning and are operating fairly efficiently now would be put out of business by the introduction of full labour standards. Strict environmental standards would cause sectors such as steel and chemicals to lose competitiveness."

  7. The ‘acquis’: EU regulations • Fear: the EU's heavy-handed bureaucracy and its onerous regulations could stifle the entrepreneurial spirit that has been unleashed in their countries since the fall of communism.

  8. A viewpoint from the ‘Economist’

  9. The issues for the EU • The EU budget: 96 billion euro • CAP and Structural Funds take 80% • How do the applicant states fit into this scenario • Free movement of labour - thorny issue

  10. Applicant states: their view • EU money: • promise of EU membership bringing in additional billions in direct and portfolio investment that is transforming countries such as Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. • a conservative estimates that it will be running at 10 billion euro a year, or, 2 – 3 % of GDP • Public Support: • Poland's accession to the EU has fallen to 49.6 percent from nearly 62 percent last year, according to a recent poll carried out for Taylor Nelsen Sofres by the Czech institute Factum. • The share of those supporting EU enlargement fell from 62.9 to 55.7 percent from last year • The poll, based on a 12,042 sample in 11 Central and Eastern European countries, showed support to be the strongest in Slovenia, Bulgaria and Slovakia, and the weakest in Estonia. The share of those supporting EU enlargement fell from 62.9 to 55.7 percent from last year. mwjb 8 November issue of Gazeta Wyborcza p. 20

  11. Commission view: November 2001 • Prodi: full EU members in time for European Parliament elections due in June 2004. • good news for Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania and the Mediterranean islands of Cyprus and Malta.

  12. Applicant states: problems • Corruption • Fraud • Trafficking ( women, drugs, ) • Protection ( minorities)

  13. Challenges and problems • The big problem in bringing eastern European countries into the EU is: the desire for harmonization is taking precedence over the need for flexibility. • The EU insists the applicants adopt the acquis wholesale, • the new entrants desire to be a part of every EU programme going, regardless of its merits.

  14. How the east Europeans shape up Database

  15. Germany • Germany: challenges: • In the east, in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Brandenburg, and Saxony--the Lander bordering Poland--support for enlargement is extremely low. Only one out of three residents in the region is in favor of the move • Wages in Poland are as much as six times lower than in Germany • Germany and Austria pressed for an elective seven-year ban on the movement of labor from new EU member states. • free competition in the service sector could have grave implications for eastern Germany's already battered construction industry. • Germany : the opportunities: • Germany's trade with Eastern and Central Europe accounts for about 10 percent of its total foreign trade, falling just $1 billion short of trade with NAFTA counties.

  16. Estonia • from Soviet annex to Nordic tiger economy

  17. Latvia

  18. Lithuania • Area: 65,300 square km Population:3.7 million80 percent of the population is Lithuanian, 11 percent are Polish and 7 percent are Russians. • Dominant religion: Roman Catholic • Capital city:Vilnius • Currency: Litas (1 litas=0.25USD) • Official language: Lithuanian (lietuviu) • Political system: Republic. New constitution ratified in October 1992. The country is governed by the President, supreme legislative body Seimas (a unicameral Parliament of 141 members) and the Government • Application for EU accession: 8 December 1995. Accession negotiations started in February 2000

  19. Slovenia • Country profile • Population: Just under two million inhabitants • Capital city: Ljubljana • Currency:Slovenian tolar - SIT • GDP per capita: • 16.100 PPS (2000 data), which equals 71% of EU average. Slovenia is one of the most prosperous candidate countries for EU membership. The GDP of Slovenia is above Greece and close to that of Portugal. • Official language: Slovene (slovenščina) • Head of State:  • The President of the Republic represents Slovenia and is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces • Legislative bodies: • The Republic of Slovenia is a Parliamentary democracy with the National Assembly (90 MPs) and the National Council (40 counsellors). The government, composed of Prime Minister and the cabinet, is the executive branch

  20. Slovenia (2) • GDP per capita is very close to Portugal's and approaching double that of the next wealthiest east European applicant, the Czech Republic.

  21. Hungary Country profile

  22. Czech Republic • Area78,866km2 • Population10.3 million • Neighbours (border in km)Germany (646), Poland (658), Slovakia (215), Austria (362)mm • Density131 inhabitants per km2mm • Distribution66% urban population, 34% rural populationmm • Ethnic profileCzech (94%), Slovak (3%), Polish (0.6%), German (0.5%), Roma (0.3%), Hungarian (0.2%), Others (1%) • LanguageCzechReligionAtheist (39.8%), Roman Catholic (39.2%), Protestant (4.6%), Orthodox (3%), Other (13.4%) • ife expectancyAverage: 74.1 - 70.8 years (male), 77.7 (female) • GDP/capita12,498 ECU (PPS) in 1999 (PPS) (Eurostat)59% of EU-15 average (1999) • Currency1 Crown or CZK = 100 halire - 1 crown = c.37 EURO (January 2001) • General Government budget2000 Budget: c. EURO 32 billion • Government deficit9,5% of GDP (2001 forecast)Public debt35% if GDO (estimate 2001)Trade with EUSurplus: 0.1 Country profile

  23. Hungary Population10 millionArea93,036 km²Density107.8 inhabitants per km² Distribution63.7% urban population, 36.3% rural population NeighboursAustria (356 km border), Slovakia (679), Ukraine (137), Romania (453), Fr Yugoslavia (164), Croatia (355), Slovenia (102) Ethnic profileHungarian (96,6%) – 13 officially recognised and registered minorities: German, Gypsies, Croats, Slovaks, Romanians, Bulgarians, Greeks, Polish, Armenian, Ruthens, Serbs, Ukrainian – especially protected by Constitution as a component of the Hungarian state; right of representation in Parliament enshrined in the Constitution and the 1993 Minority Act LanguageHungarian ReligionRoman Catholic (65%), Reformed (20%), Lutherans (4%), Orthodox (2.7%), Jewish (1%) Life expectancyAverage: 71.35 years, 67.1 years (male), 75.6 years (female). GDP p.c. in 2000In Purchasing Power Standard: 11,700 Euro(app. 52% of EU average)Real GDP growth: 5.2% Inflation rate10.0 % annual average in 2000 Unemployment rateEnd-year 2000: 6.4% (ILO definition)Currency1 Forint or HUF = 100 Fillér1 Euro = HUF 260; HUF 1.000 = Euro 3.8General gov. budget balance2000 Budget Deficit: 3.7% of GDPCurrent account balanceIn 2000: -1,620 million Euro = 3,1% of GDP Foreign debtGross foreign debt: 25,562 million EuroDebt export ratio: 82.5%Trade with EU in 2000Exports to the EU: 75,1 as % of the totalImports from the EU: 58,4 as % of the total

  24. Slovakia

  25. Poland

  26. Romania Country profile (Under construction)

  27. Turkey • Turkey still does not meet the Copenhagen political criteria. • Turkey’s national programme for the adoption of the acquis set the scene for a major constitutional reform package,

  28. Malta

  29. Cyprus

  30. Bulgaria • Country profile • Area:  • 110,993 sq. km • Population: • approximately 8 million citizens • Capital city: • Sofia • Borders: • To the north with Romania and the Danube river, to the east is the Black Sea, to the south are Turkey and Greece, and to the west - the FYR of Macedonia and Yugoslavia. • Form of State:  • Parliamentary republic

  31. December 2001 – Enl. schedule • DecemberSunday 2nd to Thursday 6thBelgian deputy foreign affairs minister Annemie Neyts visits Cyprus, Turkey, the Czech Republic and Hungary on her pre-Laeken tour of the candidate countries • Monday 3rdEuropean External Relations Commissioner Chris Patten visits Romania • Monday 3rd, Tuesday 4thEU-Czech joint parliamentary committee meets, Brussels • Tuesday 4th, Wednesday 5thCommission Director-General for Enlargement Eneko Landaburu visits Latvia • Thursday 6th-Friday 7thEuropean Employment and Social Affairs Commissioner

  32. Economist, Nov. 22 2003

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