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Monsoons and Climate Change Presentation made at WCRP Workshop, Lille, France 16 June, 2010 K. Krishna Kumar Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (krishna@tropmet.res.in).

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slide1

Monsoons and Climate ChangePresentation made at WCRP Workshop, Lille, France16 June, 2010K. Krishna KumarIndian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune(krishna@tropmet.res.in)

slide2

MotivationIs Climate Change Impacting Agriculture and Food-grain Production in water-limited tropical crop lands including monsoon dominated regions like India?

change in rate of food grain production in 1996 2006 relative to 1966 1996
Change (%) in rate of food grain production in 1996-2006 relative to 1966-1996

Over the last decade, 31 out of 41 countries that hold 90% of the water-limited croplands show a decline in annual average growth rate of food grain production.

Food grain: cereals+coarse grains+pulses

Data from FAOSTAT

Milesi C, A Samanta, H Hashimoto, K Krishna Kumar, S Ganguly, PS Thenkabail, AN. Srivastava, RR Nemani, RB Myneni

Remote Sensing, 2010

3

slide4
45% of the water-limited tropical croplands show a decline in relative growth of integrated NDVI over the last decade

% change in vegetation greenness during 1996-2006 compared to 1982-1992 as calculated from GIMMS-G NDVI

NDVI = NIR – RED / NIR+RED

slide5

Change (%) in rate of food grain production in 1996-2006 relative to 1966-1996

Change (%) in trend of peak annual precipitation in 1996-2006 relative to 1966-1996

5

spatio temporal deceleration in food grain production in india
Spatio-temporal deceleration in food grain production in India

Dry season

Wet season

Kharif

Mean annual T =27.1 °C

Rabi

Mean annual T =22.5 °C

slide7

Impact of Growing Season Rainfall and

Night time Temps on Rice Yields in India

Baseline

SRES A2

Tmin (°C)

Krishna Kumar et al, 2010

slide11

Changes in the Frequency Distribution of Extremes

during 1951-1970 and 1980-2000

Goswami et al., Dec., 2006

slide12

Change in predictability of Indian summer monsoon on weather scales

Error doubling Time for the last two quarters

(1953-1978 and 1979-2004)

First Lyapunov exponent

(18N-27N,

73E -85E)

Neena Mani et al, Geophys.Res. Letts (2009)

multi model ensemble vs best sub set
Multi Model Ensemble vs. Best sub-set
  • Metrics for selection of best sub-set of models
    • Mean Monsoon features
    • ENSO and its teleconnections
    • Intra-seasonal variability
performance of gfdl as an example
Performance of GFDL as an example

Mean Monsoon rainfall

Monsoon-ENSO

Tropical waves/MJO

Obs

GFDL2.0

GFDL2.1

slide16
Some Aspects of Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and Its ENSO Teleconnections as simulated by AR4 Models in 20th Century

Mean Monsoon Rainfall

Monsoon and ENSO

Tropical Waves; MJOs

Lin et al. 2006, J. Climate

expected future changes in rainfall and temperature over india under ipcc sres a1b ghg scenarios
Expected Future Changes in Rainfall and Temperature over India under IPCC SRES A1B GHG Scenarios

Krishna Kumar et al, 2010

future a1b 20c global rainfall sst
Future (A1b-20C) Global Rainfall/SST

Column integrated Moisture

Precipitation

SSTa

Monsoon Circulation Strength

Krishna Kumar et al, 2010

other expected changes in monsoon features
Other Expected Changes in Monsoon Features

Length of

Season

Annual

Cycle

Monsoon

Variability

Monsoon &

ENSO

Krishna Kumar et al, 2010

dynamical downscaling at iitm resolution 50km
Dynamical Downscaling at IITM(Resolution: 50km)

PRECIS

Evaluation experiment using LBCs derived

from ERA-15 (1979-93)

LBCs from Hadley Centre Models

  • Baseline (1961-90) – 3 members
  • A2 scenario (2071-2100) -3 members
  • B2 scenario (2071-2100)
  • 3 Members of QUMP (1961-2100) – A1b

LLBCs from ECHAM

Baseline 1961-1990; A2 scenario :1991-2100; B2 scenario : 1991-2100

slide22
PRECIS captures important regional information on summer monsoon rainfall missing in its parent GCM simulations.

HadCM3

PRECIS

possible climate change impacts are examined in the
Possible Climate Change impacts are examined in the:
  • Extremes in rainfall and temperature
  • Onset and advance of Monsoon
  • Active/break cycles
  • Intensity and frequency of Monsoon Depressions
slide24

Projections of Regional Tmax and Daily Rainfall Changes

Expected

change

in Tmax in

Future

under A2

Highest daily

Tmax (C) in

The Baseline

Period

Expected

change

in No. of

Rainy Days

In future

under A2

Expected

change

in Rainfall

Intensity in

a rainy day

in future

Krishna Kumar et al, 2010

biases and problems in rcm simulations statistical downscaling
Biases and problems in RCM simulationsStatistical Downscaling

Coldest night temperature

Frost days

plans under cordex at iitm
Plans under CORDEX at IITM

Run 3 RCMs (PRECIS, WRF and RegCM3) using LBC from at least 5 CMIP5 models

West Asia

New HPC System at IITM

  • IBM P6 with 117 nodes and 3744 cores (4.7GHz) with a peak performance of 70.2TF
  • 2 Peta bytes of Storage with a 3 Tier Architecture

To accomplish the above task

it will take 1000 days of computer

time with 64 processors and

300TB of storage for each RCP

issues on which a scientific consensus has not yet been arrived
Issues on which a Scientific Consensus has not yet been arrived

On the future projected strength of monsoon circulation and the quantum of rainfall

Projected changes of sub-seasonal monsoon behavior (eg. Onset, ISOs, Monsoon Depressions, Extremes etc.) – Partly Limited by Resolution of CMIP3 and limited RCM runs

The response of ENSO to Global Warming

The future strength of ENSO-Monsoon link

a lot more needs to be done
A lot more needs to be done…
  • In improving the current generation of global and regional climate models in their ability to simulate the regional features of climate such as monsoon rainfall etc.
  • In quantifying the uncertainties of projected climate and related impacts
  • In enhancing the interaction between groups that are generating climate inputs and those using them for impact/adaptation assessments