Scenario planning interventions in organizations
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Scenario planning interventions in organizations. An analysis of the causes of success and failure George Wrighta, Kees van der Heijdenb, George Burtb, Ron Bradfieldb, George Cairns. Carlos Eduardo Cunha ceac@cin.ufpe.br. Index. Inertia Giraffe in quicksand Case of success Conclusions

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Scenario planning interventions in organizations

Scenario planning interventions in organizations

An analysis of the causes of success and failure

George Wrighta, Kees van der Heijdenb, George Burtb, Ron Bradfieldb, George Cairns

Carlos Eduardo Cunha

ceac@cin.ufpe.br


Index
Index

  • Inertia

  • Giraffe in quicksand

  • Case of success

  • Conclusions

  • Questions?!


Inertia
Inertia

  • Commitment to current strategy will grow over time

  • Operational process become deeply embedded → mental model’s

  • Mental models:

    • prevent managers from sensing problems;

    • delay changes in strategy;

    • lead to action that is ineffective in a new environment.

  • In simpler, less turbulent environments, inertia may allow managers to focus on the most important issues



Inertia2
Inertia

  • Vigilance

    • Careful search and use of information;

    • There is better solution, and time for debate and search.

  • Hypervigilance

    • May have better solution, but not enough time.

  • Defensive avoidance

    • There is no better solution than current course.

      • Procrastination, buck passing, and bolstering.

  • Unconflicted adherence

    • Do not change course.

  • Unconflicted change

    • Change current course to unthreatened.


Inertia3
Inertia

  • Scenario Planning Intervention would be most appropriate after there is recognition that the threat current strategy is high, but before the psychological processes takes place


Giraffe in quicksand
Giraffe in quicksand

  • Major corporation

  • Senior management team

  • Interviews before scenario planning exercise

  • Interviewees active participants in exercise


Giraffe in quicksand1
Giraffe in quicksand

  • Organization’s current strategic direction was failing;

  • Risks to be serious if the organization failed to change its current strategy

  • Risks to be serious if the organization did change its strategy


Giraffe in quicksand2
Giraffe in quicksand

  • Procrastination, buck passing, and bolstering

  • ‘Rub salt into a wound’

  • http://br.youtube.com/watch?v=jcdRT0Xv2RU


Case of success
Case of success

  • Operating in the ‘drinks’ industry

  • Parent company’s principal role is the marketing and branding of the group’s drinks products

  • Mission:

    • Provide a quality service in the blending, bottling and storage of scotch whisky and other spirits;

    • Co-operate with our customers in assisting them to develop their brands;

    • Provide a realistic return on the company’s assets’

  • Long periods of small, incremental change, interrupted by much shorter periods of discontinuous, radical change.


Case of success1
Case of success

  • Pre-intervention interviews

  • Workshops with an informed outsider (remarkable person)

  • Stimulated and Encouraged

  • Re-consider the purpose and objectives of the organization

  • Shifting responsibility (buck passing)


Conclusions
Conclusions

  • Rethinking is an appropriate, vigilant, response to the ‘jolt’ of a scenario thinking intervention

  • Indicated lower procrastination, buck-passing, or bolstering behavior levels

  • Stresses engendered by a decision dilemma → decision avoidance → poor information search and contingency planning → disabled Scenario intervention


Conclusions1
Conclusions

  • However…

    • Team leadership

    • Team dynamics

    • Organizational Competence

    • Organizational Power

    • Organizational Architecture