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Climate Change Scenario Planning:. A Tool for Managing Resources in an Era of Uncertainty. Kaloko-Honokohau NHP. Joshua Tree National Park. Scenario Planning as part of the Planning Toolkit. Figure from Peterson et al. Conservation Biology Volume 17, No. 2, April 2003 . Scenario Planning.

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slide1
Climate Change Scenario Planning:

A Tool for Managing Resources in an Era of Uncertainty

Kaloko-Honokohau NHP

Joshua Tree National Park

scenario planning as part of the planning toolkit
Scenario Planning as part of the Planning Toolkit

Figure from Peterson et al. Conservation Biology

Volume 17, No. 2, April 2003

scenario planning
Scenario Planning
  • Scenarios Are:
  • A tool for long-term strategic planning
  • Compelling narratives of alternative environments in which decisions may be played out
  • Coherent, internally consistent, and plausible
  • Scenarios Are Not:
  • Predictions or Forecasts
  • A method for arriving at the “most likely” future
one dimensional vs scenario planning
One Dimensional vs Scenario Planning

One-Dimensional Planning

Outcomes

A

B

C

D

Scenario Planning

Possible Futures

A

Elements

Common to A-B

Elements

Common to A-C

B

Elements

Common to A-D

C

D

examples of scenario exercises shell oil
Examples of Scenario Exercises: Shell Oil
  • Early 1970s, Shell Oil used scenarios for long-term planning. Allowed them to be prepared for the 1970s oil crisis.

Scenario planning is a discipline for rediscovering the original entrepreneurial power of creative foresight in contexts of accelerated change, greater complexity, and genuine uncertainty.

—Pierre Wack, Royal Dutch/Shell, 1984

examples of scenario exercises tucson water
Examples of Scenario Exercises: Tucson Water

Southwest Surface Water Availability (P-E)

examples of scenario exercises tucson water1
Examples of Scenario Exercises: Tucson Water

Some direct Treatment of CO River water

Industry

standard

Surface

enhancement

Public accepts quality

Public pays for better quality

Recharge

Only

Enhanced

recharge

No direct Treatment of CO River water

climate change scenario planning workshop held nov 13 14 2007
Climate Change Scenario Planning Workshop held Nov 13-14, 2007
  • Goals:
  • Challenge assumptions about the future
  • Foster strategic thinking about how to respond in different situations
  • Gain insight into how to manage change and plan in the face of uncertainty
scenario planning an integration of science and management
Scenario Planning: An Integration of Science and Management

Types of Scenarios  different purposes

Analyze

Internal Dynamics

Define Focal Question

Build & Test Scenarios

Policy Screening

List External Drivers

Decision makers, scientists, topical experts

Decision makers

Scientists, topical experts

Strategic  testing concepts and models

Exploratory moving into the future, e.g., by extending past trends, considering contingencies

Anticipatory  aiming toward preferred futures – and avoiding ‘nightmares’

slide10
“Summer Soaker”

Current Mojave Desert:> 900 meters in elevation

slide11
“Summer Soaker”

Plausible future Mojave Desert:> 1100 meters in elevation

slide12
“Summer Soaker”

Potential loss of “transitional” environments

slide13
“When it rains, it pours”

Fires, 1967-2006: Approx.40,000 acres burned

slide14
“When it rains, it pours”

Plausible future fires: Approx.600,000 acres burned

climate change coming to a park near you
Climate Change:Coming to a Park Near You!

Time to make a plan

Slide courtesy of Jill Baron, USGS

slide16
NPS PLANNING FRAMEWORK

WHY

WHAT

HOW

GMP

Foundation

Program

Mgmt

Plans –

RSS

Strategic

Plan

Implementation

Plans

Annual Performance Plan

and Report

LONG TERM

SHORT TERM

slide17
Foundation ****Document

Desired Conditions

Goals

GMP*

Goal A

Adaptive Management

NPS PLANNING FRAMEWORK: linking to the science

Indicator & Target Value**

Monitor*

Current Condition ***

Strategies*

*Vital Signs Monitoring

* Watershed Condition Assessments

*Baseline Water Quality Reports

Current Condition vs Target Value

*Climate Change

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