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  1. Climate Change Scenario Planning: A Tool for Managing Resources in an Era of Uncertainty Kaloko-Honokohau NHP Joshua Tree National Park

  2. Scenario Planning as part of the Planning Toolkit Figure from Peterson et al. Conservation Biology Volume 17, No. 2, April 2003

  3. Scenario Planning • Scenarios Are: • A tool for long-term strategic planning • Compelling narratives of alternative environments in which decisions may be played out • Coherent, internally consistent, and plausible • Scenarios Are Not: • Predictions or Forecasts • A method for arriving at the “most likely” future

  4. One Dimensional vs Scenario Planning One-Dimensional Planning Outcomes A B C D Scenario Planning Possible Futures A Elements Common to A-B Elements Common to A-C B Elements Common to A-D C D

  5. Examples of Scenario Exercises: Shell Oil • Early 1970s, Shell Oil used scenarios for long-term planning. Allowed them to be prepared for the 1970s oil crisis. Scenario planning is a discipline for rediscovering the original entrepreneurial power of creative foresight in contexts of accelerated change, greater complexity, and genuine uncertainty. —Pierre Wack, Royal Dutch/Shell, 1984

  6. Examples of Scenario Exercises: Tucson Water Southwest Surface Water Availability (P-E)

  7. Examples of Scenario Exercises: Tucson Water Some direct Treatment of CO River water Industry standard Surface enhancement Public accepts quality Public pays for better quality Recharge Only Enhanced recharge No direct Treatment of CO River water

  8. Climate Change Scenario Planning Workshop held Nov 13-14, 2007 • Goals: • Challenge assumptions about the future • Foster strategic thinking about how to respond in different situations • Gain insight into how to manage change and plan in the face of uncertainty

  9. Scenario Planning: An Integration of Science and Management Types of Scenarios  different purposes Analyze Internal Dynamics Define Focal Question Build & Test Scenarios Policy Screening List External Drivers Decision makers, scientists, topical experts Decision makers Scientists, topical experts Strategic  testing concepts and models Exploratory moving into the future, e.g., by extending past trends, considering contingencies Anticipatory  aiming toward preferred futures – and avoiding ‘nightmares’

  10. “Summer Soaker” Current Mojave Desert:> 900 meters in elevation

  11. “Summer Soaker” Plausible future Mojave Desert:> 1100 meters in elevation

  12. “Summer Soaker” Potential loss of “transitional” environments

  13. “When it rains, it pours” Fires, 1967-2006: Approx.40,000 acres burned

  14. “When it rains, it pours” Plausible future fires: Approx.600,000 acres burned

  15. Climate Change:Coming to a Park Near You! Time to make a plan Slide courtesy of Jill Baron, USGS

  16. NPS PLANNING FRAMEWORK WHY WHAT HOW GMP Foundation Program Mgmt Plans – RSS Strategic Plan Implementation Plans Annual Performance Plan and Report LONG TERM SHORT TERM

  17. Foundation ****Document Desired Conditions Goals GMP* Goal A Adaptive Management NPS PLANNING FRAMEWORK: linking to the science Indicator & Target Value** Monitor* Current Condition *** Strategies* *Vital Signs Monitoring * Watershed Condition Assessments *Baseline Water Quality Reports Current Condition vs Target Value *Climate Change