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HYDROSPHERE Resource Consultants

HYDROSPHERE Resource Consultants. Severe and Sustained Drought. 29 th Colorado Water Workshop. July 30, 2004. The Project. The beginnings Objectives Hydrology Impacts Responses. What is a drought?. Hydrologic drought Consecutive flows below the mean flow Depends on mean

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HYDROSPHERE Resource Consultants

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  1. HYDROSPHEREResource Consultants Severe and Sustained Drought 29th Colorado Water Workshop July 30, 2004

  2. The Project • The beginnings • Objectives • Hydrology • Impacts • Responses

  3. What is a drought? • Hydrologic drought • Consecutive flows below the mean flow • Depends on mean • Mean depends on period of record • System drought • Low-flow conditions that cause distress • Depends on storage, deliveries, policy

  4. The Drought • System context is c. 1992 • 38-year scenario (1579-1616) • Re-arranged to increase onset intensity • Low flow period, recovery period • 2000 - 10000–year return interval • “Probable extreme drought”

  5. SSD Drought Trace

  6. Impacts • Reservoir storage • Water availability • Power and energy • Water quality • Social • Economic • Environmental

  7. Reservoir Contents

  8. Water Availability

  9. Energy

  10. Water Quality

  11. Mitigation • Actions identified in gaming • Intrastate actions • Interstate actions • Reverse equalization • Relaxation of compact

  12. Lee Ferry Deliveries

  13. Powell

  14. Mead

  15. Depletions

  16. You are here

  17. Powell: SSD vs. Current

  18. Lee Ferry: SSD vs. Current

  19. Mead: SSD vs. Current

  20. The Wisdom of Chairman Yogi • It’s like déjà vu all over again. • It ain’t over till it’s over. • Making predictions is hard, particularly about the future. • The future ain’t what it used to be.

  21. Upper Colorado River Compact Issues • Quantification of states’ depletions • Quantification of PPRs • Quantification and allocation of channel losses • Quantification and allocation of reservoir evaporation • Overdrafts

  22. Intrastate Issues • Quantification of entitlement • Quantification of PPRs • Avoidance of overdrafts • Administration of curtailment • Mechanisms for Subordination/Offsets

  23. Modeling Issues • Colorado River Compact • Upper Colorado River Compact • Mexico Treaty • Intrastate rights • Present Perfected Rights • Physical models • Probabilistic Forecasting

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