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Roadmap for Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Services

Roadmap for Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Services. Outline. Challenges Solution – Seamless suite of Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Services (HEFS) Current vs. HEFS Key HEFS Components Status and Schedule Field Testing Budget Issues and Risks. Background: Water Forecasting Challenges.

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Roadmap for Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Services

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  1. Roadmap for Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Services

  2. Outline • Challenges • Solution – Seamless suite of Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Services (HEFS) • Current vs. HEFS • Key HEFS Components • Status and Schedule • Field Testing • Budget • Issues and Risks

  3. Background: Water Forecasting Challenges • Implement mature hydrologic science into NWS operations within the constraints of existing infrastructure (data, IT, and people) • Calibrate and enhance hydrologic modeling systems for multiple time scales and over diverse hydroclimatic regimes

  4. Problem • Current short-range river forecasts are single-valued • RFC forecasters examine selected set of “what-if” scenarios • Other ensemble products include bias • No integration of short, medium, long range NWP forecasts

  5. Objective: Ensemble Based Probabilistic Forecast Products Run ensembles of inputs through river models to generate hydrologic forecasts Analyze ensemble information to quantify forecast uncertainty and produce a full range of possible hydrologic scenarios

  6. Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Services (HEFS) • End-to-end hydrologic ensemble forecast service currently under development • Comprehensive plan developed in 2007 (the first of its kind in the world) • Based and built on leading-edge science and technology • OHD collaborating with NCEP, OAR and universities through: • The Observing-System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) • Climate Prediction Program for the Americas (CPPA) Core Project • The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) • Research grants • Field deployment via the Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) • Experimental (prototype) components under evaluation at some RFCs • Additional prototype deployments during the next 2 years

  7. Current (Seasonal ESP) vs. HEFS

  8. Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction System:Key Components Weather & Climate Forecasts Verification System Correct NCEP Model Bias QPE, QTE, Soil Moisture Assess Hydrologic Model Error Create Hydrologic Ensembles AssimilateData Correct Hydrologic Ensemble Bias Streamflow Generate Product

  9. XEFS linkage: EXperimental Ensemble Forecast System (XEFS) EPP User Interface Ens. User Interface XEFS Graphical User Interface OFS Flow Data MODs Web Inter-face IFP Ens. Streamflow Prediction System EPP3 ESP2 EnsPost EPG Hydro-meteorol. ensembles Raw flow ens. Ens. Post-Proc. Pp’ed flow ens. Product Generation Subsystem Ensemble/prob. products Ens. Pre-Processor HMOS Ensemble Processor Atmospheric forcing data Hydrologic Ensemble Hindcaster EVS Ensemble verification products Ensemble Verification System 9

  10. Proposed HEFS Components Merging, Joining & Blending Short-Range Medium-Range Other Ensembles Long-Range 10

  11. HEFS – Field Testing Ensemble Pre-Processor Hydrologic Model Output Statistics (HMOS) Ensemble Processor Ensemble Verification Hydrologic Ensemble Hindcaster

  12. CHPS and HEFS Deployment Plans Develop software-engineered AWIPS II baseline software Prototype components development Today CHPS HEFS 4 RFCs 9 RFCs HEFS capabilities first available to RFCs 2008 2009 2010 20112012 FY Funds two NCEP staff and two collaborativeresearch grants 12

  13. HEFS Challenges • Science • HEFS is a tool; research continues on how best to use that tool • How to produce hydrologic ensemble forecasts based on meteorological ensembles • Extreme events (e.g. record flooding) are harder to monitor and forecast: • Record conditions are outside model limits without historical analogs • Products must be understandable / actionable • Forecast cone must be small enough for effective decision support • Better accuracy required from both met and hydro models • Implementation • Prototype software is not baseline software • OHD staff to implement HEFS is focused on CHPS into 2011 • Delivery with CHPS will be prototype code integrated into FEWS • RFCs will need to calibrate HEFS • We need to train forecasters • Web farms will need to handle more complex data requests • RFCs will require additional computer resources to operate in an ensemble mode

  14. Issues and Risks

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